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George II

(67,782 posts)
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 01:21 PM Nov 2019

Warren Wealth Tax Could Slow Economy, Early Analysis Finds

WASHINGTON — Senator Elizabeth Warren’s proposed wealth tax would slow the United States economy, reducing growth by nearly 0.2 percentage points a year over the course of a decade, an outside analysis of the plan estimates.

The preliminary projection from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, which will be unveiled on Thursday in Philadelphia, is the first attempt by an independent budget group to forecast the economic effects of the tax that has become a centerpiece of Ms. Warren’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The assessment found that if the tax raised as much new federal revenue as Ms. Warren intends, and if the proceeds went toward reducing the federal debt, annual economic growth would slow from an average of 1.5 percent to an average of just over 1.3 percent over a decade.

To put the finding in context: Penn Wharton estimated in 2017 that President Trump’s tax cut would increase economic growth by roughly 0.06 percentage points per year over a decade, an effect that was much smaller than White House officials predicted. Its estimate of Ms. Warren’s policy implies the wealth tax would have an effect that is three times as large as the Trump tax cuts — but in the opposite direction.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/14/business/warren-wealth-tax-economy.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

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Warren Wealth Tax Could Slow Economy, Early Analysis Finds (Original Post) George II Nov 2019 OP
This is Trouble for the warren camp Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #1
forget the wealth tax evertonfc Nov 2019 #2
Dupe...Already debunked BeyondGeography Nov 2019 #3
The OP sounds just like Republicans running against FDR. Quixote1818 Nov 2019 #10
This is such a hack job by the NYT BeyondGeography Nov 2019 #11
Agreed. And these are GOP talking points being posted on DU Quixote1818 Nov 2019 #12
+1 nt backtoblue Nov 2019 #14
I wonder what the effect on the economy will be when all Americans have access to health care- dawg day Nov 2019 #4
I suspect(IF she were to win) it will be tied up in litigation for AncientGeezer Nov 2019 #5
The basic analysis is flawed judeling Nov 2019 #6
""and if the proceeds went toward reducing the federal debt,"" It doesn't Buzz cook Nov 2019 #7
It's an interesting idea. Turbineguy Nov 2019 #8
Absolute BS. FDR proved EXACTLY the opposite. Nt Quixote1818 Nov 2019 #9
Reduced debt slows the economy? pat_k Nov 2019 #13
So! It's clear we need big changes!! We need to re-structure the economy!!! nt LAS14 Nov 2019 #15
 

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
1. This is Trouble for the warren camp
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 01:22 PM
Nov 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
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evertonfc

(1,713 posts)
2. forget the wealth tax
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 01:27 PM
Nov 2019

It may be good. It may be bad. It's a GE loser so I'm not sure why we debate it. It's not going to be implemented anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Quixote1818

(28,904 posts)
10. The OP sounds just like Republicans running against FDR.
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:53 PM
Nov 2019

We know how the economy did when FDR taxed the crap out of the wealthy and injected it back into the middle class and the economy. He created the strongest middle class in the history of the country.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BeyondGeography

(39,284 posts)
11. This is such a hack job by the NYT
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:57 PM
Nov 2019

They debunk their own headline in the story. But the headline lives. It will look nice in an anti-Warren ad with a NYT sourceline under it.

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Quixote1818

(28,904 posts)
12. Agreed. And these are GOP talking points being posted on DU
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:58 PM
Nov 2019

I'm kinda stunned at seeing this here.

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dawg day

(7,947 posts)
4. I wonder what the effect on the economy will be when all Americans have access to health care-
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 01:45 PM
Nov 2019

and can take jobs and start businesses without worrying about whether they'll be insured, and can be productive and innovative in their work because they're not constantly stressed out that they might get sick and die because for lack of insurance.

Oh, right, I forgot. A few dozen billionaires are much more important to our economy than 200 million workers.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
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AncientGeezer

(2,146 posts)
5. I suspect(IF she were to win) it will be tied up in litigation for
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 01:54 PM
Nov 2019

so long it would have little to zero impact.
I don't see how a specific tax bracket can be targeted like that, "Wealth Tax"...and factor in the current SCOTUS make-up....

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

judeling

(1,086 posts)
6. The basic analysis is flawed
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:02 PM
Nov 2019

I understand why Penn decided to isolate the analysis to deficit reduction as it is a pure taxes cost.
But Warren's proposal is premised on active economic utilization of the receipts. It must be paired with at least one or more of the proposals it is designed to support.

The economic benefits of the tax is not in the tax but in how the money is used.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Buzz cook

(2,470 posts)
7. ""and if the proceeds went toward reducing the federal debt,"" It doesn't
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:31 PM
Nov 2019

If Warren's wealth tax funded something other than it is meant to fund, the effect would be X.

Student debt, early childhood education, child care. Those are among the things the wealth tax is meant to fund. That would put billions into the economy.

The Clinton tax cut and tax hike stimulated the economy by putting more money in the hands of the working class and middle class. This will do the same thing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Turbineguy

(37,212 posts)
8. It's an interesting idea.
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:41 PM
Nov 2019

But maybe we can come up with a better one. Like charging employers for the welfare benefits their lower paid employees need.

The important thing is it's being thought about.

There are really lots of ways to do social engineering to bring more equity to our economic system.

The bifurcation of the current system is getting worse.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Quixote1818

(28,904 posts)
9. Absolute BS. FDR proved EXACTLY the opposite. Nt
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:51 PM
Nov 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
13. Reduced debt slows the economy?
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 03:19 PM
Nov 2019

That makes absolutely no sense.

And what about the boost in Federal spending?

Increasing social safety net boosts the overall economy.

I thought the Penn Wharton Model had some validity. Either this is missing key inputs, or the model has some problem.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

LAS14

(13,749 posts)
15. So! It's clear we need big changes!! We need to re-structure the economy!!! nt
Thu Nov 14, 2019, 03:51 PM
Nov 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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