5-2: Mayweather vs Pacquiao

[H2O Man]

Two weeks ago, the internet boxing site “BoxRec” listed a fight between Floyd Mayweather, Jr., and Manny Pacquiao as being scheduled for May 2, 2015. Recently, that information was removed from the site. However, it appears that both camps have agreed to terms on the issues that have prevented the fight from happening in the past.

This week, Pacquiao has been quoted as saying that he will be able to announce the fight’s date by the end of this month. My understanding is that, at this point, the only unresolved issue has to do with the Pay-Per-View coverage, and how much each fighter will get from PPV sales. Floyd is contracted with Showtime, and Manny with HBO. This is similar to when Mike Tyson challenged Lennox Lewis years ago; Showtime and HBO were able to co-promote the fight for PPV.

Mayweather’s PPV sales are significantly higher than Pacquiao’s, and so he will definitely earn more. Pacquiao reportedly has tax “issues” in both the United States and the Philippines, which is why two of his last three bouts have been held in China. Hopefully, his cut from the PPV sales will be enough to pay off any taxes he owes -- it’s always sad to see an aging champion in debt, due to poor advice from his advisors.

Mayweather will also be guaranteed a much larger purse, because he is both undefeated, and will be the defending champion. In Manny’s two 2012 bouts, he was decisioned by Timothy Bradley in a close fight, and flattened by Juan Manuel Marquez. While he avenged the loss to Bradley, his other two bouts were against soft competition.

The May 2nd date has created a problem, as far as the proposed (but not finalized) middleweight title bout between champion Miguel Cotto and challenger Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. This bout would be the biggest PPV event of 2015, if not for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao. It is interesting to note that Floyd typically fights on the Cinco de Mayo holiday. Canelo had hoped to cash in on the Mexican holiday, and if Floyd were fighting anyone else, it is likely that HBO would have been willing to compete with Showtime for PPV sales. (See below link)

http://www.boxingnews24.com/2015/01/cotto-canelo-will-need-to-move-off-may-2nd-date-for-mayweather-vs-pacquiao/

The Mayweather vs. Pacquiao bout should set the record for PPV sales, and become the single largest money-making event in sports’ history. Floyd’s bout with Oscar de la Hoya currently has the most PPV sales; his fight with Canelo made the most money (Floyd made $92 million for that fight).

The fight would have been “bigger” had it happened years ago. This isn’t to say it won’t make a similar amount of money today, but both fighters are obviously older, and on the decline from their physical primes. On the other hand, both might be wiser today in terms of applying their ring skills. Still, there is some controversy regarding why the bout did not happen before. The first roadblock came in February of 2010, regarding “drug testing.” The ESPN clip linked below documents the nature of that disagreement. (The most important information comes when Teddy Atlas speaks, at about 7:30 into the clip.)

Pacquiao had been scoring devastating knockouts during his extraordinary rise in weight classes up until this time. This resulted in his PPV sales skyrocketing, and the demand for a fight with Mayweather. However, it’s interesting to note that since the steroid controversy discussed in the above ESPN clip, Manny has not scored a single knockout. Hence, the PPV numbers have fallen.

In previous discussions, Atlas has said that he believes Mayweather is simply too big and strong for Pacquiao, and would defeat him in the ring. When I interviewed former champion Greg Haugen, he said that both he and friend Roberto Duran believe Floyd would knock Manny out within five rounds (this was before Marquez flattened him).

Styles make fights. I’ve never thought Pacquiao posed as much of a threat to Mayweather as some other contenders with lower rankings. Manny’s footwork -- specifically his ability to land combinations and move to the side quickly -- could be effective for a few rounds. But Manny has set patterns, on both offense and defense, that Floyd would exploit, just as Marquez did.

I think it is more likely that the fight goes to a decision, however, even though a knockout is a very real possibility.

What do you think?

[H2O Man]

1. Update:

http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/12164550/manny-pacquiao-agrees-terms-fight-floyd-mayweather

[fishwax]

2. Nice to see it finally happen, but I don't think Manny can hang with Floyd

In the second fight with Bradley, I think MP got Bradley tired early, and that's why he was able to control the final rounds. He won't be able to do that to Mayweather. Mayweather is too smart to let MP get away without paying for the tendencies and the signs of age that he was able to get away with against a tired Bradley or the inexperienced Algieri. And Floyd is so versatile as a fighter that I don't think MP will be able to take advantage of his own strengths to the degree that he has been able to in his last three fights.

