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kpete

(71,901 posts)
Sun May 20, 2012, 12:52 PM May 2012

Vanderbilt poll: Obama closes gap with Romney Tennesseans don't like focus of legislature

Source: The Tennessean

President Barack Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in traditionally conservative Tennessee, according to a new Vanderbilt University pol..

The poll also found that Tennesseans weren’t thrilled with the Republican-led General Assembly’s frequent focus on social, cultural and religious issues this year. But Republican Gov. Bill Haslam managed to remain above the fray, winning approval from 61 percent of poll participants.

“Tennessee is clearly a red state,” said John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt. “But these data show that the public is much more moderate than our state legislature.”

The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120520/NEWS/305170107/Vanderbilt-poll-Obama-closes-gap-Romney

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Vanderbilt poll: Obama closes gap with Romney Tennesseans don't like focus of legislature (Original Post) kpete May 2012 OP
He ain't winning Tennessee bluestateguy May 2012 #1
unless the folks in that state PatrynXX May 2012 #3
I'm thinking that Ramney will win Tennessee by a less overwhelming margin that Bush in '04 or McCain bluestateguy May 2012 #4
Romney has underperformed in the south all year Renew Deal May 2012 #44
OK....let's start with some basics ..... Swede Atlanta May 2012 #9
Get a life. broiles May 2012 #10
+1 Major Nikon May 2012 #16
+2 groundloop May 2012 #26
I will continue to pronounce his name Ramney bluestateguy May 2012 #12
Rather Romney? secondvariety May 2012 #18
"The use of ain’t was widespread in the 18th century and is still perfectly normal..,. PoliticAverse May 2012 #19
Do you agree with the OP or just toss these gems of wisdom out and leave? Come back and talk! freshwest May 2012 #21
Since we're being so instructive, I would like to point out that a proper ellipsis... AzDar May 2012 #23
Post removed Post removed May 2012 #25
Uhhh. I believe they intentionally used those terms for emphasis. southerncrone May 2012 #31
How bout we just call him fuckramney? Ain't to your lik'n either I guess. lonestarnot May 2012 #43
Ain't is vernacular English dipsydoodle May 2012 #46
the real value of the poll is that it shows grantcart May 2012 #14
Remember Romney's Mormon faith. Our "born-agains" don't really care for that. SharonAnn May 2012 #28
I agree SharonAnn. southerncrone May 2012 #32
They may not care for it, but some of their goals nicely dovetail. Lars39 May 2012 #34
Regardless it still means R-money has to campaign and spend money the state Major Nikon May 2012 #17
That radical legislature that does not really represent the ideals of the people is what happens jwirr May 2012 #2
Romney is winning the state. Dawson Leery May 2012 #5
It doesn't matter if Obama wins Tennessee or not... Drunken Irishman May 2012 #6
your are correct in many ways liberalnationalist May 2012 #24
Meh. It's happening again. Igel May 2012 #7
not as used to seeing the 1000%... happerbolic May 2012 #13
Fun, but useless. The only state he has a chance of winning below the Mason-Dixon is Florida. onehandle May 2012 #8
Many "Christians" will hold their nose and vote Iliyah May 2012 #11
In all honesty we have the Religious Right to thank for the closeness of this poll TlalocW May 2012 #15
there's that word "ain't" again. iemitsu May 2012 #30
I'm sure your lack of capitalization strikes some people the same way. Lars39 May 2012 #33
i suppose it does. iemitsu May 2012 #35
ahh...not too late to add it. :-) Lars39 May 2012 #36
probably too late now. iemitsu May 2012 #37
I think one of the new features here is the ability to edit for a long time. Lars39 May 2012 #38
thanks again. iemitsu May 2012 #39
Glad to help if I can, iemitsu. Lars39 May 2012 #40
:) thanks for the welcome. iemitsu May 2012 #41
eh, don't worry about not posting a lot...the rest of us are just gabby. Lars39 May 2012 #42
That and alot of us have no life cstanleytech May 2012 #45
Tennesee dubbed itself as the "Belt buckle of the Bible Belt" BumRushDaShow May 2012 #20
May all the states with Teabagger goons in their legislatures see the light! freshwest May 2012 #22
just another sign that we only have one political party in America nineteen50 May 2012 #27
K&R Tarheel_Dem May 2012 #29
I salivate at the thoughts of TN going blue...but it'll be a miracle if it happened. Auntie Bush May 2012 #47

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
1. He ain't winning Tennessee
Sun May 20, 2012, 12:55 PM
May 2012

If he can keep Ramney to under a plus +10 win in that state I would call that a symbolic victory and a basis for trying to win it in 2016.

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
3. unless the folks in that state
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:07 PM
May 2012

who are typically rather Christian figure out they might be voting for a moron and know that the Muslim BS is just that. they might go to obama.

Not that it should matter but since it does that could happen...

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
4. I'm thinking that Ramney will win Tennessee by a less overwhelming margin that Bush in '04 or McCain
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:12 PM
May 2012

Not because of any great love for Obama, but lighter evangelical turnout for a Mormon candidate, as well as complacency that Tennessee is a given win for Ramney.

