Seriously, what do you suppose Allan Lichtman is thinking right now?

Does he still stand by his model, or does he stand closer to the caveat he left for himself saying that his model works for "traditional" election cycles but that Trump is so "unusual" he could prove his model wrong this time?

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5 replies	Author	Time	Post
Seriously, what do you suppose Allan Lichtman is thinking right now? (Original post)	RBInMaine	Oct 2016	OP
he says this	rbrnmw	Oct 2016	#1
That was a month ago	canetoad	Oct 2016	#3
He's now hoping Johnson doesn't get 5% of the vote	unblock	Oct 2016	#2
Usually Alan Licthman is ....	LenaBaby61	Oct 2016	#4
that he's finally been exposed for the extremely fortunate con artist he's always been?	Gabi Hayes	Oct 2016	#5

Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sat Oct 22, 2016, 07:46 PM

rbrnmw (7,160 posts)

1. he says this

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

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Response to rbrnmw (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 22, 2016, 08:00 PM

canetoad (15,846 posts)

3. That was a month ago

Last news from him is around 5 October where he says Trump is, 'dangerously precedent-breaking candidate'. Nothing since then.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sat Oct 22, 2016, 07:59 PM

unblock (51,291 posts)

2. He's now hoping Johnson doesn't get 5% of the vote

That said he preemptively covered his butt by saying trump is such an atypical candidate he could break the model

If Johnson does break 5%, then the model could be tweaked in several ways, e.g., by redefining the incumbent charisma key so that Hillary gets it either if she has charisma or, in this case, if trump has negative charisma.

Of course, this election cycle exposed done weaknesses in the model. Trump aside, the third-party key requires its own prediction as it's technically not known until the votes are counted.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sat Oct 22, 2016, 08:25 PM

LenaBaby61 (6,386 posts)

4. Usually Alan Licthman is ....

Pretty solid with all things political. But, when he sort of doubled-down on tRump still having a chance as of October 5th, I just sort of uh:

I know much work still has to be done in these last 16 days. Democrats HAVE, HAVE, HAVE to still get out there and VOTE. There is NO room for complacency. However, and as of October 22nd 2017, things look pretty solid for a Hillary/Tim win on November 8th.

Not sure what Licthman's thinking as of tonight, but my guess is that he's thinking of more ways to spin a tRump loss than from a month or so ago

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sat Oct 22, 2016, 08:27 PM

Gabi Hayes (28,795 posts)

5. that he's finally been exposed for the extremely fortunate con artist he's always been?

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