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Wed May 5, 2021, 07:57 AM

U.S. fertility dips to its lowest rate since the 1970s

Source: Axios

The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped by 4% last year compared to 2019, the lowest it's been in nearly 50 years, according to provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics.

Why it matters: The data corroborates previous surveys that predicted a "COVID baby bust," with women reporting they were postponing pregnancy and having fewer children, as well surveys indicating less sexual activity overall.

By the numbers: There were 55.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 last year. It is the sixth straight year the number of births in the U.S. have fallen, CDC data shows.

There was an overall decline in all age groups between 15 to 44. Brady Hamilton, the lead author of the study, called those drops "unusual" and "extraordinary." Births had been rising for women in their 30s, he said.


Read more: https://www.axios.com/us-fertility-dips-to-its-lowest-rate-since-the-1970s-48382972-80ba-4221-9e59-fc503d3f6b67.html

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Reply U.S. fertility dips to its lowest rate since the 1970s (Original post)
brooklynite May 5 OP
soothsayer May 5 #1
brooklynite May 5 #2
LisaL May 5 #3
soothsayer May 5 #15
enough May 5 #4
muriel_volestrangler May 5 #16
Unwind Your Mind May 5 #23
NotHardly May 5 #20
Wednesdays May 5 #24
Marthe48 May 5 #31
Lonestarblue May 5 #5
modrepub May 5 #21
LudwigPastorius May 5 #30
dalton99a May 5 #35
multigraincracker May 5 #6
LisaL May 5 #8
multigraincracker May 5 #10
LisaL May 5 #14
multigraincracker May 5 #18
muriel_volestrangler May 5 #19
Freethinker65 May 5 #7
muriel_volestrangler May 5 #17
twodogsbarking May 5 #9
mdbl May 5 #11
twodogsbarking May 5 #12
appalachiablue May 5 #29
IronLionZion May 5 #13
Steelrolled May 5 #34
birdographer May 5 #22
Mickju May 5 #25
flibbitygiblets May 5 #26
bullimiami May 5 #27
PortTack May 5 #28
LudwigPastorius May 5 #32
Warpy May 5 #33
peppertree May 5 #37
peppertree May 5 #36
progree May 5 #38
peppertree May 5 #39

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 07:58 AM

1. Here come the vaccine blamers

Just watch

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Response to soothsayer (Reply #1)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:01 AM

2. Um, this data is from 2020...vaccines didn't exist.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #2)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:11 AM

3. I don't think that matters to anti vaxxers.

Reality doesn't appear to be their strong suit.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #3)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:15 AM

15. Exactly this

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #2)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:13 AM

4. Probably wont keep them from blaming. They're not devoted to facts. NT

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #2)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:18 AM

16. There's a time machine in that injected microchip. Obviously. (nt)

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #16)

Wed May 5, 2021, 10:32 AM

23. Lol for real



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Response to soothsayer (Reply #1)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:34 AM

20. 'It Reaches Zero In 2045': Scientist Makes Startling Prediction About Sperm Counts

https://dailycaller.com/2021/02/26/sperm-count-declining-fertility-rate-decline/


The human race could be in danger as sperm counts continue to fall, an epidemiologist said, according to Axios.

Mt. Sinai Medical School epidemiologist Shanna Swan co-authored an analysis back in 2017 that found total sperm count in the Western world had decreased by 59% between 1973 and 2011.

Swan has now authored a new book called “Count Down: How Our Modern World Is Threatening Sperm Counts, Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development, And Imperiling the Future of the Human Race,” which draws on earlier conclusions of her sperm count study.

“If you look at the curve on sperm count and project it forward–which is always risky–it reaches zero in 2045,” Swan said, noting that the average man would have no viable sperm, according to Axios. “That’s a little concerning, to say the least.”

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Response to NotHardly (Reply #20)

Wed May 5, 2021, 10:41 AM

24. The hypothesis for The Handmaid's Tale. nt

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Response to NotHardly (Reply #20)

Wed May 5, 2021, 12:47 PM

31. Any studies on ova?

n/t

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:13 AM

5. All those anti-immigrant Republicans haven't made the connection between immigrants

and their future Social Security checks. Without enough younger workers to fund the system for retirees, benefits will have to be cut. Perhaps that is actually the Republican plan. They have longed to get rid of SS and all safety net programs for decades but have been unable to do so because of their popularity. If they can prevent immigration, though, the system will eventually die without their fingerprints on its demise. Machiavellian, but not beyond their thinking.

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Response to Lonestarblue (Reply #5)

Wed May 5, 2021, 10:01 AM

21. BINGO!

They'll never figure it out. Best story I've heard along this line was a landscaper my brother used. Landscaper was a big Trumper. After the 2016 election my bother told me this guy started missing his normal deadlines for mulching my brother's place. When my brother talked with him the guy told him he was having trouble finding workers for his business. The guy never made the connection that his workers were all migrants (or undocumented workers) who had basically stopped coming into the country when Trump was elected.

In a larger economic sense, this is bad news because our consumer based economy is predicated on constant growth. Going to be harder to maintain that growth when the general population is either stagnant or shrinking. Could make up for it by increased individual spending but that would mean wealth distribution would have to be more consistent across the income spectrum (and fat chance of that happening under Republicans).

As one of my professors said a long time ago. The birth rate is directly proportional to the societal freedom women are granted or assert. The more equality between the sexes, the lower the birth rate. Basically, if women are given the choice they tend to want smaller families or opt out of having children altogether; not including couples who can not conceive. I'd also point out that the marriage rate has fallen over the last few decades. I wouldn't exclude this factor in the declining birth rates either.

