Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538: Who will win the South Carolina primary?
Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in South Carolina. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 47% of the vote. He has a 2 in 5 (41%) chance of winning the most votes, essentially tied with the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 2 in 5 (39%) chance.
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primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,729 posts)electorate dislikes Sanders.
I expect his unfavorables to skyrocket soon.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
revmclaren
(2,488 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
relayerbob
(6,508 posts)"In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 47% of the vote."
As a scientist and a "six sigma" guy, this broad range of data renders the results nearly valueless.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,729 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Dave in VA
(2,034 posts)If I had turned in a result like this to my professors they would've tossed it back in my face!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)Way too early. Especially with how they botched Iowa (though not as badly as Iowa botched Iowa).
538 has been looking pretty weak for a while, tbh. And Upshot had Pete like 99% and now it's basically even with 3% to go and most of that 3% coming from places Bernie has been strong. Pete may well have stolen an ill gotten bump with his false claim of victory.
I don't buy the Biden backer line that SC is a lock for them, we have two election days before South Carolina, and no one even knows yet what happened in the election that we've already had!
If Sanders wins both Iowa and NH, he's going to be hard to beat after that, though. And Sanders did well in Iowa in the more diverse areas (Waterloo, Davenport, parts of Des Moines, Marshalltown, Storm Lake) that are more typical of a midwestern swing state in racial demographics.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
W_HAMILTON
(7,813 posts)That's pretty much what happened in 2016 and yet he was mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination after Super Tuesday if I remember correctly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)And whether you call it a tie or really close, winning vs not winning matters to Americans, probably more than it should in most circumstances.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
W_HAMILTON
(7,813 posts)Sanders almost beating Hillary and Hillary potentially "choking away" another nomination was all the talk back then.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)voters to come out in droves and vote against him. Dont underestimate the power of fear. Many Dems fear a Sanders win.
Wonder how Iowans and New Hampshire folks will manage to sway
AA voters to Sanders side. I will believe it when I see it. But then the Trump people are planning hijinks there. Anything to get the nominee they need and want.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)Like what people said about Trump and the GOP in 2016. Afraid of what will happen if he wins...etc.
Only in this case what would happen is we would all get healthcare. So, better.
I honestly don't think Trump would want Sanders or Warren. They present a real contrast. You can't play the "whatabout" game. It would be a real choice going against people with real big ideas for fundamental change, which forces Trump to account for his 4 years and what he's done for the people. And I don't think he can do it.
He's going to call names and get mad and sling mud no matter who it is. But people are tired of that and the sharper you can draw that contrast, the harder he's going to have BSing his way through like he does everything else in life except his relationships with Russian mobsters.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)against candidates who will not fare well in states he will win handily, whom he can paint as giving away the bank and raising middle class taxes and the deficit with 60 trillion dollar giveaways.
Right now with complacency about the economy, enough people satisfied enough, huge economic change wont sell. Voters know we dont have to go M4All to get to affordable healthcare for all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden