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NNadir
NNadir's Journal
NNadir's Journal
July 1, 2022
The term used in this opening statement, "clean energy" is one I personally find objectionable. There's nothing "clean" about wind and electric cars.
I recently attended an online lecture put on by the Irving Institute at Dartmouth by a scientist whose name escapes me about the "recycling" handwaving that goes on, by the way. She pointed out that in use materials are not available for recycling, and where use is growing rapidly the demand must be met by mining.
Some graphics from the paper:
The caption:
Some frame work on the flows:
The caption:
The caption:
The caption:
The caption:
The caption:
The caption:
According to text in the paper China does not have enough dysprosium to meet its internal demand. (This is surprising to me.)
Several policy recommendations are made since China is both the largest producer and consumer of dysprosium.
One is to crack down on illegal mining - the isolation of lanthanides and their separation is very dirty chemistry, and when wildcatted, it is even worse.
Others are to increase recycling - although as noted above - recycling will not meet supply in a case of rising demand, rising demand being operative in the dysprosium supply.
I would imagine that most people do not think about this element. It's obscure. It is rather amazing however, to recognize how much depends on access to it, even in the case where the world comes to its senses and stops building wind turbines.
The light lanthanides are all fission products; the heavy ones (those past gadolinium) are not.
Uncovering the Key Features of Dysprosium Flows and Stocks in China
I have just come across this paper: Uncovering the Key Features of Dysprosium Flows and Stocks in China
Shijiang Xiao, Yong Geng, Hengyu Pan, Ziyan Gao, and Tianli Yao Environmental Science & Technology 2022 56 (12), 8682-8690.
There are 14 lanthanide elements, with yttrium making 15 although it is not strictly an "f element" although its chemistry is very similar. Most lanthanide (aka "rare earths" ) deposits are dominated by just two, cerium and yttrium, with the other, with the lighter 6 including cerium as well as lanthanum, praseodymium, neodymium, samarium, and gadolinium dominating the remainder. (Europium can behave differently than most lanthanides and is sometimes depleted in ores. Promethium does not occur naturally; it is radioactive, with a short half life, but can be obtained, in very small quantities - because of its high neutron capture cross section - from used nuclear fuels.)
Dysprosium is a "heavy" lanthanide, and as such is relatively rare. Nevertheless it is in high demand, hence this article.
The largest application, as one can see from the open abstract, is to build wind turbines, which after decades of cheering and the destruction of huge tracts of wilderness to make industrial parks, remains a trivial form of energy, even though the fate of the planet's atmosphere has foolishly been bet on them.
From the opening text of the full article:
Dysprosium (Dy) is considered one of the most critical rare earth elements (REEs). Dy is usually added in neodymium magnets (NdFeB) to improve their heat resistance. (1?4) Due to the high levels of magnetic strength in relative compact sizes, NdFeB magnets have become an indispensable component in several high-tech applications and clean energy technologies, such as industrial robotics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. (5,6) Demand for Dy has sharply increased since the start of this century. (7) Especially, clean energy technologies are the key to moving toward carbon neutrality, which means that the demand for Dy will further increase in the near future. (8?11) However, the global Dy reserve is limited, leading to concerns on how to achieve sustainable Dy supply. (12,13)
China has the largest REE reserve with an amount of approximate 44 megatons (Mt, 1 Mt = 1,000,000 tons), accounting for 37% of the global reserve in 2019. (14) As for Dy, it is estimated that the global dysprosium oxide (Dy2O3) reserve is 1.62 Mt, referring to 1.41 Mt Dy metallic equivalent. (14) China has the largest Dy reserve with an overall amount of 1.23 Mt, accounting for 87% of the global reserve. (14) Such reserve exists for several common rare earth minerals, such as monazite, xenotime, bastnasite, and ion-adsorbed clays (IACs). In particular, the Dy-rich IACs are distributed only in Southern Chinese provinces, such as Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hunan. However, the accurate flows and stocks of China’s Dy cycle remain unclear.
Material flow analysis (MFA) is one widely recognized method to characterize material flows through the anthroposphere. (15) MFA is capable to track material flows through a specified system boundary and identify how one material transforms and accumulates over its lifecycle based on the principle of mass balance. (16) This method has been employed to analyze most mineral elements and several REEs within different regions and periods, such as aluminum, tungsten, graphite, and neodymium. (17?20) As for the Dy cycle, the existing MFA studies mainly focus on the Dy flows associated with NdFeB in Japan, (1) the impacts of the increasing demand for neodymium (Nd) and Dy on the supply and demand of the host metals and other companion REE in wind power in the US, (12) Dy stocks and flows in NdFeB magnets among 18 various products and its recycling potential by 2035 in Denmark, (21) and the effectiveness of reducing Dy demand from low-Dy NdFeB magnets and promoting NdFeB magnets recycling in Japan for 2010–2030. (22)
China has the largest REE reserve with an amount of approximate 44 megatons (Mt, 1 Mt = 1,000,000 tons), accounting for 37% of the global reserve in 2019. (14) As for Dy, it is estimated that the global dysprosium oxide (Dy2O3) reserve is 1.62 Mt, referring to 1.41 Mt Dy metallic equivalent. (14) China has the largest Dy reserve with an overall amount of 1.23 Mt, accounting for 87% of the global reserve. (14) Such reserve exists for several common rare earth minerals, such as monazite, xenotime, bastnasite, and ion-adsorbed clays (IACs). In particular, the Dy-rich IACs are distributed only in Southern Chinese provinces, such as Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hunan. However, the accurate flows and stocks of China’s Dy cycle remain unclear.
