2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton camp: We'll win California in 'tight race'
"I think its, like a lot of states, its close, its competitive. I think we win a tight race," Joel Benenson said in an interview on CNN's "New Day," adding, "And I think were gonna win New Jersey Im pretty confident about that earlier in the evening no matter how it comes out."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-california-primary-2016-223931
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This tells me their internal polling must be good otherwise they would never predict a win even a "tight" one.
Sounds like its going to be a big night tomorrow for Madam Nominee!
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)calguy
(5,222 posts)With Trump already clinching the GOP, a whole lot of republicans could switch over and vote for Bernie.
An right in thinking CA's semi open primary allows R's to vote for D's??
Someone educate me if I am wrong.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I haven't heard that there was any switching of parties just an increase in voter registrations and those were mostly Latinos.
calguy
(5,222 posts)Retrograde
(10,068 posts)according to Mother Jones yesterday, most of them likely No Party Preference so they can vote for Sanders. In this year's primary, the Dems, Libertarians and American Independence Party are letting non-partisan (or No Party Preference) voters choose a candidate for president.
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)since there is rarely (if ever?) any contested repub contests here.
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)however Trump was clearly the nominee early enough for "R"s to change their registration to either "D" or "NPP" which would allow them to vote.
I know because I changed my NPP status to "R" thinking I might try to help throw a monkey wrench into the republican primary...but it was clear that Trump had won so I reverted to my NPP status
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)and one poll I saw said that "republican leaning" voters are about a third of NPP voters. It's about 1.4 million "republican leaning" voters who are allowed to vote in the democratic primary.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)ballot, but R's can't. And there is no same-day registration.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)mentioned at the very end when Hillary asked everyone to vote on Tuesday. Everyone in line was given a form to complete to volunteer to phone bank or canvass these last three days.
Hillary did not mention Bernie at all. Her speech was all about defeating Trump.
BootinUp
(46,924 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Minorities and women will hand CA to Hillary tomorrow.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)is pro Hillary.
Retrograde
(10,068 posts)I think the difference will be less than 5%, and it could swing either way. Of course, I have a near perfect record of being wrong with my predictions.....
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Go Hillary!
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Predicting a win means their internals are good. Saying it's "tight" is so they don't depress voter turnout.
I've predicted Hillary wins CA by between 5-9%...but I'll be even happier if she wins big!
Of course, the thing that makes me happiest of all is that Hillary doesn't need to win CA at all.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)That be more than good enough.
LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)CA will just add to her by then unnecessary delegate count.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Seeinghope
(786 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Bernie's the one who needs a record-breaking landslide to close the massive pledged delegate gap.
Seeinghope
(786 posts)with Hillary Clinton all but formally being the presumptive nominee why would SO MANY voters go to the polls for Bernie Sanders?
As far as Hillary Clinton goes, why would she barely be winning California? At this stage in the Primary we should be seeing a tidal wave of support coming together for a candidate that is "going to clinch" the Presidential nomination.
If this is a slim win in her column, it really is a loss for her. She has had a few too many "slim" wins and she has the "whole" establishment behind her giving her every possible advantage that they could give her. She has done poorly against a virtually unknown candidate this whole primary season. Yes, she has 3,000,000 more votes but considering that she probably went into the race with most of those votes just like she went into the race with her Super Delegates doesn't say anything about the real time voters.
When you walk into a race with a the world knowing who you are and millions already behind you (including the whole establishment). Boasting about about a 3,000,000 vote lead really isn't anything to brag about. Like I said she has building support since she was 1st Lady back in the early 90's. Being on a national and international stage for 25+ years. Running against an unknown should have been a cakewalk. All you have to do is look at Trump. How many candidates did he run against? Most with well known names. A couple with superpower names equal to his. He handily knocked them all out. Not just one candidate but all of them.
Squeaking by at this point is a huge loss for a superstar with the WHOLE ESTABLISHMENT behind her. Whereas Bernie Sanders an unknown candidate with MOST of the ESTABLISHMENT working against him has still run an impressive campaign and has shown himself to be a formidable opponent and definetly not a quitter. That is why he had so much legislation passed In his career. He is tenacious and he offers hope to people that are losing hope in their lives and he is offering to help us bring our country back to the working class.
So he's, after all of this, if it is a close race.......Hillary Clinton has nothing to be proud of.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Seeinghope
(786 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Seeinghope
(786 posts)supposed to be already be the "presumptive nominee". Fact. Not delusion.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Seeinghope
(786 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Seeinghope
(786 posts)President of the United States. There are plenty threads covering different aspects of the candidates. The policy differences. The Primaries. (The actual name/purpose of this forum/group btw). I'll be respectful and stick to the topic of the thread (something you are supposed to do if you are in a debate which in a way this forum is). Feel free to rewrite the rules though, Hillary Clinton does.
jcgoldie
(11,583 posts)...and then you fall further behind... that isn't a loss for your opponent.
