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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Tue May 7, 2019, 02:07 AM

 

CNN Poll Showing Biden In The Lead Sampled Statistically Insignificant Number Of Voters Under 50

Cenk Uygur, John Iadarola, and Maytha Alhassen, hosts of "The Young Turks," discuss a CNN poll conducted by research organization SSRS that showed Joe Biden with a resounding lead against Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primary. However, it turns out that the poll had too few respondents in both the 18-34 and 35-49 age cohorts to be deemed statistically significant, and therefore polled mostly voters over 50.

Just days after announcing his candidacy, Joe Biden apparently got a big bump in the polls -- or did he? Because the headlines all seem pretty clear that he shot up, but when you look closer it's not as clear as the headlines make it seem.

On Tuesday there was a CNN poll showing Biden at 39, Sanders at 15, and Warren at 8. That is not only a big lead for Biden over Sanders, it is also a big jump for Biden, who had generally been in the high 20s, occasionally 30-31.

That's a big jump, but I want to show you the actual demographic breakdown in the poll. The text is very small and there's a lot of stuff there, but what you will notice immediately is there's a lot of N/As. And the N/As are in the category of people between the ages of 18-34 and 35-49. Now, a lot of people noticed that. That does not mean that they didn't have any respondents in those ages, they did. It just means that there weren't enough of them to consider it to be a representative sample for opinions held by those people, there just weren't enough of them. Overall it means that the results are going to be a good bit biased because what you are really polling is not people, it is the oldest age groups in America.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/05/05/tyts_john_iadarola_cnn_poll_showing_biden_in_the_lead_sample_statistically_insignificant_number_of_voters_under_50.html

I had no idea this was true. Makes me want to take a closer look at all the polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply CNN Poll Showing Biden In The Lead Sampled Statistically Insignificant Number Of Voters Under 50 (Original post)
uawchild May 2019 OP
NanceGreggs May 2019 #1
BannonsLiver May 2019 #2
still_one May 2019 #4
NurseJackie May 2019 #16
still_one May 2019 #19
NYMinute May 2019 #28
KitSileya May 2019 #34
True Blue American May 2019 #5
MrsCoffee May 2019 #23
elleng May 2019 #3
NurseJackie May 2019 #17
MrsCoffee May 2019 #22
NurseJackie May 2019 #25
qazplm135 May 2019 #30
elleng May 2019 #32
elleng May 2019 #33
Cha May 2019 #36
InAbLuEsTaTe May 2019 #6
MrsCoffee May 2019 #21
NYMinute May 2019 #29
watoos May 2019 #7
TwilightZone May 2019 #14
Hortensis May 2019 #8
lapucelle May 2019 #9
ucrdem May 2019 #10
NYMinute May 2019 #11
dsc May 2019 #12
NYMinute May 2019 #27
TwilightZone May 2019 #13
WeekiWater May 2019 #15
R B Garr May 2019 #18
NYMinute May 2019 #26
Cha May 2019 #37
highplainsdem May 2019 #45
MrsCoffee May 2019 #20
dalton99a May 2019 #24
R B Garr May 2019 #35
Kahuna7 May 2019 #31
Cha May 2019 #38
Gothmog May 2019 #39
highplainsdem May 2019 #40
Gothmog May 2019 #41
Cha May 2019 #42
Gothmog May 2019 #43
Cha May 2019 #44

Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 02:15 AM

1. You lost me at ...

 

... Cenk Uygur.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NanceGreggs (Reply #1)

Tue May 7, 2019, 02:23 AM

2. It's basically an attempt at "unskewing" the poll.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to NanceGreggs (Reply #1)

Tue May 7, 2019, 02:44 AM

4. Yup, you noticed that to. Gee, perhaps the OP thinks that Biden will drop out of the race because

 

Uygur thinks so. Maybe we can get a quote from Glenn Greenwald while we are at it.

