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Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:08 AM Sep 2016

Election Model Update 9/30

9/27 Update

9/25 Update

9/24 Update

9/21 Update

9/22 Update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

Model projections:


#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 74.51 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 294.38
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 297.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 303

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 66.5 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 286.49
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 291

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 1.93

Long range forecast starting to climb significantly again. Slight reduction in instantaneous forecast, likely just noise in the distribution estimates. Expect instantaneous forecast to converge to long range in the next few weeks.
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Election Model Update 9/30 (Original Post) Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 OP
TY. You are better than Silver. You are gold. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #1
Get me a fat contract with ESPN Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #4
Thanks MFM008 Sep 2016 #2
Trump got 15 million votes in the primaries.. mountain grammy Sep 2016 #3
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