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hatrack

(59,442 posts)
Thu Oct 7, 2021, 09:40 AM Oct 2021

US Hydro Projected For 4th-Lowest Output In 20 Yrs For 2021; Geography May Blunt Poss. Megadrought

EDIT

While the decrease in hydropower this year may be alarming, it is within the bounds of what’s happened in the recent past. If the EIA forecast pans out, the 13.9 percent decrease in hydro generation this year would be less than the 14.4 percent decrease in 2007, and close to the 13.5 percent decrease in 2012.



The EIA’s forecast, part of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, projects that hydro will generate 250,680 gigawatts of electricity in 2021, the fourth-lowest level since 2001. The forecast also includes 2022, and predicts that there will be a small rebound to 267,230 gigawatts next year, the eighth lowest level since 2001. Those numbers are low, but not catastrophically low. But there is a larger question to ask: Could the drop in hydro generation in 2021 be a sign that this power source is declining and becoming less reliable? The urgency is amplified by the fact that, according to some scientists, the West is in a “megadrought” that could last decades.

To answer the question, I went to some of the experts at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington. “Precipitation in the West can vary significantly from year to year, and sometimes the dry years occur in sequence, resulting in continual reservoir drawdown and eventually reduced generation at hydropower plants relying on stored water,” said Sean Turner, a water resources modeler at the lab. “So, the natural climate of the region creates good years and bad years for hydropower generation.”

We are clearly in a bad year. But he can’t say with certainty whether the bad years are likely to become more common because of climate change.

EDIT

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07102021/inside-clean-energy-drought-hydroelectric-power/

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