This is just pure flamebait
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #4)

Tue May 7, 2019, 08:50 AM

16. Has HA Goodman checked in on this?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #16)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:11 AM

19. +++++++++++++

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #16)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:37 AM

28. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #16)

Tue May 7, 2019, 12:14 PM

34. Or Walter Bragman?

 

He of the "A Liberal Case for Trump" infamy?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NanceGreggs (Reply #1)

Tue May 7, 2019, 04:35 AM

5. Same here!

 

Cenk will do anything to appear relevant.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NanceGreggs (Reply #1)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:24 AM

23. +1

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 02:37 AM

3. Too early to poll anyway.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to elleng (Reply #3)

Tue May 7, 2019, 08:53 AM

17. How so? Who says? Why is it "too early" to poll?

 

How so? Who says? Why is it "too early" to poll?

Personally, I believe that ANY time is the perfect time to poll if someone wants to take a snapshot of how things are at that moment, and whether someone's campaign is surging... or whether someone else's campaign is cratering.

What's wrong with that? How does that hurt anyone?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #17)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:23 AM

22. Because Bernie isn't in front.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MrsCoffee (Reply #22)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:26 AM

25. I believe you've nailed it. That's what I was thinking too.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MrsCoffee (Reply #22)

Tue May 7, 2019, 10:05 AM

30. eh, it is pretty early for polling

 

you get a general sense of who has strength and who doesn't...but if we believed polling this far out, Clinton beats Obama fairly handily in 2008 and Jeb Bush is the republican nominee in 2016.

Lotta time for stuff to happen.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #30)

Tue May 7, 2019, 10:41 AM

32. Thanks for the practical response, qazplm135.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to MrsCoffee (Reply #22)

Tue May 7, 2019, 10:41 AM

33. Baloney

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to elleng (Reply #3)

Tue May 7, 2019, 03:08 PM

36. I don't think so.

 

We can see where the candidates are now. And, of course it will change.. telling us how far they've come or not.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 05:00 AM

6. Hmmmmmm... interesting!!!

 


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #6)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:23 AM

21. Roflmfao.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MrsCoffee (Reply #21)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:38 AM

29. You need a gif to go with that nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 05:05 AM

7. I ignore all polls whether good or bad,

 

they are flat out propaganda.

No way Trump's favorability went up to 46%. I laughed my ass off at that poll.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to watoos (Reply #7)

Tue May 7, 2019, 08:20 AM

14. 46% is within the MOE of several other polls.

 

It's also within the MOE of his long-term average.

He's also at 46% in three other polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

"they are flat out propaganda"

No, they're not. Some have inherent biases, but polls like Quinnipiac have a proven record of reliability. They have him at 41%, which is about his long-term average. None of the results are really a surprise, since they're all within a few points of his long-term average.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 05:14 AM

8. You STILL have "no idea this is true." I couldn't find any analysis

 

Last edited Tue May 7, 2019, 05:49 AM - Edit history (1)

that critiqued this poll. I wish I had. But what you posted is just a statement from a partisan group published without analysis or comment by RCP.

The Hill points out that one reason for the high 39% number on that poll is in part due to Biden's currently strong, 50%, support by nonwhites. Biden polled 29% among white Democrats, and presumably all of that 29% will actually vote for a Democrat in both the primary and GE, unlike that gathered to Sanders in his 14%.

Btw, that last? Poll analyses should identify the character and quality of support. Biden's black support is believed sincere but fluid as candidates like Booker and Harris gain in appeal. Otoh, much of Sanders' 14% is believed ultracommitted to him alone, but what actual percentage? I.e., how much of it would shift to Democratic candidates as his candidacy failed?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 05:46 AM

9. Cenk Uygur and Tim Hains...

 



Donuts for everyone!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 06:56 AM

10. Cenk has a certificate

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 07:21 AM

11. Cenk Uygur?

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 08:02 AM

12. I didn't watch the entire video

 

but I think I get the gist of their argument. I teach math for a living and have taught AP stats (though admittedly not in about a decade). There are two issues they are bringing up. One is that there aren't enough young people polled relative to the percent they are of the voting population (they polled only septegenarions) and two is that the young people they polled are too small a sample to be representative. To evaluate the first we would need to know the relative numbers who vote and how many were polled. Clearly they polled fewer young people but we don't know how many fewer they polled nor do we know how many fewer of them vote. The reason they put the N/A in those columns is that they couldn't find small enough confidence intervals given the size of those samples. That doesn't mean that the number of people in that sample wasn't the proper number given the percent who vote.