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Response to Lonestarblue (Reply #5)

Wed May 5, 2021, 12:37 PM

30. Not to worry, Trump and the GOP did their best to solve the Social Security crisis by...


slow-walking the response to the pandemic, killing 470,000+ Americans over the age of 64.

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Response to Lonestarblue (Reply #5)

Wed May 5, 2021, 01:33 PM

35. +1. Or immigrants and the housing boom

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:26 AM

6. Seems like lots of babies for those 14 and under,

along with those 45 and older. Not so much in the middle.

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Response to multigraincracker (Reply #6)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:40 AM

8. I don't know how you got that from the article.

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #8)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:06 AM

10. It is what is not in the article I was looking at. N/T

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Response to multigraincracker (Reply #10)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:12 AM

14. So you assumed based on no information?

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #14)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:22 AM

18. There is some evidence of this.

from insider.com


For women over 40, though, birth rates were up about 2%, maintaining a theme also seen since 1935.

"More couples are delaying starting their families due to career and other personal reasons," Dr. Eric Forman, medical and lab director at Columbia University Fertility Center, told Insider, adding that the good news is that options to have children later in life "are better than ever."

"There are excellent options to preserve fertility if the time is not right to have a child, for example, with egg freezing," he said.



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Response to multigraincracker (Reply #18)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:28 AM

19. That, however, is an article from May 2020 reporting the 2019 figures

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-birth-rates-hit-record-low-2019-cdc-report-2020-5

In the Axios article just published, the rate for 40-44 dropped 1.7%, and the rate for 45-54 was steady.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 08:29 AM

7. Decline by choice? Deciding to have smaller families?

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Response to Freethinker65 (Reply #7)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:22 AM

17. Putting off having a baby until employment is secure, perhaps (or not)

With a lot of jobs uncertain, or gone, last year, many couples would have said "let's wait another year until one or both of us has a steady job with full income".

Though, thinking about it, that shouldn't have affected the 2020 birth numbers that much, what with a 9 month lag. It may keep it down in 2021, though.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:01 AM

9. Bars were closed.

Duh.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:08 AM

11. everything we eat, drink and breathe is so adulterated

I'm surprised we aren't all sterile already.

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Response to mdbl (Reply #11)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:11 AM

12. On the mark comment.

Keep thinking. Not everyone can do it successfully.

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Response to mdbl (Reply #11)

Wed May 5, 2021, 12:12 PM

29. +1

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 09:12 AM

13. We might have a baby boom after COVID

as people come out of quarantine wanting to live life to the fullest.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #13)

Wed May 5, 2021, 01:17 PM

34. I wouldn't be surprised.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 10:11 AM

22. Personally, I can't imagine

choosing to bring a baby into this world. Poor kid. But I also understand why people continue to have babies. I just couldn't do it.

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Response to birdographer (Reply #22)

Wed May 5, 2021, 11:18 AM

25. I feel the same way.

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Response to birdographer (Reply #22)

Wed May 5, 2021, 11:27 AM

26. +1

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 11:46 AM

27. good. we need massively lower population if we expect to survive much longer.

this is probably nature self-correcting.
we pollute our environment, we become weaker as a species, our reproduction rates decline.

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Response to bullimiami (Reply #27)

Wed May 5, 2021, 12:03 PM

28. Absolutely! Most if not all earth's problems will resolve without stupid humans screwing things up

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 12:51 PM

32. More concerning to me is...


The total fertility rates in red states are generally higher than blue states.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/fertility_rate/fertility_rates.htm


As it turns out, Idiocracy was a documentary.


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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 01:11 PM

33. WaPo said as low as the 1930s

and I believe it. People who aren't sure they're going to be able to feed themselves or have a place to live are not going to be having children. College enrollment is also down, people looking at a massive debt load with no guarantee to the kin of job they'd need to pay it off and saying "no thanks."

Reagan's Great Rip Off is in its end stage, the plutocracy poised to become aristocracy and pushing for a dictator of their choosing.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #33)

Wed May 5, 2021, 02:56 PM

37. 20% lower, actually.

The depression-era fertility rate lows, reached 2.07 children (over a lifetime) in 1936.

Last year's figure came out to 1.66.

Still higher than in most of the other developed countries though.

Take these 2019 comparisons (the latest available for most countries; 2020 figures are lower):

France......1.83
Australia...1.82
U.K..........1.67
Germany...1.64
Canada.....1.53
Russia......1.53
Japan.......1.28
Spain.......1.27
Italy.........1.25
S. Korea...0.93

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 5, 2021, 01:44 PM

36. No. The fertility rate is the lowest ON RECORD.

The 1976 record low had already been broken by the 2018 rate.

What was record, was the percentage decline in birth rates year-on-year.

These are fertility rates from 1960 to 2019, then take 4% off the 2019 figure:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA

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Response to peppertree (Reply #36)

Wed May 5, 2021, 03:05 PM

38. Thanks for the info, and in your #37 above too 😂 n/t

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Response to progree (Reply #38)

Wed May 5, 2021, 04:06 PM

39. You're welcome

Why these news outlets can't bother to have someone do that (which took me a few minutes to look up and calculate), is beyond me.

Then again, anything that isn't fascist news is, as you know, chronically underfunded - such that one can't blame them for cutting corners here and there.

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