Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,605 posts)Like everyone else, I wondered when the one poll came out with Biden 5-6 pts ahead...but 2 and a poll average...looking a lot less like just a glitch
Go Joe go!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Trends and averages are more revealing that outliers. How HUMILIATING for Bernie! His numbers are cratering! His campaign is imploding.
Bernie's supporters are loud, brash and aggressively enthusiastic, that's for sure! But, alas, there just aren't enough of them for BS to win OUR party's nomination. They may be willing to donate small-dollar amounts MULTIPLE times, and they may be willing to vote in online polls MULTIPLE times, and they may be willing to go to MULTIPLE rallies... but in the end... they can only vote ONCE (assuming that they vote at all). I only point this out because it's a well known fact that the age range that typically follow BS are the same age range that have the lowest participation rate. Additionally, his followers are also LOATHE to support the Democratic party by actually declaring themselves to be Democrats and be eligible to participate in the Democratic primary. So, in closed-primary states (where ONLY party members get to decide party business) the BS campaign will do poorly.
All I'm saying is that it's pretty much a lost cause for the BS campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
getagrip_already
(14,225 posts)Kick in the afterburners. Now is not the time to take a victory nap!
But also, Iowa doesn't amount to a pee-hole in the snow from a delegate count. Even at current polling levels, the winner *might* get 1-2 more delegates than number 2, and could get the same. Same for NH.
After the first 2 contests, the leading candidates will be effectively tied for delegates.
The real breakout will come with sc and then super tuesday. Texas alone could earn joe 40+ more delegates than bernie. SC could see 10-15 more for joe.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,283 posts)Biden would get 160 delegates to 68 delegates for Bernie. Since Bernie was only at 15%, a one percentage point drop would mean that Biden gets all 228 delegates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
getagrip_already
(14,225 posts)They are allocated proportionally. So 3 or 4 candidates will share them.
Are those numbers above through super tuesday?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,283 posts)There are 228 delegates for Texas--my apologies for not clarifying my earlier comment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
getagrip_already
(14,225 posts)I like your numbers better.
With this many well funded candidates in the race, breaking out will be tough and winning states like TX decisively will be hard to catch up to.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,283 posts)The CNN poll for Texas was in December and gave Biden 35% and Sanders 15%. All other candidates were below the 15% threshold to obtain delegates.
I will advise some caution about those percentages because I've noted that are more events being scheduled throughout Texas for Bernie. Yang was also in Bryan, Texas today for the MLK march that ended about 15 minutes ago, but I don't see him gathering that many votes in an area dominated by conservative Aggies.
I also wouldn't be surprised if there is a split of 70% for Biden and 30% for Sanders in the other southern states which would provide a margin for Biden of about 240 delegates. That might get trimmed some by California and Vermont, but Biden could easily have a 150-200 delegate lead after Super Tuesday with an opportunity to increase that lead throughout the remainder of March.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bearsfootball516
(6,369 posts)They need to win to use it as a momentum springboard. If Biden wins, hes likely going to have the nomination wrapped up by the end of Super Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FloridaBlues
(3,991 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
aeromanKC
(3,307 posts)Caucuses suck!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)This is great news for Joe Biden!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(143,998 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hav
(5,969 posts)because of the demographics and it being a caucus. Pete could surprise as well. The polls seem to be all over the place but finishing second would already be a good sign for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NCProgressive
(1,315 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,811 posts)it goes a long way in explaining the flurry of attacks against Biden and Sirota's desperation to make a case that Joe Biden is Atilla the Hun, the Grand Plunderer of Social Security.
The flop sweat is beginning to show.
That being said this is no doubt going to be a squeaker.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden