2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOnly 71 more delegates for Hillary to reach the "magic number."
Last edited Thu Jun 2, 2016, 03:02 PM - Edit history (1)
According to the AP, Hillary only needs 71 pledged delegates to reach the "magic number" -- the majority of the combined pledged and superdelegates. This would require about 9% of the remaining 781 outstanding pledged delegates.
In every election since the super delegates were created in 1984, the MSM has "called" the winner when this "magic number" -- half of ALL the delegates, counting ALL the delegates -- is reached.
Looking at pledged delegates only, to win the majority of them, Hillary only needs 33% of remaining pledged delegates.
To win the majority of pledged delegates Bernie needs 67% of the pledged delegates in ALL the remaining states.
So far, in only one primary (excluding caucuses), has Bernie won at least 67% -- Vermont.In only one other primary -- New Hampshire -- has he gotten even 60%.
Vermont and NH are 95% and 94% white, respectively. In all of the primaries Bernie has won, except for Oklahoma, the states had at least 79.9% white-only voters. (Greater than the 77.4% average in the U.S.)
There are only 73% white-only voters in California and New Jersey.
So, just to get his needed 67% in California, Bernie would have to do better than he has done in any primary outside of Vermont, and in a much more diverse state.
PRIMARIES BERNIE WON PERCENT WHITE-ONLY`
Indiana 52.5 86.1
Michigan 49.8 79.9
New Hampshire 60.4 94.
Oklahoma 51.9 75.1
Oregon 56.0 87.9
Rhode Island 54.6 85.1
Vermont 86.1 95.
West Virginia 51.4 93.7
Wisconsin 56.6 87.8
California, New Jersey, and New Mexico are all primaries.
(PERCENT WHITE-ONLY)
California 73.2
New Jersey 73.
New Mexico 82.8
AP DELEGATE TRACKER
https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/
PRIMARY/CAUCUS RESULTS
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president
US Demographics
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)or the nomination. The 67% figure is #BernieMath and basically functions to give Sanders' followers false hope because even if he got it he'd still have lost the nomination.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)would come up short because he needs more than 800 to reach the majority of all pledged and super delegates.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)p.s. local NPR just reported a 13% Clinton lead in California
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)LexVegas
(6,005 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,303 posts)and throw in little pips like "low information."
Crazy that.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)pnwmom
(108,925 posts)oasis
(49,152 posts)Some real math.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I like data.
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)Pesky things those facts are.
George II
(67,782 posts)Vinca
(50,170 posts)pnwmom
(108,925 posts)And it isn't the year of the outsider. The insider had three million more votes.
Vinca
(50,170 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Cha
(295,926 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Thanks for posting it, pnwmom