Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
Sun May 28, 2017, 08:19 PM May 2017

Can it be??? Trump Is Losing His Core Support

FiveThirtyEight.com has found something new in the polling data: A loss in core support for Trump.

"To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 PERCENT in February to just 21 OR 22 PERCENT of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, TRUMP HAS ALREADY LOST ALMOST A THIRD OF HIS STRONG SUPPORT. And voters who STRONGLY DISAPPROVE OF TRUMP OUTNUMBER THOSE WHO STRONGLY APPROVE OF HIM BY ABOUT A 2-TO-1 RATIO, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters."

"...they fell considerably from about 29 percent on March 6 — when Republicans introduced their HEALTH CARE BILL — to around 24 percent on April 1, shortly after the GOP pulled the bill from the House floor. They then remained stable for much of April, before beginning to fall again this month after the reintroduction (and House passage) of the HEALTH CARE BILL and AFTER TRUMP FIRED FBI DIRECTOR JAMES COMEY on May 9. As of Tuesday, just 21.4 percent of Americans strongly approved of Trump’s performance."

(emphasis added)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/?ex_cid=Weekly3

The midterms are a long way away. Anything can happen. But support among his core supporters is so low...it must be historical.

37 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Can it be??? Trump Is Losing His Core Support (Original Post) Honeycombe8 May 2017 OP
Let us Pray!!!! bresue May 2017 #1
Well, you know when they start peeling away, the loss has hit the heart of his core. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #2
My family members who were Trumpers have gone silent. Kaleva May 2017 #7
When they start telling you they're sick of politics MiddleClass May 2017 #11
Same here. I think they are as Trumpster as ever, because Alice11111 May 2017 #35
.y sentiments exactly. whathehell May 2017 #29
I don't think that many liked Trump to begin with. lpbk2713 May 2017 #3
the deplorables were not republicans (not dems either) Hamlette May 2017 #5
Couple of things to follow, Wellstone ruled May 2017 #4
Republicans are also screwing the farm economy by Achilleaze May 2017 #6
The Large Dairy Guy's are getting hit big time. Wellstone ruled May 2017 #9
I understand there is an oversupply of milk; also most milking of cows done by milking machines, No Vested Interest May 2017 #21
I noticed that too tonight Blue_Roses May 2017 #26
Oversupply leads to lower prices, especially on a product that doesn't keep. No Vested Interest May 2017 #30
Factory-farmed industrial milk is cheap Achilleaze May 2017 #33
Isn't that a Canadian issue that Trump signed an EO for? Honeycombe8 May 2017 #25
Ya but its been done before in Germany with Hitler he blamed the "other" for all the problems cstanleytech May 2017 #13
the "other" - mostly the Jews keithbvadu2 May 2017 #16
Yes it was mostly the jews they did the same though to the gypsies, homosexuals, the disabled and cstanleytech May 2017 #17
Yep...the health care bill is having an impact. Trumpers are paying attention. nt Honeycombe8 May 2017 #24
Trump bowed, then he curtsied like Shirley Temple. :) TeamPooka May 2017 #28
Not fast enough.suffer more cuz you hurt so many. nt irisblue May 2017 #8
I try to have sympathy, but I cannot Skittles May 2017 #19
Yeah you think we are at rock bottom, and they prove Alice11111 May 2017 #36
Message auto-removed Name removed May 2017 #10
Not always Lithos May 2017 #14
Its not the core support, they are so fucking stupid they couldnt figure out how to cstanleytech May 2017 #12
Not that it matters very much. PoindexterOglethorpe May 2017 #15
Very soon tRump will be toxic to Republicons and they will dump him by 25th or impeachment. nt Bernardo de La Paz May 2017 #18
And that's the problem, we've already seen little testers OnDoutside May 2017 #31
It doesn't mean they'll vote for Democrats BainsBane May 2017 #20
I think that 21.4% all live in North Central Indiana INdemo May 2017 #22
If we can successfully change their narrative we could rake in the wins. Let em stay home. JudyM May 2017 #23
K&R. dchill May 2017 #27
Nearly 20% of Trump Supporters JustAnotherGen May 2017 #32
I did not know that. Wow. I don't know how to react to that. It's shocking nt Honeycombe8 May 2017 #34
I'm really older school than them. rusty quoin May 2017 #37

bresue

(1,007 posts)
1. Let us Pray!!!!
Sun May 28, 2017, 08:23 PM
May 2017

Although a lot of my dumpster rogues are not following the news. They seem indifferent to it all...

