2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton lead grows by 36k in CA with 339k more votes counted
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/6/11/1537395/-Clinton-lead-grows-by-36k-in-CA-with-339k-more-votes-countedWhen the early vote by mail was reported on election night in California, if you remember, Clinton got as much as 62% with around a 400,000 vote margin. That margin held for several hours as her percentage lead shrunk, with the candidates splitting the election day vote about evenly, but when Los Angeles County started catching up to other areas, her lead started growing again, to 438,537. By 5pm EDT June 8th, when most news sites stopped updating, Clinton led 1,940,580 to 1,502,043, 56% to 44%, but nobody knew how the vote would come in over the next few days. As Bernie said:
[blockquote style="border:1px solid #000000;padding:10px;"]The Vermont senator said he would of course be competing in the final Democratic primary in Washington, D.C. next week, and that he looked forward to the full counting of the votes in California which I suspect will show a much closer vote than the current vote tally.
By 10pm EDT June 10th, the latest totals show Clinton leading 2,128,194 to 1,653,416, which means 338,937 more ballots for the candidates have been counted. Clinton got 187,614, Sanders 151,373, which works out to a 55% to 45% split in the late votes, growing Clintons lead by 36,241 to 474,778. In other words, it looks like the late votes being counted so far match earlier votes already counted. Maybe more Latino votes are being counted late, or maybe the mix of ballots mailed before versus on election day, but received after, is similar to the mix of early versus in person election day votes. Either way, Clinton is holding on to her 10 or 11 point vote margin, and her pledged delegate count.
UPDATE: Here is the latest information on the CA vote counting process from the Los Angeles Times:
[blockquote style="border:1px solid #000000;10 px;"]For the politically curious, it's the best guessing game around: What's in the uncounted ballots from election day, and how many of them will change closely watched races across the state?
On Friday afternoon, Secretary of State Alex Padilla reported that there were 2,423,607 uncounted ballots statewide. About two-thirds of those are vote-by-mail ballots, with three Southern California counties leading the way: Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange.
Reports from a number of the state's 58 counties haven't changed for a few days, so expect the figures to shift pretty noticeably by early next week.
And one other part of the process: This is the first year in which ballots that arrive up to three days late -- Friday would be the deadline -- can be counted. So the number of ballots on hand could also change.
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tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)still_one
(91,945 posts)the early mail in ballots favored Hillary, and if the same pattern holds, nothing is going to change
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Hillary lost both counties by 8 points in 2008. He's in 50.1-49.9 range. He's underperforming Obama v. Hillary pretty severely.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Overall seems like same result.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)msongs
(67,193 posts)Retrograde
(10,068 posts)and there are still ~20,000 unprocessed ballots. Not that it matters much, since delegates are awarded proportionately by Congressional district rather than county.
I expect a few locations will continue to bounce back and forth until the final votes are counted and certified.
Number23
(24,544 posts)oasis
(49,150 posts)No, not really.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)There was a graph to the green papers that is dated 6/7 and a link to the LATimes which says as of today there are still 2.4 million ballots left to count?
I didn't see anything to back up your OP.