[H2O Man]

5. Teddy said that

Floyd is too big and strong for Manny. I think that people will be surprised to see the difference in physical strength in the ring. Because of his focus on defense, most people do not appreciate how strong Mayweather is -- much as they didn't with Ali.

I agree 100% with the points you make about "mental strength." And I have a great deal of respect for Pacquiao. He definitely ranks. But Floyd is one of the very few fighters in terms of ring intelligence. The man has a unique ability to adjust in the ring. And really, the only physical wear-and-tear he's had affect him is some damage to his hands. That's distinct from the punishment Manny has absorbed over the years, including in fights he's won.

[JonLP24]

3. The "wiser" part would probably be a fascinating match to watch

if I understood strategy, techniques, moves, etc much more than at a basic level.

In any case, I'll pay attention to this even though I likely be able to watch. Do you think it would be available on HBO after its over because in that case I'll be able to see it?

[H2O Man]

4. Yes, it will be.

HBO's parent company is investing heavily in the bout. They plan to (re-) run the bout on May 9th, at 9 pm/est.

Between now and then, I'll post some of the things to look for. Being addicted to the sport, my son and I have already spent hours discussing such things as foot work: where Pac Man wants his front foot to be per Floyd's, etc. While that may sound silly, it actually plays a huge role in determining the outcome -- I'm thinking back to when my brother's guy, Tommy Hearns, was preparing to face Marvin Hagler, my explaining to my brother the potential danger of Marvin's "switching" between south-paw and orthodox, in terms of landing blows to the body versus head. At the lower levels of talent, of course, you spend less time (if any) focusing on what may seem small things. But footwork, hence balance, will determine the outcome of this fight.

[JonLP24]

6. That is one area of boxing I have a little more than limited knowledge in

Always knew balance was the most important thing in preventing from being knocked down. I remember in 2006 I was in the Army--I was never much more 5'8" 150-160 lbs so when there was some pickup boxing going on in the courtyard an acquaintance offered me a free pack of cigarettes if I could last 3 minutes with someone from my unit who wrestled in high school was very close to being if not the largest, most muscular man in our unit. One time he was resisting 3 MPs (not very smart either) at the same time which a woman took him down with a swift move which was a thing of beauty. In my mind it would be the easiest pack of cigarettes but he arrogantly assumed I'd be knocked out early (I never have been knocked out but a I did see starts when a friend experienced in a form of martial arts gave me the hardest punch of I ever experienced in a pillow pad boxing match. -- Also his boxing stance was his martial arts stance which was very, very unusual)

I also knew how to shield and dodge punches too which is why I felt confident.

Basically I shielded & dodged but made sure to keep myself balanced for 3 minutes, I doubt I threw many punches but a couple times I had to turn away when he was punching as repeatedly as possible but kept going and hit my in the back of the head which a couple of spectators (who 2 years later became my best friends I ever had) pointed out that was a violation. So resumed and kept going, he did it again which they said hey, that's a disqualification you lost the fight but he felt that would be unfair for him to lose the fight over something like that but I didn't have any opposition to continuing.

I never want to or feel like fighting but one time when I refused to say what he did wrong he came after me like a freight train and then back-to-back haymakers which I dodged perfectly in my boxing stance which ended the fight as I walked away and he had me by about 50-80, mostly in muscle (I heard he used to be much larger back in the day, his nickname used to be "one punch" -- dead serious too. I never thought about it until now but I see irony in "one punch" threw 2 punches that didn't land).

When it comes to things like counter punching, when to punch and where, how to create openings I'm pretty much clueless.

[H2O Man]

7. I'll look through

some of my old letters from the Hurricane. Your post reminded me of a conversation we had, where he explained in great detail about catching your opponent coming into your range of power. Sounds simple enough, but it isn't so easy. Everyone, for example, has "plains of power" -- meaning that they hit the hardest when they through certain punches. This was one of the keys that Angelo Dundee used to prepare Ali for the "Rumble in the Jungle." When Big George threw punches that landed well below his shoulder-level, he crushed his opponents. Think of the first Frazier fight, where George won the title.

George hit hard with every punch he threw, of course. But his straight shots, at shoulder-level or even slightly higher, were not nearly as powerful. Hence, Ali fought in a straight-up position. And many of the times he attempted non-straight punches, Ali caught him coming into Ali's power. That always results in the opponent getting hurt.

