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Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:11 PM

 

New CNN New Hampshire Poll: Bernie 60, Hillary 33, Martin 1

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-poll-democrats-full-results/index.html

Wow.

Edited to add O'Malley's numbers in the title.

12 replies, 1273 views

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Reply New CNN New Hampshire Poll: Bernie 60, Hillary 33, Martin 1 (Original post)
HerbChestnut Jan 2016 OP
Jarqui Jan 2016 #1
Logical Jan 2016 #12
Gregorian Jan 2016 #2
KingFlorez Jan 2016 #3
kenfrequed Jan 2016 #7
kenfrequed Jan 2016 #4
in_cog_ni_to Jan 2016 #5
HereSince1628 Jan 2016 #6
Jarqui Jan 2016 #8
HereSince1628 Jan 2016 #9
Jarqui Jan 2016 #10
Uncle Joe Jan 2016 #11

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:29 PM

1. Sanders 91% favorable 7% unfavorable

Holy sh*t!! That's flirting with unreal.

It climbs from June 66% favorable 11% unfavorable to the above.

Likewise, in June 35% Sanders, 43% Clinton flips to 60% Sanders 33% Clinton

"Which candidate is the least honest?" In June, Clinton leads handily with 28%. Today Clinton leads handily with 55%. Only 2% think Bernie is the least honest steadily over that time.

No wonder the Clinton campaign is scared. They'd already be seeing that in their internal polling.

I'm so happy for Bernie and his supporters. Win or lose, they should be proud of results like that given where they started and given what they've been up against (a DNC Clinton basically owns)

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Response to Jarqui (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 09:32 PM

12. Kicking ass! nt

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:33 PM

2. They went with Clinton on the "who's best at handling ISIS". Other than that, it's pretty much Bern

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:37 PM

3. This is a terrible pollster

Scream, rant and call me all the names you want, but this is a terrible pollster who had all sorts of crazy fluctuations in numbers in the 2012 cycle. In a couple of weeks it wouldn't be surprising if they should something completely different.

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Response to KingFlorez (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:43 PM

7. No, this is a bit of an outlier.

But, I think Bernie is still probably leading Clinton by ten points.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:42 PM

4. Careful though

I love those numbers and I know Sanders is leading.

But the numbers probably aren't as solid or as big as that. It is probably Sanders high 50's and Clinton low 40's to be honest. We don't want to get lured into some silly expectations game.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:42 PM

5. Here we go!

Bernie's got this!

You don't pull 7,000 people to a Birmingham, Alabama rally if you're an inconsequential candidate...sorry.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 05:42 PM

6. Does anyone know if this poll changed it's methodology?

Is there some structural reason, other than just the strangeness of chance, for this poll to look so different from the other recent polls in NH?

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Response to HereSince1628 (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 06:05 PM

8. On the surface, don't seem like it:

January poll
Conducted by the
University of New Hampshire
Survey Center
Interviews with 972 adults in New Hampshire conducted by
land line and cellular telephone on January 13-18, 2016
including 413 who say they plan to vote in the Republican
presidential primary and 420 respondents who say they plan
to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The margin
of sampling error for results based on Republican primary
voters is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points and for results
based on Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 4.8
percentage points.


Dec pollhttp://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/09/nh.dems.pdf

Interviews with 954 adults in New Hampshire conducted by
land line and cellular telephone on November 30-December 7,
2015 including 402 who say they plan to vote in the
Republican presidential primary and 370 respondents who
say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary.
The margin of sampling error for results based on
Republican primary voters is plus or minus 4.9 percentage
points and for results based on Democratic primary voters is
plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.


June poll
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/25/062515goppoll.pdf
Interviews with 1,010 adults in New Hampshire conducted by
land line and cellular telephone on June 18-24, 2015 including
402 who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential
primary and 360 respondents who say they plan to vote in the
Democratic presidential primary. The margin of sampling
error for results based on Republican primary voters is plus
or minus 4.9 percentage points and for results based on
Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 5.2 percentage
points.

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Response to Jarqui (Reply #8)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 06:07 PM

9. Thanks!

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Response to HereSince1628 (Reply #9)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 06:10 PM

10. There could be errors in demographics for example

that we cannot see

so my response is kind of like Hillary - not entirely trustworthy

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Jan 19, 2016, 06:17 PM

11. Well that looks intriguing.

Thanks for the thread, HerbChestnut.

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