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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:02 PM Feb 2020

BREAKING: Last Pre-Caucus Poll (Emerson):

Emerson College Polling
@EmersonPolling

28% @BernieSanders (-2)
21% @JoeBiden (0)
15% @PeteButtigieg (+5)
14% @ewarren (+2)
11% @amyklobuchar (-2)
5% @AndrewYang (0)
4% @TomSteyer (-1)
1% @TulsiGabbard (-4)
1% @MichaelBennet (+1)
0% @DevalPatrick (0)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
BREAKING: Last Pre-Caucus Poll (Emerson): (Original Post) brooklynite Feb 2020 OP
Go Amy, Go Liz....get in there split the delegates Fresh_Start Feb 2020 #1
My list Skidmore Feb 2020 #10
This could be interpreted as "Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren closing in on Sanders". George II Feb 2020 #2
Average Bernie +.8 Almost to one! Scurrilous Feb 2020 #3
n/a Apple Fritter Feb 2020 #4
Joe's holding his own in this ppll RandySF Feb 2020 #5
THIS is why I said Biden could finish 5th bluewater Feb 2020 #6
Joe will hold his own, he remains 1st/2nd in all polling can't say that for some candidates FloridaBlues Feb 2020 #9
Biden is second and six points ahead of third place. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #11
Time will tell. bluewater Feb 2020 #14
Look at it this way... TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #15
Um, no. You are looking at it wrong. bluewater Feb 2020 #17
We will find out this evening, TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #18
Interesting... Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #7
Thank you for joining us on Team Pete! CaliforniaPeggy Feb 2020 #12
One candidate is indeed surging. DavidDvorkin Feb 2020 #8
Sanders plus 7 in the final 2 polls today Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #13
FRom another thread judeling Feb 2020 #16
 

Fresh_Start

(11,330 posts)
1. Go Amy, Go Liz....get in there split the delegates
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:04 PM
Feb 2020

evenly if at all possible.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Skidmore

(37,364 posts)
10. My list
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:02 PM
Feb 2020

Biden
Klobuchar
Steyer

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
2. This could be interpreted as "Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren closing in on Sanders".
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:08 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)
3. Average Bernie +.8 Almost to one!
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:10 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Apple Fritter

(131 posts)
4. n/a
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:11 PM
Feb 2020

We'll see tomorrow. Polls, I can't really trust them. Votes don't reflect Polls. Not after 2016, I am skeptical of all.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

RandySF

(57,586 posts)
5. Joe's holding his own in this ppll
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:11 PM
Feb 2020

Fingers crossed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bluewater

(5,376 posts)
6. THIS is why I said Biden could finish 5th
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:12 PM
Feb 2020

The polls are tight and it all comes down to the ground game. Even more so because it is a caucus.

Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren AND Klobuchar all have a better organized ground operation in Iowa than Joe.

Tomorrow we shall see what we shall see...

I might just have made THE prediction of this primary season to date.



Joking. Mostly. Well, not really joking.

lol

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

FloridaBlues

(3,991 posts)
9. Joe will hold his own, he remains 1st/2nd in all polling can't say that for some candidates
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:45 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(111,279 posts)
11. Biden is second and six points ahead of third place.
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:28 PM
Feb 2020

The candidates in fourth and fifth place aren't viable. The likelihood that Biden will finish fifth is slim.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bluewater

(5,376 posts)
14. Time will tell.
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:46 PM
Feb 2020

I, personally, have Biden finishing anywhere from 3rd to 5th.

But friends tell me Klobuchar is going to surprise people, so we will see.

Besides, it's good to have some fun with all this and actually make a bold prediction.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(111,279 posts)
15. Look at it this way...
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 09:24 PM
Feb 2020

if Biden has 21% and is in fifth, then that means that there are four other candidates with 21% or more which comes up to a total greater than 100%. Feel free to have all the fun that you want with the different possibilities of how caucus goers may realign on the second ballot, but there are some things that cannot be defied which is the total cannot be greater than 100%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bluewater

(5,376 posts)
17. Um, no. You are looking at it wrong.
Mon Feb 3, 2020, 10:49 AM
Feb 2020

"if Biden has 21% and is in fifth"

STOP RIGHT THERE.

In the actual caucus NOTHING guarantees that Joe would get 21%, regardless of what any polls say going in.

So he can, of course, do worse and, hence, possibly finish in 5th place.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(111,279 posts)
18. We will find out this evening,
Mon Feb 3, 2020, 02:55 PM
Feb 2020

but I doubt that Biden will be in fifth even though that appears what you are wishing for.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mike Nelson

(9,903 posts)
7. Interesting...
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:22 PM
Feb 2020

... I went from "Undecided" to Pete today... I feel positively trendy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

CaliforniaPeggy

(149,296 posts)
12. Thank you for joining us on Team Pete!
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:30 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DavidDvorkin

(19,404 posts)
8. One candidate is indeed surging.
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 07:23 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Bumperstickers

(199 posts)
13. Sanders plus 7 in the final 2 polls today
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:44 PM
Feb 2020

But the battle for second is very interesting and if you look at the cross tabs about second choice, klobachar voter's would go 41%Biden, 26% Warren, 23% Pete , so Biden may be able to secure second with those votes. Yang, styer and gabbard which makes up 10 percent would all go to Sanders most likley.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

judeling

(1,086 posts)
16. FRom another thread
Sun Feb 2, 2020, 09:40 PM
Feb 2020

Sanders has great toplines.
Biden has steady support and is in the possible error band of the win.
Buttigieg showed a bump.
Warren had an Uptick.
Klobuchar has solidified the non Sanders 2nd choice.

Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar are all in the same error band near 15%. So that is where most of the realignment will be.
Remember that at realignment all candidates still have a chance and even if not viable they can become so. Where the second choice support comes from is a huge difference. When the questions are normally framed the totals are reported. For much of the cycle that had Warren as the most popular second choice. But that was overstated is some ways as so much of it was coming from Sanders. That is important as Sanders will probably not help her much in the realignment.

They didn't break out the Biden and Sanders second choices in the narrative so looking back at several other polls we can extrapolate those,

Sanders second choice seems to be about 50% to Warren and 12% Biden.
Biden second choice appears to be about 45% Klobuchar and 13% Buttigieg.
Warren second choice 46% Sanders 25% Klobuchar
Buttigieg second choice 30% Klobuchar 22% Warren
Klobuchar second choice 41% Biden Warren 26% Warren But Buttigieg picks up 23%.

As you can see between the first and second rounds Warren is likely to benefit the least and Klobuchar the most.
This will make for an interesting night.
One other thing Klobuchar continues to have the edge in late breakers over everyone but Yang.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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