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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 12:29 PM

 

YouGov/The Economist National Poll: Warren 26% (+1), Biden 23% (-3), Sanders 17% (+3)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7umtlf80ov/econTabReport.pdf

All others <10% with Buttigieg at 9%. Continues the trend of Warren flattening off, Biden losing support, and Bernie making gains. Buttigieg will be the wild card depending on whether voters view him as a moderate alternative to Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

15 replies, 889 views

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 12:54 PM

1. where is the poll exactly...I didn't see it.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:06 PM

4. The link I posted bring you to a pdf posted by YouGov/The Economist, which includes the poll.

 

It's on page 173.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 03:48 PM

11. Thank you...wading through 173 pages wow impressive.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 12:56 PM

2. I searched for it...

 

"There are no results for YouGov/The Economist National Poll: Warren 26% (+1), Biden 23% (-3), Sanders 17% (+3)
Check your spelling or try different keywords"

Ref A: 31E55AC6530646949D62D47EBBCE8815 Ref B: CHGEDGE0810 Ref C: 2019-11-13T17:55:24Z

Please provide a link...that website is huge and I didn't see it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:06 PM

3. The totals are on page 173 of 369, question 45

 



(That's actually true.)
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:07 PM

5. Yep, that's just how YouGov/The Economist release their poll results.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:20 PM

6. I see that

 

This link takes you to the same place as yours:

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 04:08 PM

12. Thanks...I wanted to look at it...don't really like You gov and I don't say that because of this

 

poll which is really within the margin of error...but this is a paid site...and those who take these polls make money ...also this is not random...these are pre-screened folks...I am not a fan. But I am always fascinated by these things. They use the same panels over and over or so it seems.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 04:45 PM

14. you repeat the same bollocks on every poll you do not like the results of, with intent to cast doubt

 

Every online poll works off of a large sample, a pre-determined group, and so many (such as the 'beloved by Biden folks' HarrisX) offer a small incentive for replying. YouGov has a sample base of more than 10,000 off which they use highly sophisticated weighting mechanisms to get an accurate sample.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/upshot/online-polls-analyzing-reliability.html

snip

The online samples that fared well raise some concerns about the other online pollsters, if only by implication. YouGov, for instance, consistently fared best in the Pew test in part by using a distinctively sophisticated method of sample selection, called synthetic sampling. YouGov selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans and thus match the country’s demographics as a whole.


snip

Those that did had decent but not exceptional results. On average, online polls had an error of 5.3 percentage points in 2018 — a tally very close to their average error in 2016 and 2017, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.

YouGov, it should be noted, posted an impressive 2.5-point average error in its final 2018 polls; no other online-only firm had an average error beneath five points.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:29 PM

7. Mark Penn's Harris/Harvard and HarrisX have Warren at 15%

 

which drags down Warren's RCP Averages. HarrisX had Biden at +20 when his average was +3% Harris are unreliable polls from a unapologetic political player.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:32 PM

8. Different polls use different methodologies so variability should be expected.

 

Trends from poll to poll conducted by the same pollster are usually more informative, though if there's similar movement across all pollsters that can also be useful.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:35 PM

10. +20 Biden vs average +3

 

There's a difference is methodology alright - its' called owned by Mark Penn, conducted by the infamous Scott Rasmussen of 2012 GE fame.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #10)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 04:11 PM

13. You do realiz that You Gov is a paid survey right?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #13)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 04:48 PM

15. so is HarrisX and YouGov was the highest rated online poll in the 2018 elections for lowest error

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287345434#post14
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Response to crazytown (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 13, 2019, 01:33 PM

9. Hmm this is No.7 but first on my screen.

 

Must be a thread or two from my ignore list. Love this. Thanks DU.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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