Seeinghope
(786 posts)Then talk to someone else.
Sanders at this late stage of the game, with Hillary Clinton leading by a large margin and the Primary season just about over should be taking California easily.
There is a reason why she might just be squeaking by.....overall she is not a strong candidate..
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Geez, she hasn't even won the state yet! Maybe wait til then to denigrate her in yet another goal-post moving way.
She doesn't need to win CA at all - that's how far ahead she is.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)It'll just put him further behind in pledged delegates and popular vote. In other words, it would be over for him.
Seeinghope
(786 posts)over the top but it would show her to be such a weak candidate further proving that a virtually unknown candidate (unknown a mere 6 months ago), could still almost beat Hillary Clinton in a huge primary like California. At just about the end of the Primary season the unknown is still getting enough votes to be threatening to the giant superstar.
That, to me,says that the superstar isn't too super.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)would be the losing candidate trying to get the supers to switch when he couldn't beat her himself. Talk about a WEAK candidate. Really doesn't matter - Bernie is done after tomorrow.
Seeinghope
(786 posts)You sound very sure of yourself. Got those cancelled checks? Proof of quid pro quo? Or just spouting off because you're candidate is losing?
Seeinghope
(786 posts)President of the United States than Hillary Clinton could ever hope to be. I cannot help what people choose. All you have to do is look at Trump. He is the .....winner too! LOL!!! Hillary Clinton is in fine company! They both are REAL winners. This time around the American people will lose horribly.....at least I can say that I did not vote for either one of them. My conscience is clear.
Just wait you will have a lot to answer for.
So no proof of quid pro quo. How pathetically predictable.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)like a handicap in golf.
I think Bernie thought getting 40% of the vote and delegates should give him the nomination because he was never really a democrat and really only spent about 6 months running for the position, while Hillary had a 10 year headstart.
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)pnwmom
(108,925 posts)But a loss won't be important.
All she needs is 30% of the pledged delegates in the five states to reach a majority of pledged delegates. Than she'll have majorities of pledged, majorities of combined pledged/super delegates, and millions more votes from voters.
Demsrule86
(68,348 posts)Will Bernie concede and endorse?
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)No reason to expect that to change
Skink
(10,122 posts)There goes the 3 million lead.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)And it ain't hillary
DCBob
(24,689 posts)SoCalNative
(4,613 posts)and it wasn't for Bernie
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)And it's funny you think Bernie will get over 3 million votes in CA.
merrily
(45,251 posts)On Mon Jun 6, 2016, 12:57 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
HRC supporters will be at home watching Fox News at 5 Est instead of voting
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2137969
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
Broad brush smear. Posting insults suggesting Clinton supporters are republican fox watchers.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon Jun 6, 2016, 01:05 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I think it was meant humorously and the poster neglected the sarcasm indicator.
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Rude.
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Calling Hillary supporters Fox news watchers is the same thing as calling them republicans.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's a freaking joke.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It is a stupid post by someone who is in the last throes of denial. But not hide-worthy. Clinton supporters do NOT watch Fox News unless forced to under threat of death or harm to a loved one, so the attempt at a smear simply does not apply.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I disagree with the original post, but in the grand scheme of things I don't think it's that bad (I've seen much worse).
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: This post is harmless. It's just not worth anyone's concern.
Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)Dems, so they didn't have to request a special ballot for this election. It was automatically sent to them weeks ago.
coyote
(1,561 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)coyote
(1,561 posts)Like she did in Arizona.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Saint Bernie couldn't possibly lose a fair election.
coyote
(1,561 posts)The fix is in as AP disses Sanders, erroneously names Clinton Democratic nominee
http://thebernreport.com/ap-erroneously-names-clinton-democratic-nominee/
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,303 posts)Will be one hell of a fun night!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,303 posts)Sweet for victory!
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Half of California's pledged delegates comes up to 237. She won't need anything close to that many to have the majority of pledged delegates, when added to the PR, VI and other races. She'll win delegates in every one of the primaries.
Hillary will emerge from Tuesday's elections with way more than the 2026 pledged delegates she needs to have the majority. How many more, I can't say, but I estimate that she'll probably have about 100 more than she needs, plus or minus a few.
On Wednesday morning Hillary Clinton will be the undeniable presumptive nominee. It will be a great day in this primary season.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I dont get it. CA was his big chance to make a big gain and he's not going to do it. He loses.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Pledged delegates. They're all that matters. Winning a state by a shoestring is totally meaningless,at this point.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It will all be over tomorrow I think.