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
2. Well, you know when they start peeling away, the loss has hit the heart of his core.
Sun May 28, 2017, 08:29 PM
May 2017

I have family members who are Trumpers. I don't discuss politics with them (no way!!!). But I wonder what they're thinking about it all.

Kaleva

(36,147 posts)
7. My family members who were Trumpers have gone silent.
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:33 PM
May 2017

They used to post on Facebook pro-Trump and anti-Hillary messages. Now nothing of the sort. The family members and friends who are anti-Trumpers are as vocal as ever.

MiddleClass

(888 posts)
11. When they start telling you they're sick of politics
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:49 PM
May 2017

Sick of Facebook,

and just want to talk about something else.

At that point, you know exactly what they're thinking.

Remember right after the release of phase 2, Intel on WMD, Senate investigation, the bushes got tired of politics.

That's when, as Donald want us, will get tired of winning, what he meant was tired of scandals

Alice11111

(5,730 posts)
35. Same here. I think they are as Trumpster as ever, because
Mon May 29, 2017, 04:21 PM
May 2017

They have not said otherwise. Its all about taxes. Their kids go to private schools anyway, so they don't care about de Voss polocies. Thay love him because he puts tax cuts for the hard working Repubs, even if they never worked, before supporting a lot of sloth, fraudulent welfare recipients, like disabled, poor, children elderly, illegals who they really think risk their families to vote, unemployed... they are sick and tired of paying for.
They have no idea what the laws really are, just the Sean Hannity version of BS.
Their visions of the world and ours are inside out.

It's very hard to relate when we have contemp for each other's sources.

lpbk2713

(42,696 posts)
3. I don't think that many liked Trump to begin with.
Sun May 28, 2017, 08:30 PM
May 2017



The votes he did get were because he was the rethug candidate
or because they were voting "anyone but Hillary".

Hamlette

(15,394 posts)
5. the deplorables were not republicans (not dems either)
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:04 PM
May 2017

he got some first time voters, or independents. I have several in my family, not sure they identified with any candidate or party before Trump.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
4. Couple of things to follow,
Sun May 28, 2017, 08:41 PM
May 2017

First came Gary Cohn this past week saying,coal is never coming back,it is not economical. Secondly,Trump bowed down to a Saudi King. Number three is,the Farm Economy is about to go kaboom. No new Corn export deals,China is willing to buy some Beef but that could be just B.S.. And the fourth big one is,Trump Care,these people are finding out what the deal is when they go to their Clinics and Doctors.

Achilleaze

(15,543 posts)
6. Republicans are also screwing the farm economy by
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:27 PM
May 2017

Deporting all the workers who Plant cultivate and harvest. this Republican strategy is so far beyond stupid that idiot she does not even begin to touch it.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
9. The Large Dairy Guy's are getting hit big time.
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:46 PM
May 2017

Don't know many White Guy's who can or know how to Milk Cows.

No Vested Interest

(5,157 posts)
21. I understand there is an oversupply of milk; also most milking of cows done by milking machines,
Sun May 28, 2017, 10:45 PM
May 2017

not humans of any race or nationality.

I just came from my local Kroger supermarket, where a gallon of milk cost 99 cents; 1/2 gallon was 69 cents. Other dairy products were lower than usual as well.

Blue_Roses

(12,894 posts)
26. I noticed that too tonight
Mon May 29, 2017, 12:09 AM
May 2017

A gallon of milk was between 1.25 and 1.66 depending on what brand you got. I got two gallons and double checked the price at the register just to see if I was hallucinating. What's up with that?

No Vested Interest

(5,157 posts)
30. Oversupply leads to lower prices, especially on a product that doesn't keep.
Mon May 29, 2017, 02:35 AM
May 2017

We know that when there is a large supply of oil/gas, the price comes down.
That is apparently what is going on in the dairy industry.
Remember when the government would prop up prices by buying large quantities of some commodities and storing them, and/or distributing them to schools and certain agencies? Surplus milk was made into cheese, which was then distributed to schools, etc.

