Vanderbilt poll: Obama closes gap with Romney Tennesseans don't like focus of legislature
Source: The Tennessean
President Barack Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in traditionally conservative Tennessee, according to a new Vanderbilt University pol..
The poll also found that Tennesseans werent thrilled with the Republican-led General Assemblys frequent focus on social, cultural and religious issues this year. But Republican Gov. Bill Haslam managed to remain above the fray, winning approval from 61 percent of poll participants.
Tennessee is clearly a red state, said John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt. But these data show that the public is much more moderate than our state legislature.
The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Read more: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120520/NEWS/305170107/Vanderbilt-poll-Obama-closes-gap-Romney
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)If he can keep Ramney to under a plus +10 win in that state I would call that a symbolic victory and a basis for trying to win it in 2016.
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)who are typically rather Christian figure out they might be voting for a moron and know that the Muslim BS is just that. they might go to obama.
Not that it should matter but since it does that could happen...
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)Not because of any great love for Obama, but lighter evangelical turnout for a Mormon candidate, as well as complacency that Tennessee is a given win for Ramney.
Renew Deal
(81,802 posts)So maybe this will play out in the GE. I still don't think Obama wins TN.
Swede Atlanta
(3,596 posts)Let's use correct grammar...
"ain't" does not exist in the English language. The correct usage is "he isn't winning..."
The prospective opponent is not Ramney but rather Romney...
Just pointing out ways to improve the efficacy of your posts.
broiles
(1,361 posts)Hey, I just realized my spell checker accepts "ain't". So there ya' go
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)and use the word ain't.
secondvariety
(1,245 posts)I thought it was Mitt Romney.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)in many dialects and informal contexts in both North America and Britain."
http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ain%27t?region=us&q=ain%27t
freshwest
(53,661 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)contains three (3) dots.
Just pointing out ways to improve the efficacy of your posts.
You're welcome.
Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)
Post removed
southerncrone
(5,506 posts)Plus, if you're talking about The South, "ain't" is ALWAYS acceptable. Heck, it's our favorite word!
If you have anything to do w/Atlanta, then you should KNOW this! LOL
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)A simple contraction of is not for example.
Of course being English you already know that.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)1) efforts by radical Republican legislatures are depressing the lean right vote and energizing the left
and
2) Romney is putting his base asleep. Romney's negatives in this poll in Tennessee are higer than Obama's.
While Tennessee almost certainly will got to Romney
a) Romney may have to spend money and time to defend the reddest of states
b) He has to compete against not only Obama but the negative effects of a far right wing state legislature
c) If these trends hold up in other states with radical Republican legislatures then Romney is in a world of whole lot of hurt.
Now before we write of Tennessee off completely there is one other dynamic that has to be noted. The more Romney campaigns and the more people see and know about him the less likely they are to vote for him. Romney currently has a 7 point lead among registered voters in Tennessee, he needs to keep that margin and get them to care enough to actually go and vote.
While it is fairly certain that on election day a majority of Tennesseans will prefer Romney to Obama it is not certain that a majority of those willing to go and vote will.
SharonAnn
(13,767 posts)So there could be a lot of apathetic R's who are born-again, fundamentalist, Christians.
Especially since the Pentecostals might stay home.
southerncrone
(5,506 posts)There was a Mormon massacre near me here in TN in the 1800's. Not much has changed here since then in many ways......especially in the Religious Tolerance Dept.
The BIGGY will be the JOBS situation. If the economy & job opportunities ramp up between now & Nov. then Obama may actually have a shot.
Unfortunately the gas price will also play into TN vote. I suspect R's will use it as their Ace in the Hole. (no pun intended)
Lars39
(26,093 posts)I'm thinking of how the Southern Baptists and Catholics get along when it comes to abortion and sometimes contraception. It will be interesting to see the results.
Major Nikon
(36,814 posts)I suspect there will be other previously red states where this is the case thanks to the teavangelicals. R-money is losing the electoral college race, which is really the only one that matters.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)when powerful groups like corporations/churches get behind THEIR candidate. In the end it is only the corporations/churches that have representation. The people no longer matter.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)He may not win by much, but he will win it.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)If it's in play, Romney is in trouble. This just shows his weakness in the south and there are a few southern states that Obama CAN win - namely Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia (well, technically Florida too, but sometimes I forget they're a southern state).
liberalnationalist
(170 posts)For instance, I agree with you and then show you Texas. Texas with a massive 38 electoral votes is up for grabs and the Republicans know it. Why, the people see throught the rightwing for the first time. I live in NC and Obama is going to win it. Why, becasue according to Karl Rove, he has them in a dead heat in South Carolina.
