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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

highplainsdem

(48,727 posts)
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 03:34 PM Nov 2019

Warren supporter Paul Krugman: Warren's MFA plan is "serious" but probably won't happen

He's giving her an A for effort. Basically saying that it's a good academic effort at a plan, even if she's probably underestimating costs and overestimating revenue, but she isn't going to get it passed anyway.

FWIW, Krugman, like most realists, is in favor of the public option.

But he likes Warren enough to give her kudos for trying hard to come up with a plan.


Twitter thread:





His opinion piece for the NYT, after he saw all the details of the plan:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/opinion/did-warren-pass-the-medicare-test-i-think-so.html


Last week I worried that Elizabeth Warren had painted herself into a corner by endorsing the Sanders Medicare-for-all plan. It was becoming obvious that she couldn’t stay vague about the details, especially how to pay for it; and some studies, even by center-left think tanks, suggested that any plan along these lines would require large tax hikes on the middle class. So what would she come up with?

Well, the Warren plan is now out. And I’d say that she passed the test. Experts will argue for months whether she’s being too optimistic — whether her cost estimates are too low and her revenue estimates too high, whether we can really do this without middle-class tax hikes. You might say that time will tell, but it probably won’t: Even if Warren becomes president, and Dems take the Senate too, it’s very unlikely that Medicare for all will happen any time soon.

-snip-

Am I enthusiastically endorsing this plan? No. I still think that a public-option-type plan, which lets people buy into Medicare, would have a better chance of actually becoming reality — and may well be where a President Warren actually ends up if she gets to the White House. And the plan’s optimism on costs and revenues could be wrong.

-snip-

So what has Warren achieved here? Realistically, her health care plan is more aspirational than her other plans. Enhanced financial regulation and universal child care are things she might well be able to accomplish if she not only wins, but wins big, next year. Medicare for All, not so much. And may I say, it would serve the public well if these topics — plus climate change! — got more attention in future debates, and health care a bit less.

Warren’s task was, instead, to counter criticism that she was being evasive on a big issue. I think she has met that challenge.




I often agree with Krugman.

But I think he's being too generous in this column which essentially is patting Warren on the head for doing homework.

I think she needed to do more than just counter criticism that she'd been evasive.

This isn't a term paper she's being graded on.

Krugman, as much a fan of Warren as he is, admits here that her MFA plan won't become reality.

And she's running on policy proposals that voters will be judging by whether they're at all realistic, not by Warren's ability to write plans that sound good until you wonder if the numbers actually make sense, or if they have any chance of getting through Congress.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Warren supporter Paul Krugman: Warren's MFA plan is "serious" but probably won't happen (Original Post) highplainsdem Nov 2019 OP
Well... there you have it from the horses mouth!! Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #1
According to the newly release financial plan, part of M4A would be by cracking down on.... George II Nov 2019 #2
Warren's plan does not add up ritapria Nov 2019 #3
Agree...and I think you candidate of choice is being much more open about cost and taxes Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #5
So proposing to crack down on tax evasion, fraud, etc is a bad thing? progressoid Nov 2019 #6
"Warren supporter"? dpibel Nov 2019 #4
Krugman tweet, July 30: I've been a huge fan of her plans so far. highplainsdem Nov 2019 #7
So she's not making it up? BeyondGeography Nov 2019 #8
No. Blue_true Nov 2019 #9
I agree with that BeyondGeography Nov 2019 #11
'This is going to cause down-ballot damage': Gothmog Nov 2019 #10
Important considerations! Cha Nov 2019 #13
Excellent article from Paul Krugman.. Cha Nov 2019 #12
I'm kicking this.. Thank you again, Cha Nov 2019 #14
Kick Cha Nov 2019 #15
 

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
1. Well... there you have it from the horses mouth!!
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 03:38 PM
Nov 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
2. According to the newly release financial plan, part of M4A would be by cracking down on....
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 03:41 PM
Nov 2019

...tax evasion and fraud!! Shouldn't that intrinsically be what a President/government should be doing anyway? Also, part of it is being paid for by overhauling the immigration system. If Presidents past haven't been able to accomplish that, how would Warren do so?

These are the types of things that makes one skeptical.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ritapria

(1,812 posts)
3. Warren's plan does not add up
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 03:58 PM
Nov 2019

A serious plan to finance MFA would include an increase in Payroll taxes

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
5. Agree...and I think you candidate of choice is being much more open about cost and taxes
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 04:17 PM
Nov 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

progressoid

(49,825 posts)
6. So proposing to crack down on tax evasion, fraud, etc is a bad thing?
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 04:18 PM
Nov 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

dpibel

(2,803 posts)
4. "Warren supporter"?
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 04:17 PM
Nov 2019

I believe, purposely or inadvertently, you are attributing bias to Krugman.

What is your basis for labeling him a Warren supporter.

I'm not aware that Krugman has endorsed any candidate. And I think it rather unlikely that he will.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

highplainsdem

(48,727 posts)
7. Krugman tweet, July 30: I've been a huge fan of her plans so far.
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 04:51 PM
Nov 2019



I guess I could have called him a "huge Warren fan" but "Warren supporter" seemed a bit less awkward.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
9. No.
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 11:35 PM
Nov 2019

She is not proposing paying for MFA by taxing dancing leprechauns and silver ponies. Does her numbers mesh? Maybe not, but that may not be a major issue for her longterm.

