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arely staircase

(12,482 posts)
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 06:54 PM Jun 2016

Bernie' s California numbers will be higher because of the AP announcement.

People who like him more but think HRC will be a stronger nominee will now vote for him without the fear that he will actually get the nomination.

So win or lose his numbers will be higher than if there were still really a contest.

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Bernie' s California numbers will be higher because of the AP announcement. (Original Post) arely staircase Jun 2016 OP
I'm seeing reports of mediocre turnout in CA. CrowCityDem Jun 2016 #1
If True pmorlan1 Jun 2016 #5
First signs of the Hillary Effect... dchill Jun 2016 #6
Been on the phone all day. Hearing the same thing. JudyM Jun 2016 #24
That's a good point. Hadn't thought of that democrattotheend Jun 2016 #2
You haven't provided a good argument or evidence that your scenario is more likely... PoliticAverse Jun 2016 #3
I just know toomany Dems who say Bernie is closer to them on the issues but are supporting HRC becau arely staircase Jun 2016 #11
Now that the candidate I like won't be the nominee, I shall vote for him--Said no voter, ever. JimDandy Jun 2016 #4
Exactly. nt bunnies Jun 2016 #15
The spin, contortions, lack of sensible analysis and many conclusions drawn by Clinton supporters JimDandy Jun 2016 #19
I'm no longer amazed. Or even surprised. bunnies Jun 2016 #21
Jeff Weaver said an early announcement would hurt turnout on both sides. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #7
We do know who was hurt more because there is a solid poll here that says low turnout would Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #9
It hurts ballot initiatives more. JRLeft Jun 2016 #10
No it will sink Bernie because he was hoping for higher turnout Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #8
maybe. That is a valid theory, but not based on anything more than speculation - like, admittedly, arely staircase Jun 2016 #12
No it's based on a USC/LA Times poll which strongly indicated Hillary would win Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #13
its the perfect excuse for sanders if he loses - it's not ME its ABC lol nt msongs Jun 2016 #14
So the people who registered this week are going to vote when it doesn't matter? bunnies Jun 2016 #16
You DO bring the LULZ... Predictable, but amusing. AzDar Jun 2016 #17
The backhanded complements are so boring and predictable. Rex Jun 2016 #18
Thankyou. hellofromreddit Jun 2016 #20
Compare these two threads. Rex Jun 2016 #22
Lots of people in California had already voted prior to the AP announcement. book_worm Jun 2016 #23

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
2. That's a good point. Hadn't thought of that
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 06:56 PM
Jun 2016

But someone on here reported canvassing last night and meeting Bernie supporters who didn't think there was any point in voting because the media was saying Hillary had already won. So it could go either way.

That said, you might be right. My landlord was one of those people - he was torn between the two of them but I'm pretty sure he ended up going with Hillary because he thinks she is tough enough to beat Trump. If he were voting tomorrow he might have voted for Bernie.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
3. You haven't provided a good argument or evidence that your scenario is more likely...
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:00 PM
Jun 2016

than that predicted by the "Bandwagon Effect".

arely staircase

(12,482 posts)
11. I just know toomany Dems who say Bernie is closer to them on the issues but are supporting HRC becau
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:12 PM
Jun 2016

they perceive her to be more electable. I think those people, not just people I know but others like them, will vote for the perceived less electable guy they agree with if the perceived more electable candidate has it locked up.

It is a theory. A hunch. Nothing more. But it has a logic too it. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
19. The spin, contortions, lack of sensible analysis and many conclusions drawn by Clinton supporters
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:53 PM
Jun 2016

amaze me.


 

bunnies

(15,859 posts)
21. I'm no longer amazed. Or even surprised.
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:02 PM
Jun 2016

This cycle has become a joke of epic proportions. Nothing but a scripted fucking reality show at this point. I find it difficult to take it seriously.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
7. Jeff Weaver said an early announcement would hurt turnout on both sides.
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:06 PM
Jun 2016

And I think he's right. Impossible to say for certain who it hurts more. Regardless, Clinton was going to become the nominee, and I suspect she'd rather the news had broken during prime time on an election night (as opposed to late the night before).

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
9. We do know who was hurt more because there is a solid poll here that says low turnout would
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:09 PM
Jun 2016

help Hillary in California.



Poll: Sanders edging Clinton out in California

A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday evening shows Sanders leading with 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent.
...

But, the poll found, Clinton has a 10-point lead among those likely to vote next week, primarily due to support from older voters.

Sanders has continued to close the gap between him and Clinton and has been campaigning hard across the state.

“Bernie Sanders has tapped into a wellspring of support in the Democratic primary over the last several weeks and he’s closing with a rush,” said Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, which partnered with the L.A. Times to conduct the poll.

"If Clinton manages to hold him off and win the primary, it would be as a result of a low turnout that tilts the electorate in her direction."
...
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-leads-hillary-clinton-new-poll-california

arely staircase

(12,482 posts)
12. maybe. That is a valid theory, but not based on anything more than speculation - like, admittedly,
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:14 PM
Jun 2016

my own theory.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
13. No it's based on a USC/LA Times poll which strongly indicated Hillary would win
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:18 PM
Jun 2016

would win California in a low turnout situation, But Bernie was slightly ahead (inside the margin of error) in a high turnout situation.

Motive established: USC/LA Times Poll shows Bernie winning California if turnout was high

Poll: Sanders edging Clinton out in California

A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday evening shows Sanders leading with 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent.
...

But, the poll found, Clinton has a 10-point lead among those likely to vote next week, primarily due to support from older voters.

Sanders has continued to close the gap between him and Clinton and has been campaigning hard across the state.

“Bernie Sanders has tapped into a wellspring of support in the Democratic primary over the last several weeks and he’s closing with a rush,” said Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, which partnered with the L.A. Times to conduct the poll.

"If Clinton manages to hold him off and win the primary, it would be as a result of a low turnout that tilts the electorate in her direction."
...
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-leads-hillary-clinton-new-poll-california


 

bunnies

(15,859 posts)
16. So the people who registered this week are going to vote when it doesn't matter?
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:47 PM
Jun 2016

Doubtful. It'll all be based on mail-ins. Bernie has no chance.

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
18. The backhanded complements are so boring and predictable.
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:50 PM
Jun 2016

As a HRC supporter, I am really embarrassed by some of my fellow supporters behavior. It just shows you their character.

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
22. Compare these two threads.
Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:07 PM
Jun 2016
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512151645
I guess gloaters are gonna gloat. However some of us HRC supporters love BS and his ideas and want to see what he does next.
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