Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
Tue Aug 16, 2016, 10:35 AM Aug 2016

Electoral vote model update.

Two models: one that only uses current polling, and one that takes the current poll as a starting point and and includes a random drift term...essentially projecting the current scenario forward to the election.

Previous model writeups:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

Model projections:

Probability of D win using current polling: 93.8%
average number of electoral votes: 326.4
median number of electoral votes: 330
most common electoral scenario: 337 electoral votes

Probability of D win projected forward to November election: 79.3%
average number of electoral votes: 299.3
median number of electoral votes: 301
most common electoral scenario: 293 electoral votes

model appears to be converging to consensus estimates.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Electoral vote model upda...