2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Red State Meme: Which States are Actually the 'Reddest'?
Since there are so many posts about Clinton's reliance on "deep red" states in her race against Sanders, I thought I'd start a new thread to address this issue. So, to get a general idea of which states are the 'reddest', I'm going to post Romney's approximate margin of victory in each state he won in 2012. Where the margin is basically the same, I will look at the exact percentage difference and rank accordingly.
1) Utah: 48 points
2) Wyoming: 41 points
3) Oklahoma: 34 points
4) Idaho: 32 points
5) West Virginia: 27 points
6) Arkansas: 24 points
7) Nebraska: 23 points
8) Kentucky: 22 points (22.7)
9) Alabama: 22 points (22.3)
10) Kansas: 22 points (22.2)
11) Tennessee: 20 points (20.5)
12) North Dakota: 20 points (19.8)
13) South Dakota: 18 points
14) Louisiana: 17 points
15) Texas: 16 points
16) Alaska: 14 points (14.0)
17) Montana: 14 points (13.5)
18) Mississippi: 12 points
19) South Carolina: 11 points (10.6)
20) Indiana: 11 points (10.5)
21) Arizona: 10 points (10.1)
22) Missouri: 10 points (9.6)
23) Georgia: 8 points
24) North Carolina: 2 points
So, can the Red State Meme be put to rest now?
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Your basic question is interesting, but Romney was running against a black man. Please continue your analysis with other data.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...that Clinton is reliant on 'red' states against Sanders, that the primary season was frontloaded with these 'red' states, and that Clinton won't do well in the general election because of it. That meme needs to die. Actually, it never should have been given birth to, as it was always absurd. That meme actually takes reality and flips it on its head, as my post should make quite evident.
And, yes, demographics are key, of course. Do you think the folks voting for Clinton in the primary aren't going to vote for her in the general? Do you think Clinton wouldn't win the New England states or Washington or Oregon against Trump or Cruz?
As I've posted before:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511460282
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511495322
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511552338
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)insist on it no matter what. They're only a small minority and a lot of those are hiding from reality right here at DU, stroking each others' beliefs.
I'd enjoy reading more proof knocking their silliness down, anyway, but characterizing how red states vote for white people based on how a black man did in heavily-black red states won't do it. How about Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and Massachusetts, all states Hillary got a majority of the vote in, and none southern -- including Florida which is in a category all its own.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)In the population as a whole, they're a minority, though a fair number of 'journalists' have also promoted the meme.
Let me address something you wrote:
"...but characterizing how red states vote for white people based on how a black man did in heavily-black red states won't do it."
Only if you don't think black folks will vote for Clinton in the general. Bill Clinton did very well in the Deep South--better than Obama did, as a matter of fact. Of course, in the general election winning is all that matters, as winning the state garners you all of that state's electoral college votes. But that's beside the point of this thread.
As you noted, Clinton has done well in blue and purple states, as well. Largely due to her success in 'blue' areas (such as St. Louis as opposed to rural Missouri), which mirrors Obama's path to victory in '08 and '12. She won the 2 most important states, Ohio and Florida, by a healthy margin. And the point remains that the reddest states in the US are where Sanders (and not Clinton) is having his most success.
So, again, the meme needs to die.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)here, stakes and fire are out of the question in cyerville of course, and lacking those I think your method, sunlight, has the best chance of success. Good luck. Be brave.
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)The "red state" meme was dumb in 2008, and it's dumb this year. It's self-defeating when Sanders supporters use it, because without red states we would be worse off!
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But the number of delegates is what matters, of course. Sanders could win a majority of the primaries/caucuses and still not win more than 1700-1800 pledged delegates.