If Georgia is in play that is 16 electoral votes.
Montana is in play.
Raw Money is screwed.
Igel
(35,197 posts)We cite all the polls showing the increase in our guy's polling results as golden.
We dismiss all the polls showing a decrease in our guy's polling results as flawed and wrong.
By election day in 2008 I fully expected Obama's polling results, after all the 2-5% jumps in the polls, to be at least 395% of voter registration--and that's in the deepest red precincts. In swing states I expected him to take upwards of 700% of voter registration numbers. That was his due, and anything less could only be due to voter and electoral fraud. There was no way in 2010 that the Democrats could have not taken every election, from dog catcher to Senator, with a minimum of 250% of voter turnout (and, in some, I expected a minimum of 1000% of voter turnout--unless there was fraud, of course).
The good news it that's probably my last poll post until the spate of posts saying that the early exit polls based on partial, preliminary numbers in a handful of precincts and on a outrageously incorrect and inadequate voter-turnout model are cited as God's very own truth.
happerbolic
(140 posts)...mark much, but hey, works out pretty well when keeping those pesky half-points fouling up the conversation
Did i hear right, here at DU, that these polling figures are based usually by results from call-outs to 'hard-wired' telephones? Has anybody ever received one on a cell phone yet?
onehandle
(51,122 posts)And even there, he needs to overcome the intense and deep voting corruption that defines that insanely fucked up state.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)for Mittens because they have the ministers and super pacs telling them that he is the lesser of two evils.
Pres O is a Christian, but these people have painted him otherwise as not. He is the Christian who believes the way most Christians believe but atlas, these people are influenced by lies, isn't that peachy.
The New Times has a article about how Mitten's belief in the Moromism is deep, ok, so what? Pres O's Christian belief is deep as well. But the corporate media distorts that.
If the so called Christians open their eyes they will see it, but I won't hold my breath.
TlalocW
(15,359 posts)For years, they've told their followers (rightly) that Mormonism is a cult. They're not like us; they don't believe in Jesus the way we believe in Jesus. Boogy boogy boogy. Now the religious right bigwigs on down to the preachers of the smallest churches are trying to do a 180, but they're fighting against years of their own indoctrination, and oftentimes their support of Romney is rather tepid to begin with. In the meantime, they've also convinced their followers (wrongly) that President Obama is a Muslim. He went to a Madrassa! His dad was Muslim! He learned respect for other religions! Boogy boogy boogy.
So in their eyes, this year is coming down to a vote between two non-Christian men. America is lost. It doesn't matter which one wins because surely, the anti-Christ will reveal itself shortly after the elections, and they'll all up raptured up. Time to gather at the Creationist Museum and pray or just watch Nascar but ain't no use in voting.
TlalocW
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)Last edited Wed May 23, 2012, 12:14 AM - Edit history (1)
i was going to agree with all you said but then - that word - stopped me in my tracks.
i couldn't think straight any longer.
Lars39
(26,093 posts)iemitsu
(3,888 posts)i should have used the sarcasm emote as i was really picking on the grammar guerrillas up-thread.
Lars39
(26,093 posts)iemitsu
(3,888 posts)besides i don't know where that sarcasm thingy comes from.
Lars39
(26,093 posts)The tag is in the "smilies" button which is under the "reply title" field.
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)for the good information on the increased time for editing and where to find mr sarcasm.
also for your good nature.
Lars39
(26,093 posts)Oh, and welcome to DU !!!
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)i've really been reading DU since the year 2000 but don't often open my mouth.
one might say i'm slow.
i added a jester to the offending post because i couldn't find the sarcasm emote.
maybe i'll figure it out some day?
by slow, i really meant "low post".
Lars39
(26,093 posts)cstanleytech
(26,080 posts)BumRushDaShow
(127,313 posts)This should be interesting to see... I.e., the repukes there may not vote for the top of the ticket at all.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)nineteen50
(1,187 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,211 posts)Auntie Bush
(17,528 posts)If it is close in TN...maybe some other red states might go blue.