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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

patricia92243

(12,590 posts)
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:29 PM Feb 2020

If Iowa had a regular primary, would Bernie be the winner?

I may misunderstand what is being said.

It seems Bernie was ahead the first round then when they had the second round of votes he wasn't.

In a regular primary, people would vote once. Period. No viable, etc. So, on that premise, Bernie would have won.

Am I wrong on this?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If Iowa had a regular primary, would Bernie be the winner? (Original Post) patricia92243 Feb 2020 OP
That is another reason why the caucus is a sham. In addition, to the fact that it is discriminatory still_one Feb 2020 #1
All far more important reasons we should do away with caucuses all together Tiggeroshii Feb 2020 #7
We are on the same page Tigger, but I don't think it will happen anytime soon. Same with the still_one Feb 2020 #11
Well for one thing, attendance would probably be two to three times higher. LisaM Feb 2020 #2
Yep! Tiggeroshii Feb 2020 #3
Hard to say. Caucuses tend to attract activists. The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2020 #4
Oh God!!! About resolutions!! LeftInTX Feb 2020 #22
I think the assumption that the number of people who show up to caucus lapucelle Feb 2020 #5
Not really. Since people know the system going in, votes in the first round are with the heart... unitedwethrive Feb 2020 #6
Also, Bernie is not NOT the winner yet.38% of the vote left means that the leading candidates can Tiggeroshii Feb 2020 #8
Doubtful Hav Feb 2020 #9
That is my suspicion TheRealNorth Feb 2020 #10
I think your conclusion is wrong. SharonClark Feb 2020 #12
Who knows? relayerbob Feb 2020 #13
Nope, can't compare them. Turnout for caucuses is 8%. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #14
Not necessarily squirecam Feb 2020 #15
Probably not... W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #16
Look at the Washington State Caucus vs Washington State Primary results for a clue. OneMoreCupOfCoffee Feb 2020 #19
That was the one where it had both a caucus and a primary, right? W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #20
Yep. OneMoreCupOfCoffee Feb 2020 #21
Who knows ? left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 #17
It seems most Rebl2 Feb 2020 #18
 

still_one

(91,937 posts)
1. That is another reason why the caucus is a sham. In addition, to the fact that it is discriminatory
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:31 PM
Feb 2020

against people who have mobility issues, or cannot spend hours in a caucus hall


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
7. All far more important reasons we should do away with caucuses all together
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:36 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,937 posts)
11. We are on the same page Tigger, but I don't think it will happen anytime soon. Same with the
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:41 PM
Feb 2020

electoral college

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LisaM

(27,758 posts)
2. Well for one thing, attendance would probably be two to three times higher.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:33 PM
Feb 2020

It's impossible to say, but when you're not tied into a particular time window (and can vote absentee), it would pull in a massively different group of voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,267 posts)
4. Hard to say. Caucuses tend to attract activists.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:34 PM
Feb 2020

My experience with caucuses has been that they bring in a lot of people like the guy who was the student body president in high school, wore a suit to class and majored in poli sci and won't let you forget it (he usually ends up in charge because he's memorized the rules and wants to be sure everybody obeys them), or old hippies who insist on introducing resolutions about peace and weed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LeftInTX

(24,541 posts)
22. Oh God!!! About resolutions!!
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:51 PM
Feb 2020

We have them at our senate district conventions. I can't imagine listening to them while caucusing for president!
Our last convention had resolutions about mental illness and eviction cuz this lady was mentally ill and for some reason had been evicted, so she proposed all these resolutions.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

lapucelle

(18,037 posts)
5. I think the assumption that the number of people who show up to caucus
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:35 PM
Feb 2020

is equivalent to the number of people who would show up to vote in a primary is problematic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

unitedwethrive

(1,997 posts)
6. Not really. Since people know the system going in, votes in the first round are with the heart...
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:36 PM
Feb 2020

then, if their preferred candidate is not "viable", they change to their second choice. In real life, many people do not vote for who they really want if they think it is a wasted vote. So, they guess at where their vote would be most valuable.

For instance, I like Klobuchar, and if I lived in Iowa, I would have voted for her on the first round. But, in California (where I live), I wouldn't consider voting for her unless she climbs substantially in the polls before our primary. So, I would then look to either my second choice or to vote against someone that I really don't want to get the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
8. Also, Bernie is not NOT the winner yet.38% of the vote left means that the leading candidates can
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:37 PM
Feb 2020

still easily shuffle places.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Hav

(5,969 posts)
9. Doubtful
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:38 PM
Feb 2020

Numbers in another thread suggester a higher participation of younger people. Caucuses help Bernie but he has this base and cannot expand on that. Supporters of candidates who aren't viable rather choose another candidate as their second option.
That's also why he lost half of his support.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SharonClark

(10,005 posts)
12. I think your conclusion is wrong.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:41 PM
Feb 2020

Sanders has fire-in-the-belly supporters and also no-party people or unregistered people who registered on site. That's part of his strategy.

A primary would attract more non-activists and more moderates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

relayerbob

(6,508 posts)
13. Who knows?
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:44 PM
Feb 2020

Is a self-selecting group of activists, not representative of the voting population at large. Sanders' activists are, well, very active and very loud, and tend to dominate events like this. I am strongly opposed to caucus selections.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
14. Nope, can't compare them. Turnout for caucuses is 8%.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:45 PM
Feb 2020

Many more people can (and would) vote in a primary because polling locations are available all day, plus early voting, plus mail-in voting in some states. For caucuses, only those who can spend a few hours at a specific time at a specific location can participate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

squirecam

(2,706 posts)
15. Not necessarily
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:47 PM
Feb 2020

People knew that could change in a second round.

People might vote differently in a primary if they know they cannot change.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

W_HAMILTON

(7,813 posts)
16. Probably not...
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:50 PM
Feb 2020

...because, from the last go around, caucuses seemed to favor Sanders, whereas primaries favored Hillary.

If Iowa were a primary instead of a caucus, it would have opened up the entire process to many more voters that are not inclined to take part in the ridiculous caucus process, which means the Sanders caucus goers would be diluted.

Basically a popular vote at a caucus is a prime target demo for Sanders. It's not a surprise that he would win such a thing, which is probably why he pushed for its additional reporting to begin with, even though in the grand scheme of things, it means absolutely nothing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OneMoreCupOfCoffee

(314 posts)
19. Look at the Washington State Caucus vs Washington State Primary results for a clue.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:10 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

W_HAMILTON

(7,813 posts)
20. That was the one where it had both a caucus and a primary, right?
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:18 PM
Feb 2020

I was going to mention that, but I couldn't remember what state that happened in.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
17. Who knows ?
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:57 PM
Feb 2020

It's comparing apples to oranges.

CNN said 10% of eligible voters participated in the Iowa caucus.
I'd guess a higher percentage would vote in a primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Rebl2

(13,301 posts)
18. It seems most
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:08 PM
Feb 2020

caucuses are in the evening-am I right? If so, people like me would not get out. I think there should be primaries only. I think they would be fairer because more people would participate. I also think Iowa should no longer be the first state. They should choose a more diverse state.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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