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mahatmakanejeeves

(56,885 posts)
Fri Mar 19, 2021, 03:00 PM Mar 2021

Solar and wind generation occupations: a look at the next decade

February 2021 | Vol. 10 / No. 4

EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT

Solar and wind generation occupations: a look at the next decade

By William Lawhorn

Download PDF Version

Ben Franklin’s lightning experiments led to Thomas Edison’s light bulb, which led to the use of motors and machines that powered the world in the 20th Century. Now electricity is the driving force behind modern society, powering everything from the lights in our homes and offices, to our cell phones, and many of the tools we use for everyday tasks like cooking and cleaning. There are several ways to generate this power. For over a century fossil fuels have been the main source of power generation, although important sources, hydroelectric and nuclear facilities have never truly competed with coal and natural gas for total generation capacity. However, advancements in technology have allowed for the rapid expansion of solar and wind generation capacity.

This expansion requires the need for workers who install photovoltaic (PV) panels and install and maintain wind turbines. PV installers assemble, set up, and maintain rooftop and other systems that convert sunlight into energy. Wind turbine technicians (windtechs) install, maintain, and repair wind turbines. Both occupations are projected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations from 2019 to 2029. These occupations will continue to be needed to meet the expected increased demand for renewable electricity generation.

This Beyond the Numbers article discusses the factors that are expected to contribute to the growing demand for solar and wind energy generation over the next 10 years, and the resulting opportunities for jobseekers interested in employment as PV installers and windtechs.

Occupational growth over the next decade

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Solar and wind generation occupations: a look at the next decade (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 OP
Be cautious of "big bucket 'o jobs" fallacy jmbar2 Mar 2021 #1
I'll reply to one of your points Finishline42 Mar 2021 #4
Good points jmbar2 Mar 2021 #6
This fantasy will generate lots of work for toxicologists, analytical... NNadir Mar 2021 #2
It puzzles me mac2766 Mar 2021 #3
It's a critique of bad labor market analysis, not renewable energy jmbar2 Mar 2021 #5
As I stated earlier.... mac2766 Mar 2021 #7

jmbar2

(4,828 posts)
1. Be cautious of "big bucket 'o jobs" fallacy
Fri Mar 19, 2021, 03:11 PM
Mar 2021

I used to do this kind of analysis...

Occupational growth figures can be misleading.

- Statistically, a small increase of a small number can appear to be a huge percentage increase.

- Jobs increase during the buildout phase of a new technology, then drop off. Once the windmills are up, the number of technicians needed are very few. They monitor from a computer screen.

- New occupations are often filled by neighboring occupations already in existence - i.e. roofers, monitoring technicians, electricians.

- Manufacturing of parts will likely occur overseas.

In the past, reports like these were used to start up training programs, community college programs, and private for-profit schools. They would train too many people. Trainees would rack up debt for the training, then be unable to get jobs, or the jobs would be too low-paid.

And that's the "big bucket 'o jobs" fallacy. Has occurred in technology, biotechnology, and many other occupations.

Finishline42

(1,091 posts)
4. I'll reply to one of your points
Sun Mar 21, 2021, 09:18 AM
Mar 2021
- Manufacturing of parts will likely occur overseas.

But a lot of manufacturing is already happening in the US for Windmills. Reasons why is size and weight of those parts.

Companies will do a cost analysis and evaluate bids (even between different plants in their own corporate structure) and for large parts the cost to transport them to the work site can be considerable. A plant in Iowa will win a lot of contracts over one in China.

The main issue though is the lack of consistent support by the govt, as we just witnessed 4 years of the Federal govt opposed to renewables.

My guess is that 4 more years of support will bring down the cost to a point that it won't matter if another anti-renewable admin were to win the Presidency.

jmbar2

(4,828 posts)
6. Good points
Sun Mar 21, 2021, 02:21 PM
Mar 2021

Some manufacturing has to stay here, like you said, especially windmills. I've seen them being transported on trains. They are HUGE!

My critique is on any hype that might induce people to run out and invest in poorly designed training for new and emerging occupations. It's a racket. See my post below and links to discussion of the "IT shortage" in past years.

My background was doing research on new and emerging occupations, and their labor market projections for colleges. Anytime a new field emerges, it becomes a gold rush for community colleges to start writing grants for federal money to create training to fill the projected "labor market shortage".

They overtrain too many people for the jobs, and the students become bagholders. It is a vicious cycle. It always starts with a claim of a projected shortage of XYZ workers. It's a racket.

Yes there will be new jobs. But most of them will be few in number, temporary during the build out phase, and filled from companies doing related work.

NNadir

(33,368 posts)
2. This fantasy will generate lots of work for toxicologists, analytical...
Fri Mar 19, 2021, 03:57 PM
Mar 2021

...chemists working on electronic waste soperfund contamination sites, transport to third world countries where the health of "recycling" workers will not matter, etc.

What these jobs will not do is to address climate change.

Jobs that are unproductive do not generate wealth. On the contrary, they generate poverty.

 

mac2766

(658 posts)
3. It puzzles me
Sat Mar 20, 2021, 12:14 PM
Mar 2021

How many times I've read an OP relating to renewable energy or electric vehicles that have such negative replies to them.

It puzzles me how some folks continue to take the easy pathway of negativity. What we need moving forward are solutions, not lazy reasoning not to try to improve our environmental situation.

jmbar2

(4,828 posts)
5. It's a critique of bad labor market analysis, not renewable energy
Sun Mar 21, 2021, 02:05 PM
Mar 2021

The reason so many people are drowning in student debt can be partially attributed to bad career advice, such as this.

We want renewables, and they are indeed the key to survival of the earth. What we don't want is huge buckets of people to rush out into poorly designed training programs that will put them in debt, based on bad job projections.

The XYZ worker shortage is a trope that resuscitates every few years for new occupations. It's BS.
Here is the version from IT a few years ago.

https://www.quora.com/Is-the-technology-job-shortage-in-the-US-a-myth

It happens with every new and emerging occupation. But there is usually a time lag between the hype cycles, so people forget what happened last time.

Caveat emptor on career/training investment hype.

Long live renewables.




 

mac2766

(658 posts)
7. As I stated earlier....
Sun Mar 21, 2021, 08:02 PM
Mar 2021

Negativity does not promote progress. Solutions are what we need. If what you are seeing is something that is not a solution to a problem, don't continue the narrative of the problem, but promote a solution to the problem.

If you believe that students are being led toward a trade that won't last, don't just complain about that problem. Come to us with a solution to the problem.

In my 30's I re-trained in the IT field. I worked in that field for nearly 20 years. I made quite a bit of money. My life is so much better today because I did that. When I saw that the IT industry was moving toward out-sourcing, I knew that I had a decision to make. I could stay in that industry, or move to something else. I again re-trained. I'm now an electrician working toward gaining a license that will allow me to install solar systems on residential structures. Beyond that, I'll gain a master electrician license that will allow me to do so much more.

See... positive. Solutions. Not hate and negativity.

Not to mention... I will be employing others in the field. I will be training others who will benefit from my experience. My positive position will allow others to gain experience that will lead them toward a beneficial future.

Negativity sucks the life out of so much. Solutions are what we need. It's very easy to be negative. It's so much more difficult to be positive and come up with solutions. Hate is easy.

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