As to the representativeness of the sample, they might have a point or they might not. We do know that the confidence interval would have been large (though not how large) and that due to that they didn't produce one nor list percentages. That is all we know. It should be noted though that provided the percent of young people in the sample was correct as to the percent of the voting population, then even if this were an unrepresentative sample it wouldn't have had a huge effect (since it was small). In short, the first issue is the bigger problem and they do nothing at all to tell us if it exists or doesn't.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to dsc (Reply #12)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:36 AM

27. Very good post

 

I may add that modern software like PASS17 strives to make a sample valid by eliminating both type 1 and type 2 errors. If the sample is not representative a warning appears that the MOE is higher than +-5% and which means the observations will be beyond mean +/- 2 standard deviations.

The second point is - who cares? The poll's findings have been replicated by TWO other polls and that is statistically better.

Cenk is panicking. The polls have been devastating for some candidates' supporters, particularly one who was expecting to waltz into the nomination.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 08:14 AM

13. There are four other polls showing him with similar leads.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Uygur, et al, are in denial.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 08:23 AM

15. Cenk is a deceptive right winger with a very sordid history of ratfucking and sexism.

 

He uses the Fox news approach when deceiving his audience.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to WeekiWater (Reply #15)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:10 AM

18. Bingo!

 

Cenk is a RWer, funded by a Republican. Went from a piggish GOPer to a new-found “progressive” dedicated to bashing leading Democrats for money. Hmmm.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to WeekiWater (Reply #15)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:29 AM

26. But... but... he is consoling and soothing to some ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to WeekiWater (Reply #15)

Tue May 7, 2019, 03:09 PM

37. I guess the OP didn't

 

know.. Thank You!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to WeekiWater (Reply #15)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:38 PM

45. And lately he's praising Tucker Carlson:

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212099667
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:22 AM

20. Screw Cenk and the Russians he rode in on.

 

ShitStirrers (being nice here) Incorporated. All they do is spew propaganda.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MrsCoffee (Reply #20)

Tue May 7, 2019, 09:26 AM

24. +1

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MrsCoffee (Reply #20)

Tue May 7, 2019, 12:16 PM

35. Exactly! So perfectly stated!

 





If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue May 7, 2019, 10:07 AM

31. Three polls came out that same day..All were trending largely in Biden's favor...

 

They pick out the one poll that didn't show a breakdown by age. The Quinnipiac poll included under 50 breakdown but they don't want to talk about that because it showed Biden ahead with that group. Most recent polls are showing Biden ahead with younger voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Kahuna7 (Reply #31)

Tue May 7, 2019, 03:10 PM

38. But Cenk drones on.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Mon May 13, 2019, 11:53 PM

39. From Nate Silver

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #39)

Tue May 14, 2019, 12:05 AM

40. Thanks, Gothmog! I like Nate's description of their nonsense: "their full-of-shit unskewing."

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #40)

Tue May 14, 2019, 01:25 AM

41. I trust Nate on polling issues

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #39)

Tue May 14, 2019, 01:28 AM

42. Hey! Nate Silver.. "To start with the basics, The Young Turks are full of shit about this,"

 



Thank You, Goth!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #42)

Tue May 14, 2019, 01:36 AM

43. Again I trust Nate on polling issues

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #43)

Tue May 14, 2019, 01:41 AM

44. I like his

 

way with words! lol
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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