Economy
Related: About this forumSharpest increase since 1973: U.S. food prices see historic jump and are likely to stay high
As if trips to the grocery store werent nerve-wracking enough, U.S. shoppers lately have seen the costs of meat, eggs and even potatoes soar as the coronavirus has disrupted processing plants and distribution networks.
Overall, the cost of food bought to eat at home skyrocketed by the most in 46 years, and analysts caution that meat prices in particular could remain high as slaughterhouses struggle to maintain production levels while implementing procedures intended to keep workers healthy.
The Labor Department reports that the 2.6% jump in April food prices was the largest monthly increase in 46 years.
Prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased the most, rising 4.3%. Although the 2.9% jump in cereals and bakery products wasn't as steep, it was still the largest increase the agency has recorded.
At: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/us-food-prices-historic-jump-stay-high-70969164
Young shopper stocks up on cereal in a Connecticut supermarket in 1973.
April food prices saw the steepest monthly hike since currency and commodity price deregulation under Nixon led to a 6% jump in August of that year.
msongs
(67,193 posts)sandensea
(21,526 posts)procon
(15,805 posts)are the menu items to buy. We'll have to learn to eat like most of the other people in the world who seem quite satisfied with those types of food.
I'm already about 75% vegetarian without any effort or intention on my part. Meats are tasty and I do admit to a bacon madness, so enjoy a small portion now and then, but meats sure mess with my digestion for several days so I just use very little.
Dairy is going to be a challenge.
sandensea
(21,526 posts)The minute beef makes its way back into your grocery cart - the total really starts to go up.
Plus, I found it just doesn't agree with me. Besides the fact that cows are sweet, and I don't approve of their treatment.
progree
(10,864 posts)Trump was promising a GDP growth rate of 4% or more. Instead we got a 4.1% food price increase for the past 12 months so far, but that will increase as May 2020 gets added in and May 2019 drops off the rolling 12 month period, and so on.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Oh, and a negative GDP growth rate.
sandensea
(21,526 posts)Because GDP didn't grow all that much during the 3 "good" Trump years, it's now estimated that 2nd Qtr. GDP will be back down to its 2014 level.
That's what his trillion-dollar deficits got us: one stiff wind, and the economy folded like a house of cards.
progree
(10,864 posts)sandensea
(21,526 posts)So much so in fact, that I suspect the estimate was put out there to create a "pleasant surprise" once the actual number comes out in late July.
Consider this: a collapse to Q1-2011 levels (which, in constant 2012 dollars, was $15.713 trillion) would mean a 17.2% fall from Q1-2020 levels ($18.975 trillion).
But because quarterly growth rates are published on an annualized (x^4) basis, it would mean a headline number showing a whopping 53% collapse.
I think something closer to a 12% quarterly fall - i.e. a 40% fall, in the headline number - is more likely.
But, of course, I could be wrong - I hope not! As 40% is bad enough.
progree
(10,864 posts)at the end of the quarter, but more like a snapshot based on economic reports released so far. When they say it doesn't include the impact of Covid19, I presume that means they aren't assuming the continued opening up of the economy either.
So yes, I don't expect GDP to end up down 52.8% (annualized) in Q2.
Hmm, the 15 economists that MarketWatch polls expect (median forecast) a drop of 27.7% in Q2 (annual rate)
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
(scroll down to near the bottom)
sandensea
(21,526 posts)That would be a 7.8% quarterly fall.
It would be the worst since 1946 (amid World War II demobilization) - but definitely something we could recover from.
Cheeto and his institutional abuses? That'll take longer.