2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Pollsters are trying to convince us that 2 + 2 = 22
Look at all of the individual state polls that are being done and there are no surprises, except that the red states are EVEN closer than previously expected with AZ going to toss up and TX at Romney with only +7.
Blue States on the other hand are looking like landslide states. Some recent examples
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/pollster/
NY Obama +20
MN Obama +14
MA Obama + 21
Other states like WA ME etc all showing big 20 point leads
Now we go to leaning or contested states
NH Obama +/
MI (Romney's birth state) Obama + 5
WI Obama +5
OH Obama +1 (Quinnipac) Obama +7 (PPP)
FL Obama +1
IA Obama +10
VA Obama +7, +8, +2
FL Romney +1, +1
NC Obama +4
And those deep red states
AZ Obama +2
TX Romney +7
And yet the national polls show a tie race. And yet Intrade has Romney stuck in cement at 37 while Obama floats between 57 and 61.
We can get into a long discussion of polling methodology and sampling but lets settle on two things.
All of the state trends show that the Democrats are not going to have to spend a dime to pick up 150 electoral college votes, not a cent.
The Republicans have about 75 electoral votes that are absolutely safe. They have another 45 electoral votes that they probably can afford to ignore but if Romney drops a couple more points in, say Texas, he is going to have to spend money on the reddest of states.
There are alto of red leaning states that are al readying looking bad for the Republicans that they are going to have to fight for and then we have a wide swatch of contested states that the Democrats come to not having to spend a dime while the Republicans will have to get all of them.
The second thing is that general elections are a cash cow for polling companies. It is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Their clients, media organizations sell advertising on news shows that can double or triple their rates if it is a contested race and they can increase their viewership. If it is established early on that Romney's chances are not 3 out of 7 but 1 out of 7 then a lot of donor money is going to dry up. That money is not going to go to advertising, It is not going to go to polling.
I don't think that it is a conspiracy as much as an elaborate tweaking so that everyone gets the horse race that will bring in hundreds of millions of advertising dollars.
Here pollster.com is downgrading both Ras and Gallup because of sampling questions
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/08/2012-polls-huffpost-pollster-charts_n_1501328.html?ref=@pollster
Here pollster.com raises questions about who is really answering the phones
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/15/poll-response-rates_n_1518501.html?ref=@pollster
Two plus two cannot be both 4 and 22. You cannot reconcile the multiple state polls that are all going our way and the national polls that show a deadlock.
Now if the pollsters can temporarily establish 22 as a possibility then it will mean a lot more money for them and their clients. If they all agree that 2 plus 2 is 4 its going to wipe out their biggest payday ever. Since the Supreme Court opened the flood gates for all that money the pollsters are going to do their part to make sure the money keeps on flowing. There is plenty of time to discover that it really was 4 all the time.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)of interest.
Yavin4
(35,357 posts)But more money on media which benefits both the consultants and the media companies.
Ex-Pat Pats Fan
(36 posts)Pollsters can serve a useful purpose to a campaign. Public pollsters are leeches.
By the way, the rebel base was on Yavin 3. You know that, right?
Yavin4
(35,357 posts)brooklynite
(93,880 posts)With the possible exception of Rasmussen, every poll has shown Obama ahead, and -occasionally- Romney ahead nationally, in a race every political expert says will be close. If you have evidence of actual BIAS, please lay it out.
DCKit
(18,541 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)Great job grantcart! Also, thank you...these recent polls were starting to freak me out!
qb
(5,924 posts)None of the networks is a trustworthy news source any more. They all serve their shareholders and/or political allies.
former9thward
(31,806 posts)People never get tired of them. For pollsters to change numbers from what they actually get would involve a conspiracy of hundreds. And yet no one ever reports this? Ok if you believe that, fine. As far as the money they make in a tight race that is a non starter. The campaigns do not rely on public polls. They hire their own pollsters. So now you are saying the Obama campaign is changing the numbers so they will spend more on ads. They are the ones that "keep the money flowing" not the media so apparently they are "tweaking the numbers" to spend that money.
Yavin4
(35,357 posts)Texas is a huge, expensive state which will suck up Romney's money in a hurry.