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Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:02 AM

Warmed up Turkey, Clinton Must be + 6-7 Points Nationally

Warmed up Turkey, Clinton Must be + 6-7 Points Nationally.

A couple of years ago I received a sobering message from my doctor, the stubborn increase in my blood pressure was aggravating my well controlled diabetes and the unpredictable Meniere's that had became my constant partner with "railroad in my brain" or more often called “ringing in the ears”. A drastic reduction in stress was ordered immediately and I was unable to get rid of the idiot who was dating my daughter immediately so I would have to step away from DU. I have a certain obsession with seeing misstated facts and when I saw one famous poster purposely misstate facts about Afghanistan so that he could promote his income producing blog I was unable to sleep that night and triggered a Meniere’s vertigo attack.

Attempts to be a moderate self controlled DU member failed. I also knew that Secretary Clinton was going to be the nominee and that there was going to be a lot of attacks on her because even in the best of times the Clintons can complicate the record even when they are doing a good job, and even when they are doing a miracle, and I have personally seen Sec. Clinton work a political miracle

So I went frozen turkey on DU. My health improved. Like George Costanza, I invented the “its not you, its me”. It wasn’t DU it was me, I couldn’t disengage rationally or moderate. Six months ago I started “lurking” and noticed that all of the people who were driving me crazy had left DU and there was talk of yet another anti DU site. I took the turkey out of the freezer. Its been defrosting and now I will try a little warmed up Turkey by posting a single post a day if I think of something that might be useful. To the many friends who I left here without a word, I apologize. It wasn’t you, it was me. Of course it really was those idiots who took every opportunity to tear down the most decent family to enter into public life in my lifetime or live in the White house ever. (People who say “its not you, its me” of course never actually mean that its “me”).

SECRETARY OF STATE CLINTON IS CLEARLY AT + 6 NATIONALLY.

I noticed that there is more nervousness at DU than is consistent with the known facts in the polls. Clearly Secretary Clinton is at or above + 6 nationally. There really cannot be any rational argument with this even if all of the national polls show that she is even, plus 2 or whatever.

Look at all of the state polls. It is simply not possible for Sec. Clinton to be

CA +23
NY +20
WA, IL, MA, NJ + 13
FL/NC Even
TX, AZ, GA – 4

and only +2 nationally. Either all of the hundreds of state polls are way off or a few of the national polls are a little bit off.

This thing has been baked since the 3rd debate and then put into petrified wood with Access Hollywood clip. Across the country there are exactly 156 people who are really undecided. Gallup tried to find out what psychological condition might exist that was common among these 156 people but suspended their testing when administering the “over or under” test which asked participants to replace a new roll of toilet paper. People who are still undecided at this point were found to take over an hour and a half to try and figure out if they should have the toilet paper going over the spindle or under.

NO BIG CONSPIRACY, JUST A LITTLE REPUBLICAN CRAPOLA

The so called tightening is usually an error of predicting turnouts based on past elections. While AA turnout is slightly down, the combined AA and Hispanic vote is up, but most national polls don’t account for that.

The poll showing 28% of Republicans voting Democrat in Florida was a small sample and probably exaggerated, but not by much. In any case the key metric is not how many Republicans vote Democratic but the disparity between the two. Usually it is a wash with 90% of each party voting the ticket that they are registered for. If however it is 85% Republican (a pretty safe figure) and 95% Democratic (equally safe) voters then that alone would account for a 3-4% under value in the polls. Trump cannot win the popular vote with that disparity.

Based on all of the above and the fact that there are no undecided voters in the actual election it is logical to conclude that today Clinton is around 53% to Trump 45% and it is unlikely to change much. There is one more point that confirms this: Trump has a hard ceiling around 43% with undecideds, (45% with). Steve Kornacki mentioned yesterday that in looking at almost 40 different polls Trump only went over 45 once.

Having said that we are probably ahead by 7% we are in a good position but we could definitely lose the Electoral College. That is simply because a lot of that 7% vote is “wasted” by giving us redundant winning votes in states like CA. If we lose both Florida and North Carolina it will become very close because Trump probably is going to take Ohio, in part due to the terrible performance of Ted Strickland.

