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Roland99

(53,342 posts)
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 03:41 PM Aug 2021

A crucial ocean circulation is showing signs of instability. Its shutdown would have serious impacts

Source: CNN

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) -- which the Gulf Stream is a major part of -- helps maintain the energy balance in the Atlantic Ocean. It is often described as a "conveyor belt" that takes warm surface water from the tropics and distributes it to the north Atlantic. The colder, saltier water then sinks and flows south.

A study, published Thursday in Nature and Climate Change, warned of "an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last century. Researchers say it could be close to a collapse from a strong circulation to a weak circulation, though the threshold for such a collapse is still uncertain.

...

Boers added that he himself was surprised by his findings that the AMOC had been destabilized and was "moving toward its critical threshold, at which it could abruptly collapse."

A collapse of the circulation would mean significant cooling in Europe, Beors said, "but maybe more concerning is the effect of an AMOC collapse on the tropical monsoon systems of South America, Western Africa, and India; especially in Western Africa, an AMOC collapse could lead to permanent drought conditions."

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/world/climate-gulf-stream-collapse-warning-study-intl/index.html

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A crucial ocean circulation is showing signs of instability. Its shutdown would have serious impacts (Original Post) Roland99 Aug 2021 OP
The end of the monsoons in Africa would mean permanent drought here. PortTack Aug 2021 #1
It would even affect INDIA? Wow. That's a LONG way away ... Hugh_Lebowski Aug 2021 #2
Al Gore warned about this in 2004 Miguelito Loveless Aug 2021 #3
Ahem ruet Aug 2021 #6
If we were to get a new ice age it would be short lived NullTuples Aug 2021 #12
We can still limit the temp increase. Elessar Zappa Aug 2021 #8
Some models now pointing to 5C Miguelito Loveless Aug 2021 #16
Exactly... IthinkThereforeIAM Aug 2021 #11
Agreed DENVERPOPS Aug 2021 #17
I can hear reQublicans already claiming climate scientists are alarmists KS Toronado Aug 2021 #4
and 87 universities still support 260 + xlimbaugh stations that still deny global warming certainot Aug 2021 #5
Yes, the universities are complicit - lies about climate change Champp Aug 2021 #10
Mad Max movie becomes a reality.... ashredux Aug 2021 #7
While the AMOC may be slowing other data suggest that ocean currents may be strengthening elsewhere Red Pest Aug 2021 #9
If I'm not mistaken, ocean flows are a relatively closed system NullTuples Aug 2021 #13
I hope "The Day After Tomorrow" wasn't predicting something... catbyte Aug 2021 #14
You mean this scene? csziggy Aug 2021 #20
I watched a report on public TV about forty years ago. twodogsbarking Aug 2021 #15
i have been waiting for this. we already fucked up the jet stream. pansypoo53219 Aug 2021 #18
So Al Gore pressbox69 Aug 2021 #19
I Remember reading, and seeing video about This in ? ... electric_blue68 Aug 2021 #21
K&R JudyM Aug 2021 #22
This message was self-deleted by its author JudyM Aug 2021 #23

PortTack

(32,606 posts)
1. The end of the monsoons in Africa would mean permanent drought here.
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 03:44 PM
Aug 2021

Many of our weather systems start there

Miguelito Loveless

(4,438 posts)
3. Al Gore warned about this in 2004
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:12 PM
Aug 2021

And it has solidified into a certainty while most everybody pretended it wasn't a thing, or just ignored it.

Scientists are conservative people (I mean that in the original dictionary sense, not the modern political sense as a synonym for "fascist&quot and the numbers published have always skewed low and optimistic. As attacks on scientists increased, scientists became even more reluctant to report the actual dire numbers, so they kept reporting that the situation was "fixable" if we just [fill in the blank].

The truth is, we have already crossed tipping points and there is nothing but disaster and sorrow for humanity in our future. Science cannot save us, especially as so many people no longer believe in it.

Worry not about the planet, the planet is fine. It is just getting ready to shrug us off like a bad cold.

ruet

(10,035 posts)
6. Ahem
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:18 PM
Aug 2021


cientists warm up to ‘Day After Tomorrow’

Raising global warming awarenessNonetheless, scientists are embracing the movie, unusual for those whose stock in trade is fact.

“My first reaction was, ‘Oh my God, this is a disaster because it is such a distortion of the science. It will certainly create a backlash,”’ said Dan Schrag, a Harvard University paleoclimatologist. “I have sobered up somewhat, because the public is probably smart enough to distinguish between Hollywood and the real world.”

He now hopes the movie will do for interest in global warming what “Jurassic Park” did for dinosaurs.

