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brooklynite

brooklynite's Journal
brooklynite's Journal
October 27, 2020

David Wasserman: The polls could be wrong. But that may help Biden, not just Trump.

NBC News

As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that "the polls could be wrong again."

In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there's always bound to be some degree of error, especially given the widely varying quality of the nation's pollsters. But Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win re-election, and there's no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor.

First, it's important to remember that in 2016, the final pre-election average showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 46.8 percent to 43.6 percent nationally, according to leading polling aggregator RealClearPolitics. That wasn't too far off the mark: She went on to win the popular vote 48.2 percent to 46.1 percent, not exactly strong evidence that hordes of "shy Trump voters" refused to tell pollsters their true intentions.

However, an examination of state-level polling reveals a clear and crucial pattern: In both 2016 and the 2018 midterm elections, state polls chronically underestimated Republicans' strength in the Midwest and Florida, and underestimated Democrats' strength in the Southwest.


October 27, 2020

Belgium's new princess takes her place beside former king for first time

The Guardian

The long-running royal scandal that has riveted Belgium and damaged those involved reached a new milestone when the former king Albert II reunited with the daughter he fathered out of wedlock more than half a century ago.

Albert II sat between his wife, Queen Paola, and the former Delphine Boel, who has been recognised as Her Royal Highness Princess Delphine after a bitter two-decade paternity fight.

“After the tumult, the suffering and the hurt, it is time for forgiveness, healing and reconciliation,“ the three said in a joint statement issued by the palace on Tuesday, two days after the meeting.

“Together, we decided to take this new path. It will require patience and effort, but we are determined,“ they said.



October 27, 2020

Can I Change My Vote? Trump Tweets 'Go Do it' as Google Searches Spike

Source: Newsweek

President Donald Trump has told people searching Google to ask if they can change their vote to "go do it," claiming they want to switch their support to him.

Trump commented after an apparent uptick in the search following the second debate between him and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

The incumbent Republican, lagging in the polls, suggested these searches refer to people who have already voted wanting to change it to him.

"Strongly Trending (Google) since immediately after the second debate is CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE? This refers changing it to me," Trump tweeted Tuesday morning.


Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tweets-can-i-change-my-vote-election-1542364



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