Achilleaze

(15,543 posts)
33. Factory-farmed industrial milk is cheap
Mon May 29, 2017, 07:57 AM
May 2017

and so is factory-farmed industrial meat. And factory-produced processed food-like rations. Life in "farm country" occupations is stultifying. Diet-related diseases are epidemic. Profit-driven health care is expensive. What possible connection could there be?

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
25. Isn't that a Canadian issue that Trump signed an EO for?
Mon May 29, 2017, 12:01 AM
May 2017

Canada subsidizes that industry, so its prices are hurting our dairy guys? Didn't Trump sign an EO or something...we won't buy from Canada or something? I have to look that up.

cstanleytech

(26,082 posts)
13. Ya but its been done before in Germany with Hitler he blamed the "other" for all the problems
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:55 PM
May 2017

in Germany at the time and we all know how that turned and I honestly believe if todays Repugnants and Trump had their way that they would do something similar to the illegals as well as to the elderly, poor and disabled.

keithbvadu2

(36,369 posts)
16. the "other" - mostly the Jews
Sun May 28, 2017, 10:05 PM
May 2017

Jared is a core example here.

Jared is 'loved' (tolerated) as long as he is useful/profitable.

When things go bad, Trump's loyal followers will blame 'the Jew'.

Breitbart had to be told to tone it down about denigrating jared.

cstanleytech

(26,082 posts)
17. Yes it was mostly the jews they did the same though to the gypsies, homosexuals, the disabled and
Sun May 28, 2017, 10:11 PM
May 2017

also political prisoners.

Skittles

(152,966 posts)
19. I try to have sympathy, but I cannot
Sun May 28, 2017, 10:37 PM
May 2017

people who think Obama made the coal jobs go away, people who think Trump's health plan will be BETTER for them

HOW THE FUCK MORE STUPID CAN THEY BE?

Response to Honeycombe8 (Original post)

Lithos

(26,397 posts)
14. Not always
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:56 PM
May 2017

Nate was the front person, but there are other data scientists there...

For the most part, the issue with 538 is not with the polling, but the projection models which are a little old fashioned at times (per my data scientist friends).

cstanleytech

(26,082 posts)
12. Its not the core support, they are so fucking stupid they couldnt figure out how to
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:52 PM
May 2017

change a lightbulb let alone their minds.
No, its the few more moderate ones with have a working brain cell or two left that are wavering.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,750 posts)
15. Not that it matters very much.
Sun May 28, 2017, 09:59 PM
May 2017

We're still stuck with him and all the other awful Republicans those people voted for. It's a year and a half until the mid term elections, and by that time we'll be well on our way to being a third world country.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
31. And that's the problem, we've already seen little testers
Mon May 29, 2017, 03:06 AM
May 2017

That Trump is really a Democrat. I don't think enough is being done to paint him and his government as Republican.

JustAnotherGen

(31,683 posts)
32. Nearly 20% of Trump Supporters
Mon May 29, 2017, 05:12 AM
May 2017

Do not believe freeing of American slaves was a good idea. I think I predicted 22% was the "bottom" for Trump a few months ago.

http://time.com/4236640/donald-trump-racist-supporters/

February 24, 2016

Donald Trump appears to have high levels of support among the nation's intolerant population, according to a New York Times deep dive into polling data.
The Times found that nearly 20% of Trump supporters did not approve of freeing the slaves, according to a January YouGov/Economist poll that asked respondents if they supported or disapproved of "the executive order that freed all slaves in the states that were in rebellion against the federal government"—Abraham Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation.

Trump himself has never advocated for white supremacy, but some of his followers may. He has, however, called for a moratorium on Muslims entering the United States and called Mexican migrants "rapists."

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
34. I did not know that. Wow. I don't know how to react to that. It's shocking nt
Mon May 29, 2017, 10:58 AM
May 2017

If you predicted 22% was the bottom for Trump....did you mean his CORE supporters? Or overall favorability?

 

rusty quoin

(6,133 posts)
37. I'm really older school than them.
Tue May 30, 2017, 06:34 AM
May 2017

I approve of Ancient Rome enslaving their ancestors. I guess that makes me more traditional and conservative.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Can it be??? Trump Is Los...