Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThe polls are clear... we have no clue what is happening except for one thing...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-supporters-used-to-say-sanders-was-their-second-choice-now-they-say-warren/
When looking at the polls in this article, the differences are so great it's clear we don't have a clue what's happening except that old people prefer Biden.
Morning Consult has consistently run Biden-biased so it's no surprise that Fox does too. It's that age old problem - old people have land lines and answer them, anyone under 60(?) knows better than to answer a phone number they don't recognize.
YouGov has an interesting model if they can filter out noise. We will see ....
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
regnaD kciN
(26,035 posts)And, while I do have a land line (in order to get a discount rate on DSL service), everyone I know has my cell number, so I never answer the land line, since the only people who call it are telemarketers.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
frazzled
(18,402 posts)This whole analysis seems to be a paranoid, agist form of wishful thinking. You know, if only young (white) people could vote, things would be different.
I'm over sixty, and not a Biden supporter (truth be told, not a supporter of anyone at this point). And I've never responded to national polls during a primary. Let's just admit that the era of predictive polling is pretty much over (it's a mess), at least for the time being. But to focus on age alone (as opposed to race, economic status, and other factors) is just myopic. The din of the Internet and social media has led people, and especially journalists, to believe that popularity in cyberspace is somehow the measure of popularity in the real world. That is sooooo not true (as they themselves have sometimes reported, but apparently forgotten). If we look at the last few election cycles, the darlings of the Internet have rarely succeeded in winning an election. Why is that? Because the people who are active in politics on social media are not coterminous with the field of actual voters, the majority of whom do not read or participate in political activity online.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,731 posts)older voters?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
That seems pretty obvious.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan imagewhile in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin.
More at the link... if you want
https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for house effectsthe tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods. In the past, surveys conducted over the phone with a live interviewer or with online survey-takers that use well-thought-out methodologies have been more reliable than other methods.
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
RCP just does a simplistic unweighted average of the last 5 or so polls,hence it's chart jumps around a lot.
Some people fee that the Economist's model may be smoothing too much, but it certainly doesn't swing 6 % points if two strong polls come in the same day for a candidate.
Thanks for the info on RCP's other right-wing social media.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)His support is heavily concentrated amongst voters 18-34 ... His support amongst voters over 60 is around just 5%
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)The less they like him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,211 posts)any poll that's good for Biden characterized as "biased"?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)Or current campaign strategies encourage participation from older voters, to the neglect of younger demographics. Whatever gives you the warm-and-fuzzies, I guess.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)once again, in addition to belittling Biden supporters, positive Biden polls are scoffed at.
That Biden is still more than holding his own, given media bias against him and the full brunt of the Trump machine, demonstrates Bidens durability. Not one internet-based news source that democrats pay attention to supports Biden while readers tend to virulently oppose him.
But Joe prevails. He endures. He and old people arent going anywhere soon.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HelpImSurrounded
(441 posts)And 'biased' in this case merely means 'demonstrates a preference for'. If the polling sample is naturally excludes a portion of the populace, however unintentional, it is biased.
Usually we see "Among democrats" or "registered voters" or "likely voters", I think they need a new category "willing to answer an unrecognized phone number." I see more and more people every day with a growing sense of phonephobia.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)Warren and Biden are front runners and no one else is currently on the move.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,836 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Alliepoo
(2,196 posts)Funny that my daughter and her friends are in their mid 30s and are big Biden supporters. Im certain they are far from alone in their age groups support of handsome Joe. Also-the hubs and I have a landline (bundled service) We are considered old by some and we certainly dont answer unknown calls. Im growing weary of these 538 pearls of wisdom.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
abqtommy
(14,118 posts)is not correct. I'm old and I have a land line but I use my Caller ID feature to screen calls and I won't answer any number I don't recognize.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,163 posts)Most online surveys are fielded from pools of people who self-identify as people who enjoy taking surveys.
Not all, of course. But the majority are certainly administered in this way.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden