Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBREAKING: Last Pre-Caucus Poll (Emerson):
Emerson College Polling
@EmersonPolling
28% @BernieSanders (-2)
21% @JoeBiden (0)
15% @PeteButtigieg (+5)
14% @ewarren (+2)
11% @amyklobuchar (-2)
5% @AndrewYang (0)
4% @TomSteyer (-1)
1% @TulsiGabbard (-4)
1% @MichaelBennet (+1)
0% @DevalPatrick (0)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)evenly if at all possible.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)Biden
Klobuchar
Steyer
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Apple Fritter
(131 posts)We'll see tomorrow. Polls, I can't really trust them. Votes don't reflect Polls. Not after 2016, I am skeptical of all.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
RandySF
(57,586 posts)Fingers crossed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)The polls are tight and it all comes down to the ground game. Even more so because it is a caucus.
Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren AND Klobuchar all have a better organized ground operation in Iowa than Joe.
Tomorrow we shall see what we shall see...
I might just have made THE prediction of this primary season to date.
Joking. Mostly. Well, not really joking.
lol
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FloridaBlues
(3,991 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,279 posts)The candidates in fourth and fifth place aren't viable. The likelihood that Biden will finish fifth is slim.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I, personally, have Biden finishing anywhere from 3rd to 5th.
But friends tell me Klobuchar is going to surprise people, so we will see.
Besides, it's good to have some fun with all this and actually make a bold prediction.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,279 posts)if Biden has 21% and is in fifth, then that means that there are four other candidates with 21% or more which comes up to a total greater than 100%. Feel free to have all the fun that you want with the different possibilities of how caucus goers may realign on the second ballot, but there are some things that cannot be defied which is the total cannot be greater than 100%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)"if Biden has 21% and is in fifth"
STOP RIGHT THERE.
In the actual caucus NOTHING guarantees that Joe would get 21%, regardless of what any polls say going in.
So he can, of course, do worse and, hence, possibly finish in 5th place.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,279 posts)but I doubt that Biden will be in fifth even though that appears what you are wishing for.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike Nelson
(9,903 posts)... I went from "Undecided" to Pete today... I feel positively trendy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,296 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DavidDvorkin
(19,404 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bumperstickers
(199 posts)But the battle for second is very interesting and if you look at the cross tabs about second choice, klobachar voter's would go 41%Biden, 26% Warren, 23% Pete , so Biden may be able to secure second with those votes. Yang, styer and gabbard which makes up 10 percent would all go to Sanders most likley.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
judeling
(1,086 posts)Sanders has great toplines.
Biden has steady support and is in the possible error band of the win.
Buttigieg showed a bump.
Warren had an Uptick.
Klobuchar has solidified the non Sanders 2nd choice.
Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar are all in the same error band near 15%. So that is where most of the realignment will be.
Remember that at realignment all candidates still have a chance and even if not viable they can become so. Where the second choice support comes from is a huge difference. When the questions are normally framed the totals are reported. For much of the cycle that had Warren as the most popular second choice. But that was overstated is some ways as so much of it was coming from Sanders. That is important as Sanders will probably not help her much in the realignment.
They didn't break out the Biden and Sanders second choices in the narrative so looking back at several other polls we can extrapolate those,
Sanders second choice seems to be about 50% to Warren and 12% Biden.
Biden second choice appears to be about 45% Klobuchar and 13% Buttigieg.
Warren second choice 46% Sanders 25% Klobuchar
Buttigieg second choice 30% Klobuchar 22% Warren
Klobuchar second choice 41% Biden Warren 26% Warren But Buttigieg picks up 23%.
As you can see between the first and second rounds Warren is likely to benefit the least and Klobuchar the most.
This will make for an interesting night.
One other thing Klobuchar continues to have the edge in late breakers over everyone but Yang.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided