General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCan it be??? Trump Is Losing His Core Support
FiveThirtyEight.com has found something new in the polling data: A loss in core support for Trump.
"To the contrary, Trumps base seems to be eroding. Theres been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 PERCENT in February to just 21 OR 22 PERCENT of the electorate now. (The decline in Trumps strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, TRUMP HAS ALREADY LOST ALMOST A THIRD OF HIS STRONG SUPPORT. And voters who STRONGLY DISAPPROVE OF TRUMP OUTNUMBER THOSE WHO STRONGLY APPROVE OF HIM BY ABOUT A 2-TO-1 RATIO, which could presage an enthusiasm gap that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOPs initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters."
"...they fell considerably from about 29 percent on March 6 when Republicans introduced their HEALTH CARE BILL to around 24 percent on April 1, shortly after the GOP pulled the bill from the House floor. They then remained stable for much of April, before beginning to fall again this month after the reintroduction (and House passage) of the HEALTH CARE BILL and AFTER TRUMP FIRED FBI DIRECTOR JAMES COMEY on May 9. As of Tuesday, just 21.4 percent of Americans strongly approved of Trumps performance."
(emphasis added)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/?ex_cid=Weekly3
The midterms are a long way away. Anything can happen. But support among his core supporters is so low...it must be historical.
bresue
(1,007 posts)Although a lot of my dumpster rogues are not following the news. They seem indifferent to it all...
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)I have family members who are Trumpers. I don't discuss politics with them (no way!!!). But I wonder what they're thinking about it all.
Kaleva
(36,147 posts)They used to post on Facebook pro-Trump and anti-Hillary messages. Now nothing of the sort. The family members and friends who are anti-Trumpers are as vocal as ever.
MiddleClass
(888 posts)Sick of Facebook,
and just want to talk about something else.
At that point, you know exactly what they're thinking.
Remember right after the release of phase 2, Intel on WMD, Senate investigation, the bushes got tired of politics.
That's when, as Donald want us, will get tired of winning, what he meant was tired of scandals
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)They have not said otherwise. Its all about taxes. Their kids go to private schools anyway, so they don't care about de Voss polocies. Thay love him because he puts tax cuts for the hard working Repubs, even if they never worked, before supporting a lot of sloth, fraudulent welfare recipients, like disabled, poor, children elderly, illegals who they really think risk their families to vote, unemployed... they are sick and tired of paying for.
They have no idea what the laws really are, just the Sean Hannity version of BS.
Their visions of the world and ours are inside out.
It's very hard to relate when we have contemp for each other's sources.
whathehell
(28,969 posts)Let it be... Please.
lpbk2713
(42,696 posts)The votes he did get were because he was the rethug candidate
or because they were voting "anyone but Hillary".
Hamlette
(15,394 posts)he got some first time voters, or independents. I have several in my family, not sure they identified with any candidate or party before Trump.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)First came Gary Cohn this past week saying,coal is never coming back,it is not economical. Secondly,Trump bowed down to a Saudi King. Number three is,the Farm Economy is about to go kaboom. No new Corn export deals,China is willing to buy some Beef but that could be just B.S.. And the fourth big one is,Trump Care,these people are finding out what the deal is when they go to their Clinics and Doctors.
Achilleaze
(15,543 posts)Deporting all the workers who Plant cultivate and harvest. this Republican strategy is so far beyond stupid that idiot she does not even begin to touch it.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)Don't know many White Guy's who can or know how to Milk Cows.
No Vested Interest
(5,157 posts)not humans of any race or nationality.
I just came from my local Kroger supermarket, where a gallon of milk cost 99 cents; 1/2 gallon was 69 cents. Other dairy products were lower than usual as well.
Blue_Roses
(12,894 posts)A gallon of milk was between 1.25 and 1.66 depending on what brand you got. I got two gallons and double checked the price at the register just to see if I was hallucinating. What's up with that?
No Vested Interest
(5,157 posts)We know that when there is a large supply of oil/gas, the price comes down.
That is apparently what is going on in the dairy industry.
Remember when the government would prop up prices by buying large quantities of some commodities and storing them, and/or distributing them to schools and certain agencies? Surplus milk was made into cheese, which was then distributed to schools, etc.
Achilleaze
(15,543 posts)and so is factory-farmed industrial meat. And factory-produced processed food-like rations. Life in "farm country" occupations is stultifying. Diet-related diseases are epidemic. Profit-driven health care is expensive. What possible connection could there be?
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Canada subsidizes that industry, so its prices are hurting our dairy guys? Didn't Trump sign an EO or something...we won't buy from Canada or something? I have to look that up.
cstanleytech
(26,082 posts)in Germany at the time and we all know how that turned and I honestly believe if todays Repugnants and Trump had their way that they would do something similar to the illegals as well as to the elderly, poor and disabled.
keithbvadu2
(36,369 posts)Jared is a core example here.
Jared is 'loved' (tolerated) as long as he is useful/profitable.
When things go bad, Trump's loyal followers will blame 'the Jew'.
Breitbart had to be told to tone it down about denigrating jared.
cstanleytech
(26,082 posts)also political prisoners.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)TeamPooka
(24,156 posts)irisblue
(32,829 posts)Skittles
(152,966 posts)people who think Obama made the coal jobs go away, people who think Trump's health plan will be BETTER for them
HOW THE FUCK MORE STUPID CAN THEY BE?
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Their aggressive stupidity again.
Response to Honeycombe8 (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Lithos
(26,397 posts)Nate was the front person, but there are other data scientists there...
For the most part, the issue with 538 is not with the polling, but the projection models which are a little old fashioned at times (per my data scientist friends).
cstanleytech
(26,082 posts)change a lightbulb let alone their minds.
No, its the few more moderate ones with have a working brain cell or two left that are wavering.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,750 posts)We're still stuck with him and all the other awful Republicans those people voted for. It's a year and a half until the mid term elections, and by that time we'll be well on our way to being a third world country.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,789 posts)OnDoutside
(19,908 posts)That Trump is really a Democrat. I don't think enough is being done to paint him and his government as Republican.
BainsBane
(53,003 posts)look at Montana.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)JudyM
(29,122 posts)dchill
(38,324 posts)JustAnotherGen
(31,683 posts)Do not believe freeing of American slaves was a good idea. I think I predicted 22% was the "bottom" for Trump a few months ago.
http://time.com/4236640/donald-trump-racist-supporters/
February 24, 2016
The Times found that nearly 20% of Trump supporters did not approve of freeing the slaves, according to a January YouGov/Economist poll that asked respondents if they supported or disapproved of "the executive order that freed all slaves in the states that were in rebellion against the federal government"Abraham Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation.
Trump himself has never advocated for white supremacy, but some of his followers may. He has, however, called for a moratorium on Muslims entering the United States and called Mexican migrants "rapists."
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)If you predicted 22% was the bottom for Trump....did you mean his CORE supporters? Or overall favorability?
rusty quoin
(6,133 posts)I approve of Ancient Rome enslaving their ancestors. I guess that makes me more traditional and conservative.