Most Americans know that healthcare costs are out of control, but I don't that emphasis is being put in the right places. Americans, as a people, are very overweight and have a subset of the population that has a fixation with guns (that they solve every stressful problem). It is pretty well accepted that being overweight reduces a person's healthiness and opens the door to a variety of dehabilitating illnesses, fixing those issues cost an enormous amount of money. I read complaints right here on DU about the cost of Insulin, heart MEDs and some blood pressure MEDs, but no one looks at how people got to the point of needing those MEDs. Some causes that brought people to the point of needing the MEDs was genetic (and even those causes are manageable when people make a concerted effort, if a person knows that diabetes runs in the family, being overweight and eating the wrong things is akin to pouring gasoline on a fire), but most of the issues simply are due to people not having the will power to take better care of their health.

Some of the willpower issues are economic, some vegetables are inexpensive, but 1 head of broccoli or 1 tomato can be pricey if the goal is to have a person eat several helpings per week - when a family of four is spending $5 per week on one food item, that just is not going to work. And fresh fruit can be even worse on a family's budget. I often see criticism here on DU about certain farming methods and about canned vegetables and fruit, but maybe the focus should be on is a chemical used in agriculture really harmful in the quantities that a typical person would consume per week. Since canned fruit and vegetables tend to be produce that is nutritious, but physically unattractive to the point where putting it in produce bins would result in it not being sold, or the produce is approaching becoming overripe and gets pulled from markets and sent to canneries. If people are getting the right nutrients from food and are not facing unacceptable side effects, why shouldn't we have a national policy to encourage people to eat those foods, given the benefits to issues like weight control and prevention of some illnesses that don't have excessive weight as a cause?

If we are going to truly reduce healthcare costs in a sustainable way, all of us are going to have to stare our sacred cows in the face and admit that our phobias about some things are wrong, while our analysis on others is right on target. Then as a nation, we need to move toward sensible changes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BeyondGeography

(39,281 posts)
11. I agree with that
Sat Nov 2, 2019, 12:06 AM
Nov 2019

Food, the good fresh stuff, can be relatively expensive in this country. At least compared with France and Germany where I have family and visit a few times a year. They’re slimmer, they have better eating habits (the salty snack/soft drink bingeing-on-the-couch thing is a lot less common there, eg), and they don’t pay nearly as much for produce as I do here in the NYC area. Factor in a much more affordable and accessible health care system and you see how extreme our situation is here. I hope I live long enough to see it change fundamentally.

My post was a bit tongue-in-cheek and alluded to this:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-says-warren-is-making-it-up-on-medicare-for-all-payment

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
10. 'This is going to cause down-ballot damage':
Sat Nov 2, 2019, 12:04 AM
Nov 2019

I and other true Democrats have been working hard to turn Texas blue. We hope to pick up six congressional seats in addition to the two seats we flipped in 2018. We have a chance to defeat Cornyn in the Senate. The Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Texas House and need 9 more to take control of the Texas House prior to the next redistricting session. If Biden is the nominee, Texas will be a battleground state. If Warren or sanders is the nominee. Texas will not be a battle ground state and we can forget about keeping the two seats that we flipped in 2018

Speaker Pelosi is worried about losing control of the House with a weak top of the ballot ticket with a program that will kill down ballot candidates
.




The most-vulnerable Democrat in Colorado’s state House, Bri Buentello, is dreading door-knocking in her rural district now that Elizabeth Warren dropped her massive “Medicare for All” plan into the presidential arena.
“This is going to cause down-ballot damage in swing districts and states if she’s the nominee,” Buentello says, describing how her Pueblo-area constituents — who voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2016 — were already echoing criticisms about a giant, one-size-fits-all big government run plan that cancels private health insurance and raises taxes.
Story Continued Below

The fear of blowback is indicative of the broad and largely negative response to Warren’s proposal from centrist, moderate and rural Democrats — many of whom, like Buentello, back Joe Biden in the primary. And it exposes the fault line between those who fret about winning voters in the center and the activist progressive base propelling Warren to the front of the Democratic pack.

The long-awaited plan to raise the $20.5 trillion she says is needed to pay for single-payer health care in America is Warren’s attempt to answer critics after weeks of questions from rival candidates about the cost of her proposal and the prospect of higher taxes. Warren promised, as she has in the past, that "not one penny in middle-class tax increases” is necessary to finance the effort.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,903 posts)
13. Important considerations!
Sat Nov 2, 2019, 05:45 AM
Nov 2019
Goth! to you and in Texas!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,903 posts)
12. Excellent article from Paul Krugman..
Sat Nov 2, 2019, 05:43 AM
Nov 2019

He lays it well.

Thank you, highplainsdem

Funny someone said .. ".. so she's making it up?.." Why would anyone even go there.. that's not what Krugman said at all.

It seems to me all this pushback on EW's mfa plan has only helped to get more information out.

And, this from Krugman

Am I enthusiastically endorsing this plan? No. I still think that a public-option-type plan, which lets people buy into Medicare, would have a better chance of actually becoming reality — and may well be where a President Warren actually ends up if she gets to the White House. And the plan’s optimism on costs and revenues could be wrong.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,903 posts)
14. I'm kicking this.. Thank you again,
Sun Nov 3, 2019, 04:24 PM
Nov 2019

hpd !

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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