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Tue Mar 1, 2016, 09:23 AM

Super Tuesday Predictions Point to Trump, Clinton Rout

Statistical models, betting markets, and the Internet weigh in.

Source: Bloomberg Politics by Andre Tartar and Ben Brody

On Tuesday, more delegates will be awarded than on any other day of the presidential race. About half of the delegates needed for a Republican candidate to win the nomination are at stake, plus about a third for Democrats. In roughly a dozen state races, Republican front-runner Donald Trump and Democratic leader Hillary Clinton seem poised to win in landslides that could render them nearly inevitable.

Delegates, though, will be awarded proportionally, so challengers could use the day to position themselves for an extended fight, particularly on the Republican side, where states only begin winner-take-all delegate allocation later in March. Below, six predictions that suggest Clinton and Trump might be coming up on a very good day.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is expected to win 10 of 11 states, according to the PredictWise model, up from eight before her win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday. She has a greater than 95 percent chance of winning delegate-rich Texas, Georgia, and Virginia. The odds lean toward Senator Bernie Sanders in his home state of Vermont and have shifted away from him in Colorado and Massachusetts.

“If Clinton carries the close states, then that could end the race on Tuesday,” Rothschild said in an e-mail. “She is now 95 percent to win the nomination.”

Read it all at: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-29/super-tuesday-predictions-point-to-trump-clinton-rout

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