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Bill USA

(6,436 posts)
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 04:34 PM Jun 2016

Clinton lead grows by 36k in CA with 339k more votes counted

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/6/11/1537395/-Clinton-lead-grows-by-36k-in-CA-with-339k-more-votes-counted


When the early vote by mail was reported on election night in California, if you remember, Clinton got as much as 62% with around a 400,000 vote margin. That margin held for several hours as her percentage lead shrunk, with the candidates splitting the election day vote about evenly, but when Los Angeles County started catching up to other areas, her lead started growing again, to 438,537. By 5pm EDT June 8th, when most news sites stopped updating, Clinton led 1,940,580 to 1,502,043, 56% to 44%, but nobody knew how the vote would come in over the next few days. As Bernie said:


[blockquote style="border:1px solid #000000;padding:10px;"]The Vermont senator said he would “of course” be competing in the final Democratic primary in Washington, D.C. next week, and that he looked forward “to the full counting of the votes in California which I suspect will show a much closer vote than the current vote tally.”

By 10pm EDT June 10th, the latest totals show Clinton leading 2,128,194 to 1,653,416, which means 338,937 more ballots for the candidates have been counted. Clinton got 187,614, Sanders 151,373, which works out to a 55% to 45% split in the late votes, growing Clinton’s lead by 36,241 to 474,778. In other words, it looks like the late votes being counted so far match earlier votes already counted. Maybe more Latino votes are being counted late, or maybe the mix of ballots mailed before versus on election day, but received after, is similar to the mix of early versus in person election day votes. Either way, Clinton is holding on to her 10 or 11 point vote margin, and her pledged delegate count.

UPDATE: Here is the latest information on the CA vote counting process from the Los Angeles Times:

[blockquote style="border:1px solid #000000;10 px;"]For the politically curious, it's the best guessing game around: What's in the uncounted ballots from election day, and how many of them will change closely watched races across the state?

On Friday afternoon, Secretary of State Alex Padilla reported that there were 2,423,607 uncounted ballots statewide. About two-thirds of those are vote-by-mail ballots, with three Southern California counties leading the way: Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange.

Reports from a number of the state's 58 counties haven't changed for a few days, so expect the figures to shift pretty noticeably by early next week.

And one other part of the process: This is the first year in which ballots that arrive up to three days late -- Friday would be the deadline -- can be counted. So the number of ballots on hand could also change.
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still_one

(91,945 posts)
3. A lot of those ballots that haven't been counted yet were mail-in-ballots, and
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 05:03 PM
Jun 2016

the early mail in ballots favored Hillary, and if the same pattern holds, nothing is going to change

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
6. He flipped San Lois Obispo and Santa Barbara
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 06:35 PM
Jun 2016

Hillary lost both counties by 8 points in 2008. He's in 50.1-49.9 range. He's underperforming Obama v. Hillary pretty severely.

Retrograde

(10,068 posts)
12. Current difference in Santa Barbara Co is ~100 votes
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 07:17 PM
Jun 2016

and there are still ~20,000 unprocessed ballots. Not that it matters much, since delegates are awarded proportionately by Congressional district rather than county.

I expect a few locations will continue to bounce back and forth until the final votes are counted and certified.

jillan

(39,451 posts)
15. Link other than Kos? I checked the links from that post and neither one said such thing.
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 08:04 PM
Jun 2016

There was a graph to the green papers that is dated 6/7 and a link to the LATimes which says as of today there are still 2.4 million ballots left to count?

I didn't see anything to back up your OP.

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