Renew Deal

(81,802 posts)
44. Romney has underperformed in the south all year
Wed May 23, 2012, 11:32 PM
May 2012

So maybe this will play out in the GE. I still don't think Obama wins TN.

 

Swede Atlanta

(3,596 posts)
9. OK....let's start with some basics .....
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:58 PM
May 2012

Let's use correct grammar...

"ain't" does not exist in the English language. The correct usage is "he isn't winning..."

The prospective opponent is not Ramney but rather Romney...

Just pointing out ways to improve the efficacy of your posts.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
19. "The use of ain’t was widespread in the 18th century and is still perfectly normal..,.
Sun May 20, 2012, 04:17 PM
May 2012

in many dialects and informal contexts in both North America and Britain."

http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ain%27t?region=us&q=ain%27t

 

AzDar

(14,023 posts)
23. Since we're being so instructive, I would like to point out that a proper ellipsis...
Sun May 20, 2012, 06:28 PM
May 2012

contains three (3) dots.

Just pointing out ways to improve the efficacy of your posts.

You're welcome.

Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

southerncrone

(5,506 posts)
31. Uhhh. I believe they intentionally used those terms for emphasis.
Tue May 22, 2012, 12:22 AM
May 2012

Plus, if you're talking about The South, "ain't" is ALWAYS acceptable. Heck, it's our favorite word!
If you have anything to do w/Atlanta, then you should KNOW this! LOL

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
46. Ain't is vernacular English
Thu May 24, 2012, 07:01 PM
May 2012

A simple contraction of is not for example.

Of course being English you already know that.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
14. the real value of the poll is that it shows
Sun May 20, 2012, 02:52 PM
May 2012

1) efforts by radical Republican legislatures are depressing the lean right vote and energizing the left

and

2) Romney is putting his base asleep. Romney's negatives in this poll in Tennessee are higer than Obama's.

While Tennessee almost certainly will got to Romney

a) Romney may have to spend money and time to defend the reddest of states
b) He has to compete against not only Obama but the negative effects of a far right wing state legislature
c) If these trends hold up in other states with radical Republican legislatures then Romney is in a world of whole lot of hurt.

Now before we write of Tennessee off completely there is one other dynamic that has to be noted. The more Romney campaigns and the more people see and know about him the less likely they are to vote for him. Romney currently has a 7 point lead among registered voters in Tennessee, he needs to keep that margin and get them to care enough to actually go and vote.

While it is fairly certain that on election day a majority of Tennesseans will prefer Romney to Obama it is not certain that a majority of those willing to go and vote will.

SharonAnn

(13,767 posts)
28. Remember Romney's Mormon faith. Our "born-agains" don't really care for that.
Mon May 21, 2012, 01:02 PM
May 2012

So there could be a lot of apathetic R's who are born-again, fundamentalist, Christians.
Especially since the Pentecostals might stay home.

southerncrone

(5,506 posts)
32. I agree SharonAnn.
Tue May 22, 2012, 12:31 AM
May 2012

There was a Mormon massacre near me here in TN in the 1800's. Not much has changed here since then in many ways......especially in the Religious Tolerance Dept.

The BIGGY will be the JOBS situation. If the economy & job opportunities ramp up between now & Nov. then Obama may actually have a shot.

Unfortunately the gas price will also play into TN vote. I suspect R's will use it as their Ace in the Hole. (no pun intended)

Lars39

(26,093 posts)
34. They may not care for it, but some of their goals nicely dovetail.
Tue May 22, 2012, 12:35 AM
May 2012

I'm thinking of how the Southern Baptists and Catholics get along when it comes to abortion and sometimes contraception. It will be interesting to see the results.

Major Nikon

(36,814 posts)
17. Regardless it still means R-money has to campaign and spend money the state
Sun May 20, 2012, 03:53 PM
May 2012

I suspect there will be other previously red states where this is the case thanks to the teavangelicals. R-money is losing the electoral college race, which is really the only one that matters.

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
2. That radical legislature that does not really represent the ideals of the people is what happens
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:00 PM
May 2012

when powerful groups like corporations/churches get behind THEIR candidate. In the end it is only the corporations/churches that have representation. The people no longer matter.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
6. It doesn't matter if Obama wins Tennessee or not...
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:38 PM
May 2012

If it's in play, Romney is in trouble. This just shows his weakness in the south and there are a few southern states that Obama CAN win - namely Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia (well, technically Florida too, but sometimes I forget they're a southern state).

 

liberalnationalist

(170 posts)
24. your are correct in many ways
Sun May 20, 2012, 10:17 PM
May 2012

For instance, I agree with you and then show you Texas. Texas with a massive 38 electoral votes is up for grabs and the Republicans know it. Why, the people see throught the rightwing for the first time. I live in NC and Obama is going to win it. Why, becasue according to Karl Rove, he has them in a dead heat in South Carolina.

If Georgia is in play that is 16 electoral votes.

