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brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 07:15 AM Oct 2020

SurveyMonkey poll: Young voters' red-state blue wall

Source: Axios

There are only five states in the U.S. where voters younger than 35 embrace President Trump over Joe Biden, and none are swing states, according to new 50-state SurveyMonkey-Tableau data for Axios.

Why it matters: These scattered red spots in a sea of blue vividly illustrate Trump's peril if young people were to actually turn out this year. Put another way, Trump's path to re-election depends heavily on younger adults staying home.

The data also serves as a warning for the Republican Party in nearly every state as it looks beyond one presidential contest.

By the numbers: Among 640,328 likely voters surveyed nationally across multiple waves from June through this week, Trump maintained a clear lead over Biden with the under-35 set in Wyoming (61%-39%), South Dakota (57%-41%), Arkansas (56%-43%), Idaho (55%-45%) and West Virginia (53%-45%).
* In some other red states, younger voters strongly supported Biden over Trump — including two pivotal ones, Texas (59%-40%) and Georgia (60%-39%), and even deep-red South Carolina (56%-43%).
* Trump and Biden were practically neck-and-neck among young voters in another five red states. Biden appeared to have a very slight edge with young voters in Alabama (51%-48%), while Trump appeared to be slightly ahead in North Dakota (52%-48%), Kentucky (51%-48%), Oklahoma (50%-48%) and Alaska (50%-49%).
* Biden led Trump with younger voters by ranges of between 18-28 percentage points in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


Read more: https://www.axios.com/surveymonkey-poll-young-voters-00c52a12-a632-4801-a81f-528467310f7c.html

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SurveyMonkey poll: Young voters' red-state blue wall (Original Post) brooklynite Oct 2020 OP
I would have never imagined Idaho was one of those states jmowreader Oct 2020 #1
trump is +10 in Idaho w/under 35 crowd though Roland99 Oct 2020 #7
These statistics give me hope for the future. Lonestarblue Oct 2020 #2
Best news in a long time bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #3
K&R Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #4
Hope it makes a difference in Senate too IronLionZion Oct 2020 #5
Key is the young vote getting off their collective asses and voting. NoMoreRepugs Oct 2020 #6
I think they've been ambivalent about voting previously Bayard Oct 2020 #8
Good to see paleotn Oct 2020 #9
If accurate, these are terrible numbers for Trump. yardwork Oct 2020 #10
It is all about turnout of this demographic rkleinberger Oct 2020 #11

jmowreader

(50,447 posts)
1. I would have never imagined Idaho was one of those states
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 07:37 AM
Oct 2020

If this article is correct, heavy-enough millennial turnout means the unimaginable: 4-EV and 5-EV blue states with no ocean frontage.

Lonestarblue

(9,874 posts)
2. These statistics give me hope for the future.
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 07:50 AM
Oct 2020

If young people will just get out and vote, they have the power to decimate the Republican Party and force it to back away from its racist, homophobic, anti-woman, anti-immigrant, anti-civil rights policies. That bodes well for the future.

I hope the DNC has good outreach programs to attract more and more younger voters to the Democratic Party.

IronLionZion

(45,250 posts)
5. Hope it makes a difference in Senate too
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 08:51 AM
Oct 2020

SC, Georgia, and Texas have competitive senate races this year, are less red than they used to be, and high turnout can make a big difference.

Bayard

(21,801 posts)
8. I think they've been ambivalent about voting previously
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 11:23 AM
Oct 2020

Because they thought it didn't matter. This time, it very obviously does. Just because they are younger doesn't mean they're stupid.

paleotn

(17,778 posts)
9. Good to see
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 02:58 PM
Oct 2020

where it matters....AZ, FL, MI, GA, TX, NC, PA, WI and even SC for Jamie Harrison (164 electoral votes - 146 congressional seats). On the other hand, I couldn't care less about AR, AK, ID, WV, AL ND, SD, KY or OK (48 electoral votes - 30 congressional seats).

rkleinberger

(155 posts)
11. It is all about turnout of this demographic
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 04:41 PM
Oct 2020

So if the 18 to 29 demographic turns out in large numbers or at least in greater numbers than 2016, they will flip Texas and Georgia for sure and maybe give Jamie Harrison a win in South Carolina. I would assume that people of color in this demographic hopefully would be hyper motivated to the polls above the standard overall demographic. They are the largest voting group. I really hope Democrats are going after them in the last two weeks with everything! They would create the a Blue Tsunami.

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