Exposure of U.S. population to extreme heat could quadruple by mid-century
Last edited Tue May 19, 2015, 09:36 AM - Edit history (1)
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/15524/exposure-us-population-extreme-heat-could-quadruple-mid-century[font face=Serif][font size=5]Exposure of U.S. population to extreme heat could quadruple by mid-century[/font]
May 18, 2015
[font size=3]BOULDER U.S. residents' exposure to extreme heat could increase four- to six-fold by mid-century, due to both a warming climate and a population that's growing especially fast in the hottest regions of the country, according to new research.
The study, by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the City University of New York (CUNY), highlights the importance of considering societal changes when trying to determine future climate impacts.
"Both population change and climate change matter," said NCAR scientist Brian O'Neill, one of the studys co-authors. "If you want to know how heat waves will affect health in the future, you have to consider both."
Extreme heat kills more people in the United States than any other weather-related event, and scientists generally expect the number of deadly heat waves to increase as the climate warms. The new study, published May 18 in the journal
Nature Climate Change, finds that the overall exposure of Americans to these future heat waves would be vastly underestimated if the role of population changes were ignored.
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This graphic illustrates the expected increase in average annual person-days of exposure to extreme heat for each U.S. Census Division when comparing the period 19712000 to the period 20412070. Person-days are calculated by multiplying the number of days when the temperature is expected to hit at least 95 degrees by the number of people who are projected to live in the areas where extreme heat is occurring. The scale is in billions. (©UCAR. This image is freely available for
media & nonprofit use.)
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