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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumElection Model Update 9/30
9/27 Update9/25 Update
9/24 Update
9/21 Update
9/22 Update
9/1/2016 update
8/16/2016 update
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
Model projections:
#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################
Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 74.51 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 294.38
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 297.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 303
#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################
Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 66.5 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 286.49
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 291
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 1.93
Long range forecast starting to climb significantly again. Slight reduction in instantaneous forecast, likely just noise in the distribution estimates. Expect instantaneous forecast to converge to long range in the next few weeks.
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Election Model Update 9/30 (Original Post)
Loki Liesmith
Sep 2016
OP
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)1. TY. You are better than Silver. You are gold.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)4. Get me a fat contract with ESPN
and maybe I'll agree.
MFM008
(19,776 posts)2. Thanks
mountain grammy
(26,571 posts)3. Trump got 15 million votes in the primaries..
that's all he should get, the same 15 million morons.