Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf we do not push and push and push Nate Silver will be right and we will lose the senate.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nate-silver-gop-senateNate Silver revealed a new forecast on Sunday via his new venture, FiveThirtyEight.com, projecting that Republicans have about a 60 percent chance of wining at least 6 Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber in November.
When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast way back in July we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.
Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obamas approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
Silver emphasizes that while his model favors the GOP, the number of seats could vary depending on several factors.
So our forecast might be thought of as a Republican gain of six seats plus or minus five. The balance has shifted slightly toward the GOP. But it wouldnt take much for it to revert to the Democrats, nor for this year to develop into a Republican rout along the lines of 2010.
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
5 replies, 11189 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (1)
ReplyReply to this post
5 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
If we do not push and push and push Nate Silver will be right and we will lose the senate. (Original Post)
Maraya1969
Mar 2014
OP
Scuba
(53,475 posts)1. Great. What are we pushing?
frylock
(34,825 posts)2. lesser of two evils..
it's worked so well in the past.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)3. "Same bad policies, less corruption" has a nice ring.
You think that'll work?
frylock
(34,825 posts)5. put it on a bumpersticker..
see if people salute it.
polichick
(37,152 posts)4. We're doing this I guess: