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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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According to Nate Silver, Joe Biden is ahead in Iowa (Original Post) Gothmog Jan 2020 OP
Poll averages are the best!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #1
Trends and averages are more revealing that outliers. How HUMILIATING for Bernie! NurseJackie Jan 2020 #9
just remember - gotv like we are 10 behind.... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #2
Based upon the last CNN poll, TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #6
there are only 41 pledged delegates in Iowa? getagrip_already Jan 2020 #8
I was referring to the last paragraph where you mentioned Texas. TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #15
ok, gotcha.. I was just using 538's prediction... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #16
I had a feeling that you might like those numbers. TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #17
You're correct, but the Bernie/Warren/Buttigieg campaigns need to win Iowa bearsfootball516 Jan 2020 #7
Yep have to agree if Joe wins both he will be the nominee after Super Tuesday FloridaBlues Jan 2020 #11
If only Iowa had regular primary voting aeromanKC Jan 2020 #3
Gothmog, thanks for posting this! :) Sloumeau Jan 2020 #4
Biden is at 44% to be nominee Gothmog Jan 2020 #5
Thanks Gothmog...great news K&R...go Joe. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #10
I still expect Bernie to win Iowa Hav Jan 2020 #12
KnR NCProgressive Jan 2020 #13
If Silver is accurate (I have no reason to think he isn't) then . . . peggysue2 Jan 2020 #14
KR! Cha Jan 2020 #18
 

Thekaspervote

(32,605 posts)
1. Poll averages are the best!!
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 11:37 AM
Jan 2020

Like everyone else, I wondered when the one poll came out with Biden 5-6 pts ahead...but 2 and a poll average...looking a lot less like just a glitch

Go Joe go!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
9. Trends and averages are more revealing that outliers. How HUMILIATING for Bernie!
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 01:13 PM
Jan 2020

Trends and averages are more revealing that outliers. How HUMILIATING for Bernie! His numbers are cratering! His campaign is imploding.

Bernie's supporters are loud, brash and aggressively enthusiastic, that's for sure! But, alas, there just aren't enough of them for BS to win OUR party's nomination. They may be willing to donate small-dollar amounts MULTIPLE times, and they may be willing to vote in online polls MULTIPLE times, and they may be willing to go to MULTIPLE rallies... but in the end... they can only vote ONCE (assuming that they vote at all). I only point this out because it's a well known fact that the age range that typically follow BS are the same age range that have the lowest participation rate. Additionally, his followers are also LOATHE to support the Democratic party by actually declaring themselves to be Democrats and be eligible to participate in the Democratic primary. So, in closed-primary states (where ONLY party members get to decide party business) the BS campaign will do poorly.

All I'm saying is that it's pretty much a lost cause for the BS campaign.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(14,225 posts)
2. just remember - gotv like we are 10 behind....
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 11:45 AM
Jan 2020

Kick in the afterburners. Now is not the time to take a victory nap!

But also, Iowa doesn't amount to a pee-hole in the snow from a delegate count. Even at current polling levels, the winner *might* get 1-2 more delegates than number 2, and could get the same. Same for NH.

After the first 2 contests, the leading candidates will be effectively tied for delegates.

The real breakout will come with sc and then super tuesday. Texas alone could earn joe 40+ more delegates than bernie. SC could see 10-15 more for joe.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(111,283 posts)
6. Based upon the last CNN poll,
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 12:32 PM
Jan 2020

Biden would get 160 delegates to 68 delegates for Bernie. Since Bernie was only at 15%, a one percentage point drop would mean that Biden gets all 228 delegates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(14,225 posts)
8. there are only 41 pledged delegates in Iowa?
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 12:48 PM
Jan 2020

They are allocated proportionally. So 3 or 4 candidates will share them.

Are those numbers above through super tuesday?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(111,283 posts)
15. I was referring to the last paragraph where you mentioned Texas.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 02:40 PM
Jan 2020

There are 228 delegates for Texas--my apologies for not clarifying my earlier comment.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(14,225 posts)
16. ok, gotcha.. I was just using 538's prediction...
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 02:46 PM
Jan 2020

I like your numbers better.

With this many well funded candidates in the race, breaking out will be tough and winning states like TX decisively will be hard to catch up to.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(111,283 posts)
17. I had a feeling that you might like those numbers.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 03:15 PM
Jan 2020

The CNN poll for Texas was in December and gave Biden 35% and Sanders 15%. All other candidates were below the 15% threshold to obtain delegates.

I will advise some caution about those percentages because I've noted that are more events being scheduled throughout Texas for Bernie. Yang was also in Bryan, Texas today for the MLK march that ended about 15 minutes ago, but I don't see him gathering that many votes in an area dominated by conservative Aggies.

I also wouldn't be surprised if there is a split of 70% for Biden and 30% for Sanders in the other southern states which would provide a margin for Biden of about 240 delegates. That might get trimmed some by California and Vermont, but Biden could easily have a 150-200 delegate lead after Super Tuesday with an opportunity to increase that lead throughout the remainder of March.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bearsfootball516

(6,369 posts)
7. You're correct, but the Bernie/Warren/Buttigieg campaigns need to win Iowa
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 12:40 PM
Jan 2020

They need to win to use it as a momentum springboard. If Biden wins, he’s likely going to have the nomination wrapped up by the end of Super Tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

FloridaBlues

(3,991 posts)
11. Yep have to agree if Joe wins both he will be the nominee after Super Tuesday
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 01:49 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

aeromanKC

(3,307 posts)
3. If only Iowa had regular primary voting
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 11:47 AM
Jan 2020

Caucuses suck!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
4. Gothmog, thanks for posting this! :)
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 12:03 PM
Jan 2020


This is great news for Joe Biden!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(143,998 posts)
5. Biden is at 44% to be nominee
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 12:27 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
10. Thanks Gothmog...great news K&R...go Joe.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 01:16 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hav

(5,969 posts)
12. I still expect Bernie to win Iowa
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 01:55 PM
Jan 2020

because of the demographics and it being a caucus. Pete could surprise as well. The polls seem to be all over the place but finishing second would already be a good sign for Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
14. If Silver is accurate (I have no reason to think he isn't) then . . .
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 02:14 PM
Jan 2020

it goes a long way in explaining the flurry of attacks against Biden and Sirota's desperation to make a case that Joe Biden is Atilla the Hun, the Grand Plunderer of Social Security.

The flop sweat is beginning to show.

That being said this is no doubt going to be a squeaker.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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