2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumExpect Hillary to regain ground this week.
Last week I was planning to write that Trump would close in on Hillary as people take one last look. Then Comey decided to ambush her and I hid under the bed for a couple days. In the meantime, Kellyanne Conway made sense for once telling CNN that her boss was closing independent of the story. Now, patterns stay true to fiorm, Hillary will resume a 5-6 point lead by the end of the wee
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)I mean I'm hoping to heck she resumes more of a lead and the Comey story goes away and a Trump bomb comes out...
Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #1)
Post removed
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)AllTooEasy
(1,260 posts)The key word in your post is "still". The election isn't today, and the trend it downward.
You can't put your head in the sand regarding that. I want folks to rise to action, not relax.
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)My head isn't in the sand but I refuse to panic unless there is good cause to do so. Considering that this email "scandal" in now taking on a different tone and that Clinton is a victim I'm very happy about how the next week will pan out.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)instead of trying to bring people who come here down.
"Nosediving" FFS.
AllTooEasy
(1,260 posts)From 538 over the last two weeks(since Oct. 17th):
Hillary's chance of winning the general election: from 89% to %75; -14
NV: %78 to %60; -18
NC: %72 to 60; -12; add this state's notorious voting suppression reputation and the race is probably tighter
Fl: %77 - %54: -23; add this state's notorious voting suppression reputation and the race is probably tighter
AZ: %58 to %42: -16 from a win to a loss
IA: %63 to %43; -20 from a win to a loss
OH: %66 - %45: -21 from a win to a loss
Keep in mind that 538 successfully predicted all 50 states on election day. This NOSE DIVING trend toward election day is not laughable. I'm not trying to discourage anyone. I'm trying to motivate fellow Dems, especially in the Clinton campaign, to get off their ass!
book_worm
(15,951 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)It may get worse before it gets better, especially since state polls tend to lag a bit.
But I am ok with the polls being close on election day. It will cause me more anxiety, but it will also put some fear of g-d into soft Hillary supporters who thought they had the luxury of staying home or "voting their conscience".
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I believe in that type of thing, a bounce followed by logical partial reversion.
It depends on independents. Some polling indicates they were already moving toward Trump, and the NBC poll said that 68% of independents thought the email issue had importance.
As I posted a few days ago, I think the polling released on the weekend will be key, since those surveys will take place in the middle of this week, after the Comey stuff has a few days to be digested.