[TSIAS]

8. This fight will never happen

It appears that Floyd Mayweather and his boss Al Haymon once again orchestrated sham negotiations only to pull out at the last minute. Pacquiao seems to have agreed to most terms of the fight, but Mayweather is reticent to sign the final contract. The likely scenario now is that Mayweather will fight a farce of a rematch with the lineal Middleweight Champion, Miguel Cotto.

The backstory is that one of the most anticipated fights for 2015 was a showdown between Mexican star Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and the aforementioned Cotto. Last June, Cotto won the recognized MW championship of the world against a badly faded Sergio Martinez. While Cotto holds the distinction of Middleweight Champion, few recognize him as the best and he is unlikely to ever compete at the division's maximum weight of 160 pounds. Gennady Golovkin has emerged as the most feared MW in the world, but isn't a big enough of a name for Cotto to take what would almost assuredly be a brutal KO loss. Were Mayweather vs. Cotto II to happen, it would likely be at some sort of catchweight as Mayweather isn't really even a full-blown Welterweight. And it also would be unlikely that the winner would actually agree to face the recognized #1 threat in the division in Golovkin.

Mayweather's contract with Showtime guarantees him approximately $25M no matter what for each fight, but would earn more if PPV sales exceeded expectations. Mayweather operates in concert with powerful advisor Al Haymon, and three of the four fights on the Showtime contract featured Haymon clients as opponents. Pacquiao is hurt by sagging PPV sales and the December 2012 KO loss to Marquez. While Pacquiao has emerged with a strong victory over Top 5 PFP fighter Timothy Bradley and the capable Brandon Rios and Chris Algieri, he is arguably in more need of the fight than Mayweather. As stated in the article, Pacquiao has tax issues that a fight with Mayweather would help to alleviate. On the other hand, Showtime needs the fight to salvage their $200M contract with Mayweather. With the exception of the Alvarez fight, the two Maidana fights and contest with Guerrero have failed to meet expectations. For a normal fighter, PPV buys in the range of 700,000-900,000 are acceptable, but with Mayweather's astronomical guarantee Showtime has reportedly lost money on the deal. So disappointing were the numbers that Stephen Espinoza, the executive in charge of boxing at CBS, refuses to even acknowledge the actual figures. As was the case with Mike Tyson, the network needs this fight to work much like when Tyson fought Lennox Lewis in 2002.

Mayweather has pretty much lost the respect of most of the true boxing fans I interact with. His resume is littered with many of the best names of this generation, but with some of those wins come astericks. His win over Marquez came when JMM was essentially a Lightweight and Mayweather refused to come in at the proper weight, instead paying a six-figure sum to the Marquez camp. Canelo Alvarez was also forced to come in at a catchweight of 152 pounds, causing many to believe Canelo was drained by fight-night. Mayweather has avoided most notably Pacquiao, but in addition top threats at times including Paul Williams and Antonio Margarito.

Mayweather has given many reasons for declining the fight, ranging from the legitimate (drug testing) to worries about his long-term health. His strained relationship with Bob Arum is another contributing factor. Mayweather would prefer Pacquiao join Mayweather Promotions and leave Arum out of the process. That would be akin to Pacquiao asking that Al Haymon and Sam Watson be left out of negotiations. Arum and HBO have made significant investments in Pacquiao over the years and won't be left out of his most profitable fight.

The latest move has been made by Canelo Alvarez and Oscar De La Hoya, abandoning their pursuit of a Cotto fight and scheduling a regular HBO fight between Alvarez and the enigmatic James Kirkland on Cinco De Mayo weekend. Alvarez has made it his goal to own the two big Mexican holidays (the other being Independence weekend in September). A fight on non-PPV HBO would make it difficult for Mayweather to go forward with a contest against Cotto on that same date. HBO's scheduling of the May 2 date would seem to signal that Mayweather/Pacquiao is a no-go for good.

For a number of reasons, the failure of this fight to happen will ultimately be pinned on Mayweather and not Pacquiao. Both sides shoulder some of the blame, but it's apparent this time it is Mayweather who is putting up obstacles. Mayweather will likely retire with his "0" intact along with significant riches. That being said, in terms of fan admiration, Pacquiao will surpass Mayweather in that regard.

[H2O Man]

9. That's odd.

http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/12254197/bob-arum-says-fight-manny-pacquiao-floyd-mayweather-jr-finalized-next-couple-days


Yesterday, I was talking with an old friend, who was recently hired as a sparring partner by Floyd. My buddy is a southpaw, a former titler-holder, and was brough in because he does a good impression of Manny in sparring. I'd better let him know. Thanks!