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pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:22 AM Jun 2016

Only 71 more delegates for Hillary to reach the "magic number."

Last edited Thu Jun 2, 2016, 03:02 PM - Edit history (1)

According to the AP, Hillary only needs 71 pledged delegates to reach the "magic number" -- the majority of the combined pledged and superdelegates. This would require about 9% of the remaining 781 outstanding pledged delegates.

In every election since the super delegates were created in 1984, the MSM has "called" the winner when this "magic number" -- half of ALL the delegates, counting ALL the delegates -- is reached.


Looking at pledged delegates only, to win the majority of them, Hillary only needs 33% of remaining pledged delegates.

To win the majority of pledged delegates Bernie needs 67% of the pledged delegates in ALL the remaining states.

So far, in only one primary (excluding caucuses), has Bernie won at least 67% -- Vermont.In only one other primary -- New Hampshire -- has he gotten even 60%.

Vermont and NH are 95% and 94% white, respectively. In all of the primaries Bernie has won, except for Oklahoma, the states had at least 79.9% white-only voters. (Greater than the 77.4% average in the U.S.)

There are only 73% white-only voters in California and New Jersey.

So, just to get his needed 67% in California, Bernie would have to do better than he has done in any primary outside of Vermont, and in a much more diverse state.

PRIMARIES BERNIE WON PERCENT WHITE-ONLY`

Indiana 52.5 86.1
Michigan 49.8 79.9
New Hampshire 60.4 94.
Oklahoma 51.9 75.1
Oregon 56.0 87.9
Rhode Island 54.6 85.1
Vermont 86.1 95.
West Virginia 51.4 93.7
Wisconsin 56.6 87.8

California, New Jersey, and New Mexico are all primaries.


(PERCENT WHITE-ONLY)

California 73.2
New Jersey 73.
New Mexico 82.8


AP DELEGATE TRACKER

https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

PRIMARY/CAUCUS RESULTS

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

US Demographics

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00

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Only 71 more delegates for Hillary to reach the "magic number." (Original Post) pnwmom Jun 2016 OP
Bernie can win 100% of California's 425 pledged delegates and he still won't have a PD majority ucrdem Jun 2016 #1
Right. And if he wins 100% of all remaining 781 pledged delegates he still pnwmom Jun 2016 #2
Yes, exactly. The PD mirage is not even attainable and yet his campaign is still clinging to it. ucrdem Jun 2016 #4
The math is against Sanders Gothmog Jun 2016 #3
Sanders lost when he wrote off the minority vote in March. nt LexVegas Jun 2016 #5
+1 Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #6
People hear you when you complain about "deep south" Maru Kitteh Jun 2016 #19
In a sea of pissing and moaning and manufactured outrage...some good news. Thanks! nt Sheepshank Jun 2016 #7
You're welcome! pnwmom Jun 2016 #8
K&R. nt UtahLib Jun 2016 #9
There will be peace in the valley once again. nt oasis Jun 2016 #10
K&R treestar Jun 2016 #11
Kickety! auntpurl Jun 2016 #12
But Sanders people have magic to draw on as well... brooklynite Jun 2016 #13
K&R Cary Jun 2016 #14
Looking good. Six more days. And thanks for the links at the end. George II Jun 2016 #15
And so, we'll nominate an insider candidate in an outsider year. Brilliant. Vinca Jun 2016 #16
We'll nominate an effective, experienced leader to oppose a narcissistic monster. pnwmom Jun 2016 #17
Just make sure she gets a damn secure Blackberry. Vinca Jun 2016 #18
"effective" Lizzie Poppet Jun 2016 #23
thank you, pnwmom! Cha Jun 2016 #20
KNR Thank you! Lucinda Jun 2016 #21
Great information, with, like facts NastyRiffraff Jun 2016 #22

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
1. Bernie can win 100% of California's 425 pledged delegates and he still won't have a PD majority
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:26 AM
Jun 2016

or the nomination. The 67% figure is #BernieMath and basically functions to give Sanders' followers false hope because even if he got it he'd still have lost the nomination.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
2. Right. And if he wins 100% of all remaining 781 pledged delegates he still
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:29 AM
Jun 2016

would come up short because he needs more than 800 to reach the majority of all pledged and super delegates.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
4. Yes, exactly. The PD mirage is not even attainable and yet his campaign is still clinging to it.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:33 AM
Jun 2016

p.s. local NPR just reported a 13% Clinton lead in California

Maru Kitteh

(28,303 posts)
19. People hear you when you complain about "deep south"
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 06:26 PM
Jun 2016

and throw in little pips like "low information."

Crazy that.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
17. We'll nominate an effective, experienced leader to oppose a narcissistic monster.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:31 PM
Jun 2016

And it isn't the year of the outsider. The insider had three million more votes.

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