Biden may have run a fairly strong second tonight.

[MontanaFarmer]

He needs to strongly make the point in the next debate that he still has the time and the ability to unite the moderate lane and beat Bernie. Not much room left for Amy, Pete or Elizabeth now. Super Tuesday may be too late.

[MontanaFarmer]

1. Biden may, ironically,

benefit from Amy winning her home state on ST.

[squirecam]

3. Biden's only chance is to win SC big

And deny Bernie as many delegates as he can on Super Tuesday. He needs Amy to win MN.

[W_HAMILTON]

5. Klobuchar will have cost the other moderates far more delegates by staying in the race...

...than she will have prevented Sanders from winning delegates at that point.

For someone that doesn't want a democratic socialist at the top of the ticket, she has been a net benefit to that happening.

[bucolic_frolic]

7. I agree with that, she's only VP material though a strong one

It is time for the field to consolidate, but I think they'll stay around long enough to see what Bloomberg is up to

[MontanaFarmer]

10. I think that's probably only true WRT new Hampshire.

Biden ran crappy in Iowa and a strong second in Nevada so far, with little effect from Amy. Maybe if Biden had not slumbered through the first 6 months of the race he could have already consolidated the not-berners?

[Celerity]

15. the big effet she had was her blocking Pete from beating Bernie clearly in NH

allowing Sanders to say he 'won' the first two states, which gave him a lot of momentum going forward, including NV.

I am NOT saying Pete would have went on to win the nomination at all, I am simply looking at the combined moderates block Sanders from outright wins whenever possible and trying to keep Bernie from hitting 1600 (roughly 40%, the level where it becomes impossible to stop him at a multi-ballot convention) and also, given hom far less momentum that he gained from 'winning' in NH.

Now, she does need to stay in to block Sanders in Minnesota.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Never write off Lizzie

[squirecam]

4. What Super Tuesday state is she winning?

She’s currently losing even Massachusetts to Bernie.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Ask Mike Bloomberg

if the bruises are fading

[squirecam]

8. She hurt him. Great.

What Super Tuesday state is she winning? She has ZERO chance at gaining a majority.

The only two that can are Biden or Sanders. Otherwise Sanders gets a plurality and it goes to the convention.

[bucolic_frolic]

13. It's early to call this race over

Projections are extrapolation for now.

[Celerity]

17. even Biden is so not a sure thing at this point. He amy become this, but it is going to be a titanic

struggle, and IF he loses SC, he is probably done as well. Losing all the primaries (first 4) will so hurt him on Super Tuesday. He maybe end up 2nd today, but Sanders still crushed him, and beat him with non-white voters.

[Moderateguy]

9. What good did it do her?

[bucolic_frolic]

12. She got a bump in the polls this week

not reflected in NV because of early voting. See what happens ahead.

[Moderateguy]

14. I do not see any NV early voting results do you?

The numbers right now are based on people who showed up today— and she’s 4th

[bucolic_frolic]

16. Oh yes, they're showing up in tonight's results

[squirecam]

19. She didn't get a bump.

The Bellagio caucus had six voters for Warren. Biden had 40+ and Bernie had 70+.

Warren hurt Bloomberg. But that isn’t taking away and Bernie voters and the moderate lane is too clogged. It’s simple at this point.

ONLY sanders or Biden can get an actual majority. Not Warren. Not Pete. Not Amy. Not Bloomberg.

The only other option is a sanders plurality. Which goes to the convention.

If Biden bombs, and loses SC, then it’s either a Sanders majority or Plurality.

The math is clear at this point. And anyone not willing to face it simply gives Sanders the nomination.

[Kaleva]

11. Mike would probably say that Liz isn't winning any Super Tuesday state.

[TexasTowelie]

18. Buttigieg is getting close to the 15% mark in Nevada.

If he is viable, then that will cost Bernie about 4 delegates and Biden about 2 delegates.

[FBaggins]

20. In later news... he didn't

He’s probably second... but by no means a “strong” second.

[pinkstarburst]

21. Biden needs to shake things up

If he wants to stay in this, he's got to change up the game.

There is zero motivation for Liz, Amy or Pete to drop out. They have pledged delegates. If they drop out, their delegates will be released and they lose that bargaining power at the convention. They're getting to be in debates and are still getting donations. And anything could happen between now and July. Scandals. Medical events. Anything.

Biden's troubles are about to get a lot worse with Bloomberg entering the picture on Super Tuesday. He already has Pete and Elizabeth (and Amy, to a lesser extent) dividing up the non-Sanders vote. Now he'll have Bloomberg as well.

The only reason Amy, Pete or Elizabeth should drop out is if one of the front-runners makes them a VP offer now. I wonder if Biden will go ahead and do this--most likely to Warren, but maybe to Pete. It would potentially consolidate some of those voters as well as help with crowding in the moderate field. Otherwise, I don't see how he slows Sanders.

[MontanaFarmer]

22. I still think he's going to get some bump here in the next week.

Warren too. Most of this vote was made prior to the debate. Bloomberg should lose some vote share. There's no path for Amy or Pete through the south IMO, their path to the nomination is a contested convention. That's Warren's path too if we're being honest; she may make the best case from within the current field as the unity candidate.