Then there is this: There are no polls for “registered voters” for North Carolina. Registration and one stop voting continues there until Saturday. A win in either FL or NC seals the results and saves the country form 4 years of constitutional anarchy.

The reference to Republican “crapola” is this; In order to boost funding or turnout the Republicans will finance a whole bunch of one off state polls from right wing pollsters with questionable ethics and dump them at the same time. Four years ago we caught Gravis doing this at a time when Romney had a money raising crises. This year the previously unheard of Remington is dumping dozens of polls in swing states showing remarkable Trump bounce. One off polls like this are worthless because it doesn’t give us a reference point to compare with their earlier work, it is for this reason that these polls are really only for trying to generate Republican turn out in swing states and fodder for the really, really, really concern troll.

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Arrow 36 replies Author Time Post
Reply Warmed up Turkey, Clinton Must be + 6-7 Points Nationally (Original post)
grantcart Nov 2016 OP
femmocrat Nov 2016 #1
livetohike Nov 2016 #2
mcar Nov 2016 #3
NastyWomen Nov 2016 #4
gademocrat7 Nov 2016 #5
Cha Nov 2016 #6
William769 Nov 2016 #7
Cary Nov 2016 #8
TrekLuver Nov 2016 #9
Fast Walker 52 Nov 2016 #10
geek tragedy Nov 2016 #12
ffr Nov 2016 #13
Hortensis Nov 2016 #14
brer cat Nov 2016 #15
bucolic_frolic Nov 2016 #16
FailureToCommunicate Nov 2016 #17
DemonGoddess Nov 2016 #18
4lbs Nov 2016 #19
tallahasseedem Nov 2016 #20
UCmeNdc Nov 2016 #21
calimary Nov 2016 #22
sheshe2 Nov 2016 #23
Lifelong Protester Nov 2016 #24
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2016 #25
JoePhilly Nov 2016 #26
TexasTowelie Nov 2016 #27
Generic Other Nov 2016 #28
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Nov 2016 #29
grantcart Nov 2016 #31
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Nov 2016 #32
grantcart Nov 2016 #35
SunSeeker Nov 2016 #34
treestar Nov 2016 #36
lillypaddle Nov 2016 #37
JustAnotherGen Nov 2016 #38
LineLineReply
Dec 1969 #

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:06 AM

1. Welcome back, grantcart!

It is so good to see you again!

Glad you are feeling better and thanks for posting!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:07 AM

2. Grantcart!!!!!! Good to see you! Missed your analysis

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:11 AM

3. Great analysis!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:11 AM

4. Nice! Nt

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:13 AM

5. Greetings, grantcart!

Glad you are back. Take care.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:23 AM

6. Aloha grant! I did a double take!

Mahalo for your views on our current state of affairs regarding Hillary and her winning Tuesday!

Glad your health is so much better.. So important!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:30 AM

7. Welcome back!

Very good OP.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:44 PM

8. Great news!

You're feeling good, and we're still winning.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:47 PM

9. Thank you!!!

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:52 PM

10. I do think part of the "tightening" is bogus

 

probably a pre-arranged media storyline

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:55 PM

12. welcome back, amigo!

 

I think that there's more confidence in Clinton winning this time than in 2012, but there's a little more anxiety in that (1) the future of our democracy is on the line and (2) unless Trump loses bigger than McCain did, Trumpism will likely be the dominant force on their side of the field for the rest of our lifetime, which is terrifying.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:04 PM

13. Good analysis! I just reported actual Nevada EV numbers, Dems are doing pretty well

#NVGOTV in Nevada (NV) 12TH day. Dems lead by > 35,000 EV, 43% to 37%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512577821

Professional analysis of 2016 v 2012 numbers 11/03/16 - Jon Ralston
...But raw votes are raw votes. And that 55,500 firewall means a lot, indicating Trump will be down double digits when those first numbers pop up on Tuesday evening. Joe Heck also can't like to see these numbers, especially since everything I have heard indicates he is being crushed in the early vote.

Keep an eye on those rural numbers. The raw vote lead for the GOP there is now above 22,000, and probably will be closer to 23,000 once Elko and the six others post.

