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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 03:39 PM

Gallup numbers show Romney in SHARP decline. Romney intrade on SC win: massive sell off (9)

From the begining I predicted that Romney will not be the nominee, and that the Republican Party would find these clowns unworthy and start favorite sons and drafts to do it all over at the convention

Gallup's rolling national poll is showing Romney having the same kind of poll collapse that Cain, Gingrich and Perry had. Rember this is a rolling poll averaging five days so it has a momentum to it that is even more significant than a regular daily poll;



PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney is a considerably weaker front-runner among Republican registered voters nationally than he was at the beginning of the week. Romney now leads Newt Gingrich by 30% to 20%, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul tied at 13%. At the beginning of the week, Romney had a 23-percentage-point lead over Gingrich and Santorum.

The latest results, based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted Jan. 15-19, only partially reflect the potential impact of the dramatic events that have roiled the GOP presidential race this week. These include the withdrawal of two candidates (Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry) from the race, a televised interview given by Gingrich's second wife in which she discussed her former husband's extramarital affair, the continued focus on Romney's tax returns, the announcement that Santorum rather than Romney apparently won the Iowa caucuses, and a lively debate in South Carolina Thursday night in which Gingrich lashed out at the news media, and the CNN moderator in particular.

Polls in South Carolina suggest that Gingrich has a good chance of winning that state, and if so, the race could tighten further in the coming days.



Interactive poll here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx



Intrade has a huge Romney sell off and a big buy on Gingrich now at 65% and Romney is at 39%

https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=750749&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=750753&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

Interestingly those behind the grass roots campaign for Cain have now gone 100% in for Gingrich.

http://draftcain.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/south-carolina-grassroots-boots-for-newt/

With Romney melting away and fire bomber Gingrich on the upswing the smart guys in the Republican Party are going to start looking for ways to keep this going and flush all of these clowns for a Republican Governor and start a draft movement.



Links to the other 8 post in the series predicting that Romney will not be the nominee and it will be a brokered convention here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512491

Working hard to become the most insufferable "I told you so" series in DU history and having more fun than should be legal without sex watching Romney make a total ass out of himself.

"I told you so".

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Reply Gallup numbers show Romney in SHARP decline. Romney intrade on SC win: massive sell off (9) (Original post)
grantcart Jan 2012 OP
Old and In the Way Jan 2012 #1
grantcart Jan 2012 #4
Major Hogwash Jan 2012 #2
aquart Jan 2012 #3
morningfog Jan 2012 #5
grantcart Jan 2012 #6
ellisonz Jan 2012 #7
Jim Lane Jan 2012 #8
grantcart Jan 2012 #9
Douglas Carpenter Jan 2012 #10

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Jan 20, 2012, 04:06 PM

1. That chart says it all.

What a disaster this primary season is turning into for the Republican Party. Pretty much mirrors their governing record. "None of the Above" is the odds on favorite to win the nomination.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Jan 20, 2012, 04:26 PM

2. Well, it is the South.

Which state is next??

I see that Santorum is still "in it to win it."

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Jan 20, 2012, 04:53 PM

3. Which of their governors could they run?

Tunnel-canceling Chris Christie? The family man who puts his kids before his oath of office?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Jan 20, 2012, 06:21 PM

5. I'd love to see a brokered convention. I am not are sure it will happen as you are,

 

but I do appreciate your optimism and confidence. I see a long, protracted 3-way race. Mitt and Newt going long, if not all the way with Paul only playing in the non-winner-take-all primaries. Paul, I think, hopes to be a kind of king maker. I think Romney and Gingrich each have large enough egos and enough access to money to make a long primary.

Santorum has exceeded his shelf life, and I think he won't be around much after SC.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #5)

Fri Jan 20, 2012, 07:25 PM

6. Paul will go all the way but for a different reason


Every state he runs in he collects a new set of volunteers and establishes a permanent command structure.

In 4 years his son will be able to start his run for the Presidency with an established organization in all 50 states.

(Don't know how confident I am, just having fun with it. I prefer that one of these jerks gets it, I am more concerned that they go to the convention and start over with more competent candidates.)

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Jan 20, 2012, 07:35 PM

7. I think they'll go with Newt at the end of the day...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:38 PM

8. This is just a little drama on the way to the Romney nomination.

 

You write, "From the begining I predicted that Romney will not be the nominee...."

It was a plausible view then, and it's still a plausible view. Nevertheless, I think the weight of the Establishment will prevail over the party's right wing, as it did in 2008. Romney will be this year's McCain.

I also predict, with less confidence, that he'll get about the same percent of the vote as McCain did.

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Response to Jim Lane (Reply #8)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 01:22 PM

9. Latest polls from PPP showing that people who watched the debate split for Gingrich 2-1 over Romney

and are approaching a double digit margin.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/21/south-carolina-polls-newt-gingrich-lead_n_1220731.html?ref=@pollster

WASHINGTON -- Two new telephone polls concluded on the eve of the South Carolina primary not only confirm continuing momentum toward Newt Gingrich; they suggest that the former House speaker may be headed for a surprisingly comfortable, double-digit win.

A live-interviewer survey conducted by the American Research Group on Thursday and Friday nights finds Gingrich now leading Mitt Romney 40 to 26 percent, followed by Ron Paul (18 percent) and Rick Santorum (13 percent). An ARG poll fielded earlier in the week had Gingrich and Romney in a virtual tie (with 32 and 31 percent, respectively).

That finding compliments final results from the automated survey conducted over three nights by the Democratic Party firm Public Policy Polling, which shows Gingrich leading Romney 37 to 28 percent, followed by Santorum (16 percent) and Paul (14 percent). PPP noted that in the interviews it conducted on Friday evening, Gingrich led by a 40 to 26 percent margin -- exactly the same margin found by the ARG poll.

The HuffPost Pollster chart -- based on all available public polls of South Carolina voters, including the latest from ARG and PPP -- now shows Gingrich leading Romney by a 10-point margin (36.8 to 27.0 percent), followed by Paul and Santorum running far back in third and fourth place (with 15.6 and 13.1 percent, respectively). Support for Gingrich now stands at roughly the same level that polls found when his numbers first surged in late November 2011.



A big Gingrich victory will put you in good company

Nate Silver "What has happened since then, however, has frankly surprised me a great deal."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/20/romneys-prevent-defense-yielding-big-gains-to-opponents/?scp=2&sq=nate%20silver&st=cse

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 01:36 PM

10. intrade now at 90% Newt will take SC - 40% that he will take Florida and 25% that he will be the nom

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