Montana is in play.


Raw Money is screwed.

Igel

(35,197 posts)
7. Meh. It's happening again.
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:39 PM
May 2012

We cite all the polls showing the increase in our guy's polling results as golden.

We dismiss all the polls showing a decrease in our guy's polling results as flawed and wrong.

By election day in 2008 I fully expected Obama's polling results, after all the 2-5% jumps in the polls, to be at least 395% of voter registration--and that's in the deepest red precincts. In swing states I expected him to take upwards of 700% of voter registration numbers. That was his due, and anything less could only be due to voter and electoral fraud. There was no way in 2010 that the Democrats could have not taken every election, from dog catcher to Senator, with a minimum of 250% of voter turnout (and, in some, I expected a minimum of 1000% of voter turnout--unless there was fraud, of course).

The good news it that's probably my last poll post until the spate of posts saying that the early exit polls based on partial, preliminary numbers in a handful of precincts and on a outrageously incorrect and inadequate voter-turnout model are cited as God's very own truth.

 

happerbolic

(140 posts)
13. not as used to seeing the 1000%...
Sun May 20, 2012, 02:43 PM
May 2012

...mark much, but hey, works out pretty well when keeping those pesky half-points fouling up the conversation

Did i hear right, here at DU, that these polling figures are based usually by results from call-outs to 'hard-wired' telephones? Has anybody ever received one on a cell phone yet?

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
8. Fun, but useless. The only state he has a chance of winning below the Mason-Dixon is Florida.
Sun May 20, 2012, 01:40 PM
May 2012

And even there, he needs to overcome the intense and deep voting corruption that defines that insanely fucked up state.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
11. Many "Christians" will hold their nose and vote
Sun May 20, 2012, 02:19 PM
May 2012

for Mittens because they have the ministers and super pacs telling them that he is the lesser of two evils.

Pres O is a Christian, but these people have painted him otherwise as not. He is the Christian who believes the way most Christians believe but atlas, these people are influenced by lies, isn't that peachy.

The New Times has a article about how Mitten's belief in the Moromism is deep, ok, so what? Pres O's Christian belief is deep as well. But the corporate media distorts that.

If the so called Christians open their eyes they will see it, but I won't hold my breath.

TlalocW

(15,359 posts)
15. In all honesty we have the Religious Right to thank for the closeness of this poll
Sun May 20, 2012, 03:48 PM
May 2012

For years, they've told their followers (rightly) that Mormonism is a cult. They're not like us; they don't believe in Jesus the way we believe in Jesus. Boogy boogy boogy. Now the religious right bigwigs on down to the preachers of the smallest churches are trying to do a 180, but they're fighting against years of their own indoctrination, and oftentimes their support of Romney is rather tepid to begin with. In the meantime, they've also convinced their followers (wrongly) that President Obama is a Muslim. He went to a Madrassa! His dad was Muslim! He learned respect for other religions! Boogy boogy boogy.

So in their eyes, this year is coming down to a vote between two non-Christian men. America is lost. It doesn't matter which one wins because surely, the anti-Christ will reveal itself shortly after the elections, and they'll all up raptured up. Time to gather at the Creationist Museum and pray or just watch Nascar but ain't no use in voting.

TlalocW

iemitsu

(3,888 posts)
30. there's that word "ain't" again.
Mon May 21, 2012, 09:42 PM
May 2012

Last edited Wed May 23, 2012, 12:14 AM - Edit history (1)

i was going to agree with all you said but then - that word - stopped me in my tracks.
i couldn't think straight any longer.


iemitsu

(3,888 posts)
35. i suppose it does.
Tue May 22, 2012, 12:37 AM
May 2012

i should have used the sarcasm emote as i was really picking on the grammar guerrillas up-thread.

Lars39

(26,093 posts)
38. I think one of the new features here is the ability to edit for a long time.
Tue May 22, 2012, 11:34 PM
May 2012

The tag is in the "smilies" button which is under the "reply title" field.

iemitsu

(3,888 posts)
39. thanks again.
Wed May 23, 2012, 12:09 AM
May 2012

for the good information on the increased time for editing and where to find mr sarcasm.
also for your good nature.

iemitsu

(3,888 posts)
41. :) thanks for the welcome.
Wed May 23, 2012, 12:19 AM
May 2012

i've really been reading DU since the year 2000 but don't often open my mouth.
one might say i'm slow.
i added a jester to the offending post because i couldn't find the sarcasm emote.
maybe i'll figure it out some day?


by slow, i really meant "low post".

BumRushDaShow

(127,313 posts)
20. Tennesee dubbed itself as the "Belt buckle of the Bible Belt"
Sun May 20, 2012, 05:33 PM
May 2012

This should be interesting to see... I.e., the repukes there may not vote for the top of the ticket at all.

Auntie Bush

(17,528 posts)
47. I salivate at the thoughts of TN going blue...but it'll be a miracle if it happened.
Thu May 24, 2012, 10:36 PM
May 2012

If it is close in TN...maybe some other red states might go blue.

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