Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

brooklynite

(93,858 posts)
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:37 AM Feb 2020

538: Who will win the South Carolina primary?

Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in South Carolina. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 47% of the vote. He has a 2 in 5 (41%) chance of winning the most votes, essentially tied with the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 2 in 5 (39%) chance.


/photo/1
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
538: Who will win the South Carolina primary? (Original Post) brooklynite Feb 2020 OP
I don't believe it. Their forecast model isn't taking into account how much a lot of the Democratic highplainsdem Feb 2020 #1
Exactly. n/t revmclaren Feb 2020 #2
Agreed! This is malarkey... UncleNoel Feb 2020 #3
Seriously? relayerbob Feb 2020 #4
538's model has Sanders winning a lot of states where Biden's ahead in the polling. It's garbage. highplainsdem Feb 2020 #5
Exactly Dave in VA Feb 2020 #9
Way too early... HowardZinnfandel Feb 2020 #6
"If Sanders wins both Iowa and NH, he's going to be hard to beat after that" ??? LOL W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #7
Except he didn't win. HowardZinnfandel Feb 2020 #10
Revisionist history. W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #11
And then on the other hand, all this Iowa and NH hyping could motivate the anti-Sanders emmaverybo Feb 2020 #8
This sounds familiar. HowardZinnfandel Feb 2020 #12
2016 was a stolen election. It never works to use it as a model. Trump very much wants to run emmaverybo Feb 2020 #13
 

highplainsdem

(48,729 posts)
1. I don't believe it. Their forecast model isn't taking into account how much a lot of the Democratic
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:39 AM
Feb 2020

electorate dislikes Sanders.

I expect his unfavorables to skyrocket soon.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

UncleNoel

(864 posts)
3. Agreed! This is malarkey...
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:43 AM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

relayerbob

(6,508 posts)
4. Seriously?
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:48 AM
Feb 2020

"In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 47% of the vote."

As a scientist and a "six sigma" guy, this broad range of data renders the results nearly valueless.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(48,729 posts)
5. 538's model has Sanders winning a lot of states where Biden's ahead in the polling. It's garbage.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:51 AM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Dave in VA

(2,034 posts)
9. Exactly
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:44 AM
Feb 2020

If I had turned in a result like this to my professors they would've tossed it back in my face!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HowardZinnfandel

(23 posts)
6. Way too early...
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:55 AM
Feb 2020

Way too early. Especially with how they botched Iowa (though not as badly as Iowa botched Iowa).

538 has been looking pretty weak for a while, tbh. And Upshot had Pete like 99% and now it's basically even with 3% to go and most of that 3% coming from places Bernie has been strong. Pete may well have stolen an ill gotten bump with his false claim of victory.

I don't buy the Biden backer line that SC is a lock for them, we have two election days before South Carolina, and no one even knows yet what happened in the election that we've already had!

If Sanders wins both Iowa and NH, he's going to be hard to beat after that, though. And Sanders did well in Iowa in the more diverse areas (Waterloo, Davenport, parts of Des Moines, Marshalltown, Storm Lake) that are more typical of a midwestern swing state in racial demographics.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

W_HAMILTON

(7,813 posts)
7. "If Sanders wins both Iowa and NH, he's going to be hard to beat after that" ??? LOL
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:04 AM
Feb 2020

That's pretty much what happened in 2016 and yet he was mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination after Super Tuesday if I remember correctly.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HowardZinnfandel

(23 posts)
10. Except he didn't win.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:53 AM
Feb 2020

And whether you call it a tie or really close, winning vs not winning matters to Americans, probably more than it should in most circumstances.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

W_HAMILTON

(7,813 posts)
11. Revisionist history.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:59 AM
Feb 2020

Sanders almost beating Hillary and Hillary potentially "choking away" another nomination was all the talk back then.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
8. And then on the other hand, all this Iowa and NH hyping could motivate the anti-Sanders
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 03:49 AM
Feb 2020

voters to come out in droves and vote against him. Don’t underestimate the power of fear. Many Dems fear a Sanders win.

Wonder how Iowans and New Hampshire folks will manage to sway
AA voters to Sander’s side. I will believe it when I see it. But then the Trump people are planning hijinks there. Anything to get the nominee they need and want.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HowardZinnfandel

(23 posts)
12. This sounds familiar.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:00 AM
Feb 2020

Like what people said about Trump and the GOP in 2016. Afraid of what will happen if he wins...etc.

Only in this case what would happen is we would all get healthcare. So, better.

I honestly don't think Trump would want Sanders or Warren. They present a real contrast. You can't play the "whatabout" game. It would be a real choice going against people with real big ideas for fundamental change, which forces Trump to account for his 4 years and what he's done for the people. And I don't think he can do it.

He's going to call names and get mad and sling mud no matter who it is. But people are tired of that and the sharper you can draw that contrast, the harder he's going to have BSing his way through like he does everything else in life except his relationships with Russian mobsters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
13. 2016 was a stolen election. It never works to use it as a model. Trump very much wants to run
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:33 AM
Feb 2020

against candidates who will not fare well in states he will win handily, whom he can paint as giving away the bank and raising middle class taxes and the deficit with 60 trillion dollar giveaways.

Right now with complacency about the economy, enough people satisfied enough, huge economic change won’t sell. Voters know we don’t have to go M4All to get to affordable healthcare for all.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»538: Who will win the Sou...