On a hundred-odd Zoom meetings, webinars, and conference call speeches that I’ve participated in over the past two months, virtual attendees continue to raise the possibility of a contested presidential election, even though the chances of that have been getting smaller all the time. Every day that Trump remains behind in the polls, outspent badly and with the early vote gushing in, the cone of uncertainty narrows, and the odds of such an upset goes down.

Joe Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a “skinny” Biden win.

A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although don’t count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

GASTONIA, N.C. (WBTV) - Gaston County health officials say that at least two people who attended President Trump’s campaign rally in Gastonia last week tested positive for COVID-19.

The rally was held at Gaston Municipal Airport on Oct. 21 where more than 20,000 people were in attendance.

Gaston County officials say those positive cases are not thought to be an indication of spread from the rally, but instead just independent cases among individuals at the event.

However, there could be a concern of a potential spread, according to county officials.

HARRISBURG — Potentially thousands of mail ballots requested by Butler County voters appear to be lost, a county official said Wednesday, and the U.S. Postal Service has been asked to immediately investigate what happened to them.

A USPS spokesperson, meanwhile, said the agency is “unaware of any significant delays or issues and is in regular contact with the Board of Election as we work to locate and deliver ballots as they are presented to us.”

As of Tuesday, Pennsylvania voters are no longer able to apply for an absentee or mail-in ballot.

Nearly 40,000 registered voters in the county requested mail ballots. So far, only 24% of them have been returned to the county, by far the lowest rate among the state’s 67 counties. The county with the next-lowest return rate, Fayette, has received 50% of requested ballots.

A Florida entrepreneur is the first defendant to plead guilty in a campaign finance and business fraud case involving associates of Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor and attorney for President Donald Trump.

David Correia, 45, pleaded guilty Thursday to two felony counts: one of making false statements to the Federal Election Commission and one of conspiracy to commit wire fraud.


Manhattan-based U.S. District Court Judge Paul Oetken accepted the plea during a proceeding held via videoconference due to the coronavirus pandemic. Correia's sentencing is set for Feb. 8.

The case against Correia and three other men — Lev Parnas, Igor Fruman and David Kukushkin — has drawn widespread attention because Parnas and Fruman worked closely with Giuliani on various issues related to Ukraine, including an attempt to oust then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch. She was recalled from her post in May 2019, amid complaints from Trump allies that she was refusing to advance efforts to pressure the Ukrainians to announce an investigation into a Trump rival who is now the Democratic nominee for president, former Vice President Joe Biden.