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RandySF

(57,619 posts)
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 03:32 PM Oct 2016

Expect Hillary to regain ground this week.

Last week I was planning to write that Trump would close in on Hillary as people take one last look. Then Comey decided to ambush her and I hid under the bed for a couple days. In the meantime, Kellyanne Conway made sense for once telling CNN that her boss was closing independent of the story. Now, patterns stay true to fiorm, Hillary will resume a 5-6 point lead by the end of the wee

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Expect Hillary to regain ground this week. (Original Post) RandySF Oct 2016 OP
Can I ask you what you're basing your information on? Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #1
Post removed Post removed Oct 2016 #2
Yes considering that 538 still has Hillary's chances of winning at 75% TrekLuver Oct 2016 #3
but I don't like the downward trend since Oct. 17th AllTooEasy Oct 2016 #5
It will bounce back up...just you wait and see !! TrekLuver Oct 2016 #6
take your negativity elsewhere or better yet volunteer book_worm Oct 2016 #8
Lol jcgoldie Oct 2016 #4
LOL?! WTF?! Well, what do you call these numbers? AllTooEasy Oct 2016 #7
Why don't you get off your ass instead of posting this negative crap. book_worm Oct 2016 #9
I hope so democrattotheend Oct 2016 #10
Very possible Awsi Dooger Oct 2016 #11

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)
1. Can I ask you what you're basing your information on?
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 03:33 PM
Oct 2016

I mean I'm hoping to heck she resumes more of a lead and the Comey story goes away and a Trump bomb comes out...

Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #1)

AllTooEasy

(1,260 posts)
5. but I don't like the downward trend since Oct. 17th
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:16 PM
Oct 2016

The key word in your post is "still". The election isn't today, and the trend it downward.

You can't put your head in the sand regarding that. I want folks to rise to action, not relax.

 

TrekLuver

(2,573 posts)
6. It will bounce back up...just you wait and see !!
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:30 PM
Oct 2016

My head isn't in the sand but I refuse to panic unless there is good cause to do so. Considering that this email "scandal" in now taking on a different tone and that Clinton is a victim I'm very happy about how the next week will pan out.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
8. take your negativity elsewhere or better yet volunteer
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:35 PM
Oct 2016

instead of trying to bring people who come here down.

AllTooEasy

(1,260 posts)
7. LOL?! WTF?! Well, what do you call these numbers?
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:35 PM
Oct 2016

From 538 over the last two weeks(since Oct. 17th):

Hillary's chance of winning the general election: from 89% to %75; -14

NV: %78 to %60; -18

NC: %72 to 60; -12; add this state's notorious voting suppression reputation and the race is probably tighter

Fl: %77 - %54: -23; add this state's notorious voting suppression reputation and the race is probably tighter

AZ: %58 to %42: -16 from a win to a loss

IA: %63 to %43; -20 from a win to a loss

OH: %66 - %45: -21 from a win to a loss

Keep in mind that 538 successfully predicted all 50 states on election day. This NOSE DIVING trend toward election day is not laughable. I'm not trying to discourage anyone. I'm trying to motivate fellow Dems, especially in the Clinton campaign, to get off their ass!

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
10. I hope so
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:36 PM
Oct 2016

It may get worse before it gets better, especially since state polls tend to lag a bit.

But I am ok with the polls being close on election day. It will cause me more anxiety, but it will also put some fear of g-d into soft Hillary supporters who thought they had the luxury of staying home or "voting their conscience".

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
11. Very possible
Mon Oct 31, 2016, 05:39 PM
Oct 2016

I believe in that type of thing, a bounce followed by logical partial reversion.

It depends on independents. Some polling indicates they were already moving toward Trump, and the NBC poll said that 68% of independents thought the email issue had importance.

As I posted a few days ago, I think the polling released on the weekend will be key, since those surveys will take place in the middle of this week, after the Comey stuff has a few days to be digested.

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