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Name: Mister Rea
Gender: Male
Hometown: Houston
Home country: Moon
Current location: afk
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 48,808

About Me

mostly harmless

Journal Archives

Another week of slow improvement in numbers

Despite a slow increase in rates of testing, the number of new coronavirus confirmed cases dropped for the fourth week in a row, if you count deaths and new confirmed cases by the week.

Week of April 26th - 8% drop
Week of May 3rd - 7% drop
Week of May 10th - 14% drop
Week of May 17th - 1% drop

This might be a temporary lull. But fortunately the expected surge as the pandemic shifts to smaller states where hygiene protocols are not being followed as rigorously, has not yet occurred.

Death rates from the coronavirus are also dropping off.

Week of April 26th - 12% drop
Week of May 3rd --- 5% drop
Week of May 10th - 20% drop
Week of May 17th - 15% drop

Since the beginning of April, every week has seen at least 10,000 people died in the United States from the Coronavirus. The week of May 17th what's the first time that number fell below 10,000--down to 8570. That's too many, and we will certainly go over the 100,000 mark this coming week, probably on Monday. But going by the Numbers, this wave of the virus seems to be running out of steam... slowly.

Some places, like here in Texas, we're expected to see continued rise in infections and losses. We have a big problem with "summer soldiers" literally taking the summer off from quarantine and safety precautions. So everyone still needs to be diligent and disciplined.

And don't forget to remind your family that it's very likely to get bad again starting in September or October.

We're gonna look back on the 2010s as a golden age in America


Packin' heat

Cormac McCarthy's Ex-Wife Pulled a Gun Out of Her Vagina During an Argument About Aliens

According to the Albuquerque Journal, McCarthy, reportedly stormed out during a fight over extraterrestrial life with her unnamed boyfriend and then returned with a plan for vengeance. The police report describes how she went to her bedroom, dressed up in lingerie, put the gun in a place no guns should go, then somehow performed an unspecified sex act with the gun insider her. Naturally, that was just a prelude to pulling the gun out, pointing it at her boyfriend, and asking the presumably rhetorical question "Who is crazy, you or me?"

There, now that's a thing you didn't know.

Cautious optimism

Covid19 mortality counts have gone down the last three weeks in a row. Not by much, but this is the week's start date, number of deaths, and weekly change since mid-March

Mar 15 - 317
Mar 22 - 2,380 +651%
Mar 29 - 7,630 +221%
Apr 05 - 13,678 + 79%
Apr 12 - 15,269 + 12%
Apr 19 - 14,925 -2%
Apr 26 - 13,188 -12%
May 03 - 12,593 -5%
May 10 - 3,388 {pending}

Trump's gone too far now... trying to politicize cute puppies!! This will make you so mad!

Dream a little

Secret message to trolls, We Ar Wininge!!1!!!

Do you ever find yourself watching a news report on a Trump Twitter meltdown...

...and realize you don't know if they're talking about the meltdown you vaguely heard about last night, the really big meltdown from the day before, or if it's a brand new meltdown from earlier today that you missed because you at work or doing house chores?

I mean, I'm not expected to keep up with all this, right? I'm having enough trouble working from home and not coughing on my neighbors.

HEALTH AFFAIRS (online mag): Covid19 "infection fatality rate" is 1.3%


Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States

by Anirban Basu
MAY 07, 2020

Knowing the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 infections is essential for the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data through April 20, 2020, we fit a statistical model to COVID-19 case fatality rates over time at the US county level to estimate the COVID-19 IFR among symptomatic cases (IFR-S) as time goes to infinity. The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%). County-specific rates varied from 0.5% to 3.6%. The overall IFR for COVID-19 should be lower when we account for cases that remain and recover without symptoms. When used with other estimating approaches, our model and our estimates can help disease and policy modelers to obtain more accurate predictions for the epidemiology of the disease and the impact of alternative policy levers to contain this pandemic.

Editor’s Note: This Fast Track "Ahead Of Print" article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.

See full articles for details--there's a lot of mathy stuff in there I don't pretend to grasp. However, this is hopeful news, based on the number of infections that don't get reported because their lack of severity allows some cases to go unreported or even undetected. Of course a highly infectious disease that a huge number of people may get will still exact a devastating cost if it "only" kills at a 1.3% rate. But this is a serious downtick from earlier estimates of 3-4% mortality rates.

The historical roots Ammon Bundy's Covid19 militaristic apocalypse


Great perspective and a short read

COVID-19 and the White Horse Prophecy: The Theology of Ammon Bundy
by Betsy Gaines Quammen

What makes the US singular in the world are the rebellions springing up to protest stay-at-home orders put into place to protect us from the unspooling spread of disease. Agitators against such orders range from Ammon Bundy and his supporters in Idaho and Utah to various armed militia groups, like the Proud Boys in Michigan. Many protestors believe restrictions are noxious violations of liberty that keep us from barbershops, bars, diners and our jobs. Others believe that the disease is a ploy with an ultimate goal to steal away rights. And then there are some inclined to believe in religious prophecy amidst pestilence; as in God setting the stage for big, transformative action—think the Book of Revelation. Bundy believes all of this.

An urgent source of inspiration in all of Bundy’s rebellion is a murky piece of Mormon apocrypha known as the White Horse Prophecy. This historical hangover helps explain his resistance to social-distancing constraints amid a pandemic: He’s drawn to the image of the White Horse in a final defense of the United States Constitution. His agitation is a religious rite inspired by the first prophet of his religion, Joseph Smith, the founder of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Bundy has said, regarding his ongoing anti-government rebellion, “that our Constitution was being violated. That it was hanging by a thread”—a clear allusion to the language of the White Horse Prophecy.

The White Horse Prophecy was supposedly uttered by Mormon prophet Joseph Smith in 1843 to two witnesses, Theodore Turley and Edwin Rushton...

The full article is worth a read, if you find gun-toting American crazies interesting. I didn't realize before this that Bundy was a Mormon, let alone that he was a militarized adherent to a twisted version of Mormon mythology that is officially rejected by the church.

WH Memo Directs Everyone To Wear Masks When Entering West Wing

Source: Talking Points Memo

WASHINGTON (AP) — White House memo directs everyone to wear masks when entering West Wing, following virus scares close to president.

Read more: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/wh-memo-directs-everyone-to-wear-masks-when-entering-west-wing

These people are idiots. 4 months into the pandemic and they still don't understand that if you wear a mask it doesn't protect you. Masks are there to protect other people. If you take the mask off the second you step inside, you're still a danger everyone in the office.
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