Clark turnout down, Washoe and rurals up is not the formula the Dems had in mind. But registration matters, and if they do close to what they usually do in the last two days (they added about 16,000 voters, which somehow seems unlikely this year, in the last two days of 2012), the blue wave not only will wash over the top of the ticket, but will certainly turn those two House seats blue and maybe both houses of the Legislature, too.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:07 PM

14. Thanks for the analysis. But what about the SENATE?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:32 PM

15. Good to see you are back, grantcart!

Great analysis. K&R

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:33 PM

16. Smart

an interpretation of polls to remember ............Thanks!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:33 PM

17. Welcome back! But between the polls, the World Series and the Election Day this seems like a

very stressful week...so, take it easy. Savor your decaf, or chamomile, enjoy the autumn colors...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:37 PM

18. K&R!

Glad you're back! Nice post!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 01:50 PM

19. These latest polls of likely voters that show "tightening" also have one crucial detail missing.

They poll only likely voters THAT HAVE NOT YET VOTED.

So, the nearly 30 million that have already voted, they aren't counted in these polls.

Thus, with Hillary way ahead in the early vote, the remaining voters are closer and more evenly split.

This is par for the course. Obama had a huge lead in 2008 and 2012 with the early vote. Actual election day results were evenly split, or even had the Republican with a slight advantage.

However, by winning the early vote by such a huge margin, that carried the election in each case, because Obama had a 10 point lead in the early vote in 2008, and a 7 point lead in 2012.

Obama ended up winning 2008 by about 7 points, and 2012 by about 5 points. So, his Republican challengers either matched him on Election Day or even beat him slightly.

It was the EARLY VOTING that made the difference.

These latest polls don't take into account the early voters, because to them there is no point in polling a person who already voted.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 02:00 PM

20. Holy crap, welcome back!

Thank you for the post!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 02:08 PM

21. Great Information!

Thank you!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 02:10 PM

22. Welcome back, sweetie!

Glad you're here! I too spent about a year as an ex-pat because it got - uh - a little rough around here. I'm glad to be back, too.

And I GREATLY appreciate your thoughtful analysis.

I'm blessed with naturally low blood pressure. I would very much like to keep it that way. Probably gonna be doing a lot of VERY concentrated crafting from now til Election night. Time to make Christmas presents!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 06:23 PM

23. Great to see you again, grantcart.

Welcome back~

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 06:30 PM

24. Glad you are back!!

I was wondering about you last night, wondering where you were. I understand why you needed to leave, but sure am glad to have you back.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 06:38 PM

25. A post that reminds me why you're one of my favorites!

 

The line about your daughter's boyfriend had me dying, too!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 06:45 PM

26. Nice job!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:38 PM

27. K&R.

Welcome back and it is good that your health issues have improved.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:54 PM

28. Convincing analysis

Why aren't you explaining to CNN?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:58 PM

29. Being up 23 in California doesn't win us the Electoral College

Anymore than Trump being up 20 in Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, etc helps him.

The EC is the only thing I care about right now.

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #29)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 09:10 PM

31. The point of the margins was to show that 538 is being inconsistent


You cannot be up by huge amounts in blue states, just a little behind in the populous red states and square that with only a 2% national lead. Either all of the state reports are way off or a few of the national polls are slightly off.

Nate uses the national polls to adjust the state polls and is either taking a couple of points off every poll for Hillary or adding a few to Trumps.

Finally there is a clear corollary between national popular vote totals and both electoral college and down ticket races. In order for us to take 30 house seats we need about a 12% national popular vote margin. A big margin in CA is important in that we will gain seats, not the least of which is Darrell Issa. Ralston in NV is projecting that we could sweep all Republican seats in NV if current trends hold.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #31)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 09:14 PM

32. The internals tell the true story

We're being fed the scraps of public polling, which doesn't compare to what the campaigns know.

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #32)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:33 AM

35. Campaign internals are much much better than any polling

as they balance polling with nightly volunteer calls.

We can get a read on internals based on advertising placement and campaign appearances.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:26 AM

34. Excellent post. Great to see you posting again!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:23 AM

36. Welcome back!

This time of year in election years is nerve-wracking, with the "concern" and the predictions for "October Surprise" increases so much.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:31 AM

37. Glad you are back

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 11:07 AM

38. Welcome back

And thank you for this post.

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