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Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:03 PM

 

From LA Times Poll: Of those who already voted, Bernie 48, Hillary 43.

https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/1eu09pms0l0atruk3qu9bdpynsun1fvw

Now there's an interesting result.

15 replies, 1660 views

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:06 PM

1. either it's wrong or the poll showing Clinton leading by 15 points amongst those who already voted

 

is wrong.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:08 PM

4. Might depend on when they were taken.

 

Or the early voting demographic might be tough to sample.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #4)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:12 PM

5. small sample size, probably not too reliable to wade too deep into the weeds nt

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:06 PM

2. I really think people jumped the gun and posted this before delving into the numbers.

This is the second poll in a row where Bernie leads among Latinos.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:08 PM

3. Hope this holds true! nt

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:16 PM

6. Hillary is the most anemic "presumptive nominee" in history.


If she gets the nomination, I bet half the Bernie delegates don't even show up at the convention.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:31 PM

7. according to WSJ Hillary 58 Bernie 41

LA Times poll conducted May 16-31,
WSJ conducted May 29-31.

Guess we'll find out later.

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Response to 6chars (Reply #7)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:41 PM

11. At least in Michigan, the only poll to be right was conducted over a month.

 

I wonder if conducting a poll over a longer span allows us to get a more diverse sample and thus more accurate?

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #11)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:50 PM

12. not for the "already voted" pool

that wouldn't be subject to opinions fluttering around with the latest stories, and the shorter poll at the end of the period would be more reliable because it would include all people who have already voted in equal proportions, while the longer period poll would over represent people who voted early (because they would answer that they already voted whether they were called on May 16 or May 31).

but no poll is really that reliable, as we learn repeatedly. so we shall see.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:33 PM

8. Considering that, as a whole, CA polls seem to be trending in Bernie's favor, that's huge, if true.

One of the big things he's had to deal with all year is that, in a given state, by the time he starts holding rallies, advertising, participating in local town halls/debates, firing people up and moving polls in his direction, often a bunch of people have already voted, and those early votes that were cast before all that activity would tend to favor Hillary, especially earlier in the process when he wasn't well known at all.


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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:34 PM

9. 48+43=91. Who did the other 9% vote for? (n/t)

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #9)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:37 PM

10. One of the other 5 Democratic candidates listed on the ballot.

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #9)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:29 PM

13. The link says

2 percent for another candidate
2 percent undecided? But they already voted?
5 percent refuse to answer
1 percent will not vote (But they already voted?

for 101 percent


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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:43 PM

14. These polls are all contradicting one another.

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:47 PM

15. K & R

 

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