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janterry

(4,429 posts)
Mon Oct 18, 2021, 09:19 AM Oct 2021

So Was Sweden a Covid Success or Failure?

Sweden does have about twice the population of each of its three immediate neighbors, and 28 times that of Iceland. It also has a lot more foreign-born residents relative to its population than Denmark and Finland, and somewhat more than Norway and Iceland, which could factor into the effectiveness of public-health efforts. Iceland, the standout here in a positive sense, has the advantage of being an island.

So I tried a different screen, comparing Sweden with the other nations around the world with populations between 6 million and 90 million and very high incomes (my cutoff was a 2021 purchasing-power-adjusted per-capita gross domestic product of $50,000, as estimated by the International Monetary Fund).

Sweden’s relative performance is actually better than the chart indicates, given that it has been more aggressive than most countries in attributing deaths to Covid-19. By the estimates of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Sweden’s reported Covid deaths account for about 90% of excess deaths (that is, deaths above normal levels) during the pandemic. For France that’s 78%, for Germany 68% and for the Netherlands only 58%. (Denmark, Finland and Norway all have lower reported-to-excess-deaths percentages than Sweden too, but not nearly enough lower to come close to bridging the mortality-rate gap.)

So Sweden has had middling success in battling Covid-19.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-14/sweden-a-covid-success-story-or-a-failure-maybe-neither

Interesting. Though I'm sure we won't know anything for years afterwards. We'll have to assess this in the rear view mirror (whenever we get there)

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So Was Sweden a Covid Success or Failure? (Original Post) janterry Oct 2021 OP
We will succeed together or we will fail one by one. marble falls Oct 2021 #1
Which still leaves the question, Igel Oct 2021 #2
Like I indicated in my post: it's not over and it's too soon to know how or when we declare ... marble falls Oct 2021 #3
That's the thing I like about Sweden janterry Oct 2021 #4

Igel

(35,191 posts)
2. Which still leaves the question,
Mon Oct 18, 2021, 05:37 PM
Oct 2021

Was Sweden a COVID-success or a COVID-failure?

It doesn't pay to evaluate the final conclusion half-way through. Too many moving parts, too many things change along the way. Pointing to an example as to the One Right Way to do something might result in that One Right Way two months later having a huge spike that shows that the One Right Way is worse than the Ultimate Bad Way.

Still too early to tell if Sweden was a success or failure. An Omega variant might come along in January '22 that kicks us in all sort of sensitive areas. I think the 500 cloth masks I have stored in my classroom are probably a waste of cloth and space and look forward to composting them; at the same time, I'm not composting them just yet.

marble falls

(56,358 posts)
3. Like I indicated in my post: it's not over and it's too soon to know how or when we declare ...
Mon Oct 18, 2021, 08:51 PM
Oct 2021

... winners or losers.

 

janterry

(4,429 posts)
4. That's the thing I like about Sweden
Tue Oct 19, 2021, 05:59 AM
Oct 2021

They continue to treat this only as science. They say what they got wrong (early on they got a lot wrong about the elderly). They report all of the data as accurately as they can (even when it doesn't make them look good). As far as I can tell, there is no spin - just a determined discussion of the science.

That doesn't mean they got it right or wrong or somewhere in the middle. I absolutely think this article is too soon (way too soon). But it's clear OUR press - in reporting on Sweden - was (and perhaps still is) poor. Frankly, I think most of our press has spun into opinion, these days.

That I totally lament.

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