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Sat Mar 10, 2012, 01:49 AM

PPP: Dramatic new Maine #s from PPP Obama up 23 points; Obama 58- Romney 35

PPP has just completed a very comprehensive polling in Maine.

Obama did well in Maine 4 years ago but now he has increased it by even 6 more points. PPP also anticipates that NH is "much improved in New Hampshire and these numbers seem like they may reinforce the argument that he's getting stronger in the region."

And this is Romney's back yard.

Thank you Rush Limbaugh, Darrell Issa and the rest of the clowns. The dimensions of this type of movement is significant because it means that the President's campaign will be able to allocate more and more resources to swing and red states. It means that House Republicans in the NE will face a Tsunami if these numbers were maintained.

All of this comes after the Republicans have had 6 months bashing the President and the President has been waiting and saving his money.

Now if Romney can't do well in a place like Maine (or New Hampshire) then where in the hell is he going to out perform McCain?




http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-standing-much-improved-in-maine.html#more

Maine pretty well represents the significant upgrade Barack Obama's seen in his reelection prospects over the last four months. When PPP polled there in late October he led Mitt Romney by only 11 points, 49-38. That represented a 6 point tightening from Obama's margin of victory over John McCain there in 2008. Since then Obama's Maine lead has more than doubled to 23 points at 58-35 against Romney, representing a 6 point improvement on his 2008 numbers.

It's not hard to explain Obama's improved numbers: he's getting more popular, and Romney's getting less popular. In October Obama was slightly under water in the state at 47/48. Now he's quite popular with 55% of voters approving of him to 41% who disapprove.

There are two big reasons for his improvement, and these are things we're seeing most places right now:

-The Democratic base is unifying around him. In October he was at 75/17 with his party's voters, now it's 86/10. The more Democratic voters see the Republican candidate field, the more they forgive Obama for not being completely perfect and get behind him.

-Obama's flipped independents from giving him negative reviews (46/49) to positive ones (54/38).



Meanwhile Romney's headed in the opposite direction. His numbers were already poor in October at a 38/49 favorability spread. But they're much worse now with only 30% of voters seeing him favorably to 63% with a negative opinion.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 02:06 AM

1. What's the makeup of voters in Maine? Anyone have that info? Dems/Repubs

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Response to demosincebirth (Reply #1)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 09:52 AM

4. I don't have any exact figures

but I would say that Maine is mostly a Democratic state....until you head way up north, then it's mostly republican. We do like independents and moderate members of either party. LeRage is republican, but was elected with only 38% of the vote. He won't be reelected.

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Response to demosincebirth (Reply #1)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 10:44 AM

5. Maine is a blue state, not a VERY blue state like most of the rest of New England

but a blue state nonetheless.

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 13, 2012, 12:49 PM

10. They also had a lunatic get elected governor in a 3-way debacle of a race.

He got like 35% and got elected with a plurality.

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Response to demosincebirth (Reply #1)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 12:12 PM

6. Tabs for the poll with comparisons to 2008 are here.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #6)

Sun Mar 11, 2012, 02:27 AM

8. Thanks all for the information.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 05:16 AM

2. I hope that's predictive of a full-on rout in November.

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 08:24 AM

3. What if Obama improved his numbers by 6 points nationwide?

 

For starters, he'd win by about a 56%-43% rout.

Not only would he carry every state he won in 2008, Obama would pick up Georgia, Missouri and Montana. He'd win Vermont with over 70% of the vote, and Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Carolina with over 50%.

The states that would be agonizingly close - while still voting Republican - would be South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota and Arizona.

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Response to Alexander (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 11, 2012, 04:05 AM

9. If that happen you would see Intrade give the President about 61% and Romney about 30%


Oh shit that's where Intrade is!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 04:38 PM

7. I keep telling myself it's still early, and lots of things can happen, but one can't help but be....

encouraged by these numbers. Numbers like these have a huge psychological impact on the rank & file. People love to back a winner, and unless the bottom completely falls out of our economy, I don't see this president losing to any of the Neanderthals he's up against.

I think the president's improved fortunes from the left have much to do with the fact that we're tuning out more & more of the noise from his leftist critics, and embracing those we see as trying to actually help. What the "holding his feet to the fire" crowd don't seem to get is that our fortunes won't be improved with a Republican White House, Congress & USSC; quite the contrary, in fact.

Obama/Biden 2012!!!!

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