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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:25 PM

 

A Prediction

It is hard to predict the future, but here are a few ideas. Right now, it is a contest between Bernie and Biden, maybe with Bloomberg thrown in as a wild card. That said, I see three main possible outcomes- 1) Bernie wins a majority of delegates before the Convention, 2) Biden wins a majority of delegates before the Convention, or 3) Bernie and Joe both split the delegates fairly evenly, both have a plurality, neither has a majority.

[Correction- what I meant was that neither candidate would earn enough delegates to secure the nomination before the Convention.]

I think that the third option right now is the most likely. If Biden and Bernie both have a lot of delegates, but neither has a clear majority, the Convention will decide who the candidate will be. My prediction is if this happens, the first ballot at the Convention will confirm neither candidate.

Once delegates are released and Super Delegates are in play for the second ballot, Biden will win on the second ballot. He will then become the nominee. Then a lot of the Bernie supporters will be upset, yet still many of them will vote for Joe in the General Election. So, my prediction is that Joe will get the nomination, and then will go on to defeat Trump, whether narrowly or decisively, I do not yet know. We shall see.

[Edited]
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply A Prediction (Original post)
Progressive2020 Mar 2020 OP
honest.abe Mar 2020 #1
Progressive2020 Mar 2020 #8
JustAnotherGen Mar 2020 #2
still_one Mar 2020 #6
Progressive2020 Mar 2020 #10
Poeraria Mar 2020 #3
Mr.Bill Mar 2020 #9
Mr.Bill Mar 2020 #4
Progressive2020 Mar 2020 #5
Dem4Life1102 Mar 2020 #7
dumptrump1 Mar 2020 #11
Progressive2020 Mar 2020 #12

Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:29 PM

1. Two candidates cannot both have a plurality.

 

Plurality means one candidate has the most delegates but not a majority.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:34 PM

8. Majority

 

I take your point. What I meant was neither would have enough delegates to secure the nomination prior to the Convention. Not a majority or plurality. Thank you for the correction.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:30 PM

2. I think

 

We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

Let's wait and see what happens tomorrow. I'm an avid listener of Joe Madison and Clay Cane. I'm right with Clay today -

I don't trust polls.
I don't trust made up horse races by the media.
The media wins when they play us.

I trust votes.

It was all doom and gloom for Biden until Saturday evening. None of us have any idea how tomorrow is going to play out.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:33 PM

6. +++

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:38 PM

10. I Agree

 

I agree in some part that we need to be cautious, but sometimes it is just fun to think about what might happen. I would add that I predicted Joe's big win in South Carolina. That was the lead story Saturday. The second headline was that Bernie came in a weak second rather than a strong second.

Right now, I think that the question is how much of a surge can Biden expect? A big surge, or not? Will Bernie rack up some big wins in California and Texas, or will Biden at least be a strong second? That is what is on my mind right now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:31 PM

3. But if a decision has to be made at the convention, maybe popular vote count should be considered.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Joe's way ahead.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Poeraria (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:35 PM

9. Even though it would right now favor my choice of candidate,

 

the rules are set and changing them now would be wrong.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:32 PM

4. With most evryone else dropping out,

 

I think one of them will have a majority of delegates before the convention.

No matter what happens, if Bernie doesn't get the nomination he will act much the same as he did in 2016.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:32 PM

5. Delegates

 

What I meant in the OP is that it is possible that neither Joe nor Bernie would earn enough delegates to secure the nomination before the Convention. If that is the case, then the Convention will determine the nominee. I think that Joe would win on the second ballot, once delegates are freed and then Super Delegates vote.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:33 PM

7. Buttigieg and Klobuchar can release their delegates before the convention

 

and direct them to vote for Biden on the first ballot.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Progressive2020 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:52 PM

11. with the thinning of the field, option 3 is far less likely.

 

I expect Warren will drop out if she loses her own state tomorrow, and this will be a two way race between biden and sanders after bloomberg fails to win much of any delegates as well.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to dumptrump1 (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 05:04 PM

12. You May Be Right

 

I thought that Warren's, Bloomberg's, Buttigieg's, and Klobuchar's delegates would not be available on the first ballot at the Convention. I just found out that they could release their delegates prior to the first ballot, in which case it would come down to either Bernie or Biden on the first ballot.

This renders my OP moot. I read online that 2376 delegates out of 4750 are need to secure the Democratic Nomination. The rules are kind of arcane and hard to follow, but it looks like a two person contest will probably be decided before the Convention. So, my original post is probably incorrect.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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