Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumControlled implosion of fossil industries and explosive renewables development can deliver on Paris
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/controlled-implosion-of-fossil-industries-and-explosive-renewables-development-can-deliver-on-paris[font size=4]06/23/2016 - While some criticize the Paris climate target as impracticable, a team of scholars argues that it is on the contrary a triumph of realism. First, and most importantly, adhering to the Paris target of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius is necessary in view of the massive risks that unchecked climate change would pose to society. A crucial type of threats, associated with the crossing of tipping points in the Earth system, is summarized in a landmark map for the first time. Second, implementing the Paris target is feasible through the controlled implosion of the fossil industry, instigated by a technological explosion related to renewable energy systems and other innovations. Third, the target is simple enough to create worldwide political momentum, the scientists say in their comment published in Nature Climate Change.[/font]
[font size=3]The Paris target of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, aspiring to keep the warming even at 1.5 degrees, offers the chance to avoid some of the greatest climate risks the tipping of critical Earth system elements, says co-author Ricarda Winkelmann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The ice sheets or the Amazon rainforest, for instance, are projected to succumb to disruptive and likely irreversible change once a certain warming threshold range is crossed. These are not isolated processes; they affect the whole planet.
[font size=4]Necessity: tipping elements and global temperature[/font]
Based on the advances made by climate research as a whole over the past two decades, the scientists provide a defining diagram of tipping elements in the context of the global temperature evolution. We illustrate that for the Earth system, half a degree really matters, Winkelmann says. Warming of only 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels will have major consequences, such as threatening the survival of coral reefs worldwide. But the difference to 2 degrees is substantial. In a 1.5-degree warmer world, for example, global sea-level rise could be limited to 1.5 meters by the year 2300, whereas at 2 degrees, 2-3 meters rise by 2300 have been projected, and the Greenland ice sheet may well pass its tipping point.
Beyond 2 degrees, the course might be set for a long-term complete deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere, says Winkelmann. This would result in sea-level rise that threatens the survival of many major coastal cities including New York, Mumbai and Tokyo. Hence the necessity of the Paris target.
[/font][/font]
mackdaddy
(1,520 posts)It is like the 350.org group. It was a really good goal, but that ship has sailed.
We are already at 1.54c now. The arctic is at well over 2C plus Now. There is 20meters of sea level rise locked up on Greenland, and over 200 meters of Seal level rise in the Antarctic. Do they really thing that there will only be 1% melt of these ice sheets in 180 years at 2c?
I am sure they recommend using a condom before the second trimester too....
I am all for doing everything we can, but ignoring the current severity is not helping.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,933 posts)Its not like they said, We need to prevent CO₂ levels from exceeding 350 ppm. Instead, the target is to return to 350 ppm.
Its not a fanciful number, its not even low enough. We actually need to get levels below 350 ppm.