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Fri Dec 4, 2015, 12:32 PM

 

Ipsos/Reuters polling with Independents included shows Bernie within 8 points of the lead

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1|3/dates/20150808-20160125/type/smallest

Hillary 43.6
Bernie 35.5
Martin 4.5
Undecided 16.4

Obviously this poll tends to swing, but this is the closest it's been for some time.

7 replies, 954 views

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Reply Ipsos/Reuters polling with Independents included shows Bernie within 8 points of the lead (Original post)
HerbChestnut Dec 2015 OP
upaloopa Dec 2015 #1
HerbChestnut Dec 2015 #2
NurseJackie Dec 2015 #4
upaloopa Dec 2015 #5
HerbChestnut Dec 2015 #6
NurseJackie Dec 2015 #7
olddots Dec 2015 #3

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 12:42 PM

1. I see Hillary 54.5 Bernie 31.2

That's 23.3 points difference

Close to the other polls earlier in the week

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 01:01 PM

2. Must be looking at something different.

 

I just noticed that the link I posted for some reason didn't highlight all the way. You'll have to copy and paste it to see the right graph.

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 01:44 PM

4. I like the polls with adjustable filters. If you eliminate all the Hillary supporters, Bernie wins!!

But when you use the weights and filters of just Democrats, or only Likely Democratic Primary Voters, a different story emerges.

The loyal, enthusiastic and dedicated Bernie fans are looking for SOME signs of hope ... a glimmer at the end of the tunnel that maybe he'll be able to pull this thing off ... but from the looks of things, he's not going to be able to do it.

Hillary will be the nominee, and Bernie will return to the senate. It's where he belongs, and where he'll be able to do his best work ... it's good to have him there as the "conscience" of the senate and to continue giving his impassioned speeches.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 02:17 PM

5. Together I think all of us are creating a really

great narrative of this primary

I am glad to be a part if it

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 02:25 PM

6. Except

 

Using the filters I did includes over 80% of the people in the poll. Just Democrats or Likely Democratic Primary Voters include significantly less. So I didn't "eliminate" the Hillary supporters at all. I included *more* people. Funny how that works.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 02:35 PM

7. Herb ... it was a joke, I was kidding! :-) (I actually don't think that such a thing is possible.)

Here's the point ... anyone can tweak and weight the poll numbers until they find something that they like or that's particularly favorable.

At this stage, the most meaningful metric has to do with the likely Democratic primary voters ... not just "all Democrats" ... but the ones who'll actually be doing the picking.

From my perspective, no matter how you slice it, things aren't looking too peachy for Bernie.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 01:23 PM

3. maybe the undecided should be called

 

the "I don't want to be bothered " its a form of agressive pacivity for attention .

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