In the new movie, due for release Memorial Day weekend, global warming melts the polar caps, sending torrents of fresh water into the world’s salty oceans. That flood in turn chills a major current in the north Atlantic and tips the planet into a new Ice Age.

Quickly unleashed is every type of violent weather that filmmakers could cram into the movie, directed by Roland Emmerich of “Independence Day” fame. Most were invoked as an excuse to use cutting-edge special effects, Nachmanoff said.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography marine physicist Tim Barnett, who’s seen an extended trailer of the film, said even slower-moving change can wreak massive havoc.

NullTuples

(6,017 posts)
12. If we were to get a new ice age it would be short lived
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 05:38 PM
Aug 2021

We've shifted our energy balance from being roughly neutral to keeping more than we lose, like a greenhouse.

A cold snap would not be unexpected though, as we are now in the chaos that is observed when a balanced system becomes unbalanced and cycles fluctuate and affect each other wildly, sometimes cancelling each other out, sometimes reinforcing each other, until they swing back again. Meanwhile elsewhere the opposite or same may be happening - they've lost their connection to each other, their usual ability to moderate each other.

Elessar Zappa

(13,649 posts)
8. We can still limit the temp increase.
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:30 PM
Aug 2021

We won’t prevent it from going up 1.5 C but we can certainly keep it under 4C, which is a worst case scenario.

IthinkThereforeIAM

(3,072 posts)
11. Exactly...
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 05:04 PM
Aug 2021

... I remember reading of the weakening of the Gulf Stream and it's affect on the weather in Europe, so it seems 20 years. And yes, not many thought it of any import.

DENVERPOPS

(8,679 posts)
17. Agreed
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 07:15 PM
Aug 2021

And many many others have come to the same conclusion.....

Mother nature has finally had enough of the human race destroying her planet earth.....................

KS Toronado

(16,908 posts)
4. I can hear reQublicans already claiming climate scientists are alarmists
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:12 PM
Aug 2021

and they're just "out to get" big oil.

 

certainot

(9,090 posts)
5. and 87 universities still support 260 + xlimbaugh stations that still deny global warming
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:18 PM
Aug 2021

and continue to be used by republicans and putin to delay efforts to fight climate change

87 universities

Champp

(2,114 posts)
10. Yes, the universities are complicit - lies about climate change
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:33 PM
Aug 2021

They need to stop that allowing lying shit, and stop it damn fast.

Red Pest

(288 posts)
9. While the AMOC may be slowing other data suggest that ocean currents may be strengthening elsewhere
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 04:32 PM
Aug 2021

Here is a link from Science Magazine that explains where ocean currents may be strengthening.

Global warming is speeding up Earth’s massive ocean currents [link:https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/global-warming-speeding-earth-s-massive-ocean-currents|

The oceans’ great continent-wrapping currents, each one moving as much water as all the world’s rivers combined, can rightly be considered the planet’s circulatory system. And this circulation, it appears, has started to thump faster: For nearly 25 years the currents have been rapidly speeding up, partly because of global warming.

NullTuples

(6,017 posts)
13. If I'm not mistaken, ocean flows are a relatively closed system
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 05:41 PM
Aug 2021

So the loss of the AMOC would have to be compensated elsewhere. Problem is, those other currents didn't move the same energy from one place to another in the same way. And because we've shifted the global energy balance by keeping in more than we lose, those soon to be stronger currents may become the stable ones.

catbyte

(34,170 posts)
14. I hope "The Day After Tomorrow" wasn't predicting something...
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 06:14 PM
Aug 2021

I know it's Hollywood fiction, but that will have really nasty consequences. Scary.

twodogsbarking

(9,302 posts)
15. I watched a report on public TV about forty years ago.
Fri Aug 6, 2021, 06:38 PM
Aug 2021

This guy was alarmed at the change of pressure at the ocean surface.
He didn't say why he thought it was occurring but he did think it would
indicate that storms and weather in general would be much more
severe but not that there would be more hurricanes. I don't think he
even mentioned climate change but he was spot on.

pressbox69

(2,252 posts)
19. So Al Gore
Sat Aug 7, 2021, 04:27 AM
Aug 2021

is laughed at and mocked by the right for warning us about the dangers we now face. Meanwhile pill popping, draft dodging, cigar smoking Rush Limbaugh gets a medal from fellow draft dodger Trump. This world is and has been ass backward for years, just like Trump's pants.





electric_blue68

(14,599 posts)
21. I Remember reading, and seeing video about This in ? ...
Sat Aug 7, 2021, 01:09 PM
Aug 2021

late '90s, earlyish '00s ??!!??

As soon as I saw which ever version of short headline these last ?2 days....
I was almost sure it was going to be that !!!

😔😱😔😔😔😔😵😔

Response to Roland99 (Original post)

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