Material flow analysis (MFA) is one widely recognized method to characterize material flows through the anthroposphere. (15) MFA is capable to track material flows through a specified system boundary and identify how one material transforms and accumulates over its lifecycle based on the principle of mass balance. (16) This method has been employed to analyze most mineral elements and several REEs within different regions and periods, such as aluminum, tungsten, graphite, and neodymium. (17?20) As for the Dy cycle, the existing MFA studies mainly focus on the Dy flows associated with NdFeB in Japan, (1) the impacts of the increasing demand for neodymium (Nd) and Dy on the supply and demand of the host metals and other companion REE in wind power in the US, (12) Dy stocks and flows in NdFeB magnets among 18 various products and its recycling potential by 2035 in Denmark, (21) and the effectiveness of reducing Dy demand from low-Dy NdFeB magnets and promoting NdFeB magnets recycling in Japan for 2010–2030. (22)
The term used in this opening statement, "clean energy" is one I personally find objectionable. There's nothing "clean" about wind and electric cars.
I recently attended an online lecture put on by the Irving Institute at Dartmouth by a scientist whose name escapes me about the "recycling" handwaving that goes on, by the way. She pointed out that in use materials are not available for recycling, and where use is growing rapidly the demand must be met by mining.
Some graphics from the paper:
The caption:
Figure 1. MFA framework for China’s Dy cycle.
Some frame work on the flows:
Based on the principle of mass balance, China’s Dy flows and stocks are classified into five accounting processes from a life cycle perspective.
(1) Domestic flows: domestic flows are the basic Dy flows, covering mining, fabrication, manufacturing, and use stages. They are calculated based on the amounts of primary products, intermediate products, final products, and Dy contents in different products. Various Dy forms are transformed into unique metallic Dy flows. These final products and their Dy contents are listed in Tables S1 and S2.
(2) Trade flows: trade flows reflect the Dy import and export amounts at five stages with various forms. These Dy-containing products are coded by the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System of China and listed in Table S3. The trade flows are equal to the traded product amounts multiplied by their corresponding Dy contents.
(3) Loss flows: in this study, the Dy losses are assumed to occur in the R&S stage and fabrication stage, with figures of 10 and 30% respectively. (1,26) These loss flows are calculated by multiplying the production amounts and their loss rates.
(4) Supply-demand flows: Dy flows are calculated by the top-down approach in the R&S stage, while the bottom-up approach is used to estimate the demand for Dy in the fabrication and use stages. Hence, there is a mismatch between the Dy-containing concentrate supply and compound demand, and this gap is considered to be composed of hibernating stock and illegal mining.
(5) In-use stocks: a bottom-up approach is applied to estimate the in-use Dy stocks through the accumulation of net flows since the base year of 2000. (27) The calculation equations are listed as...
(1) Domestic flows: domestic flows are the basic Dy flows, covering mining, fabrication, manufacturing, and use stages. They are calculated based on the amounts of primary products, intermediate products, final products, and Dy contents in different products. Various Dy forms are transformed into unique metallic Dy flows. These final products and their Dy contents are listed in Tables S1 and S2.
(2) Trade flows: trade flows reflect the Dy import and export amounts at five stages with various forms. These Dy-containing products are coded by the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System of China and listed in Table S3. The trade flows are equal to the traded product amounts multiplied by their corresponding Dy contents.
(3) Loss flows: in this study, the Dy losses are assumed to occur in the R&S stage and fabrication stage, with figures of 10 and 30% respectively. (1,26) These loss flows are calculated by multiplying the production amounts and their loss rates.
(4) Supply-demand flows: Dy flows are calculated by the top-down approach in the R&S stage, while the bottom-up approach is used to estimate the demand for Dy in the fabrication and use stages. Hence, there is a mismatch between the Dy-containing concentrate supply and compound demand, and this gap is considered to be composed of hibernating stock and illegal mining.
(5) In-use stocks: a bottom-up approach is applied to estimate the in-use Dy stocks through the accumulation of net flows since the base year of 2000. (27) The calculation equations are listed as...
The caption:
Figure 2. Cumulative Dy cycle in China from 2000 to 2019 and the annual Dy cycle in 2009 and 2019. Note: IACs: ion adsorbed clays, MRI: magnetic resonance imaging machines, CV: conventional vehicles, EV: electric vehicles, AC: air conditioners, RE: refrigerators, WM: washing machines, WT: wind turbines, EB: E-bikes, DC: desktop computer, LC: laptop computer, MP: mobile phones, LP: loudspeakers, VC: vacuum cleaners, MO: microwave ovens, EL: elevators, CD: CD/DVD players, IR: industrial robots, and OT: others.
The caption:
Figure 3. Final Dy demand and application structure in China from 2000 to 2019.
The caption:
Figure 4. In-use Dy stocks in China from 2000 to 2019.
The caption:
Figure 5. EoL Dy flows in China from 2000 to 2019.
The caption:
Figure 6. Historical evolution of Dy supply and demand (a), hibernating stocks (b), illegal mining (c), and price (d) in China from 2000 to 2019.
The caption:
Figure 7. International Dy trade amounts in China from 2000 to 2019.
According to text in the paper China does not have enough dysprosium to meet its internal demand. (This is surprising to me.)
Several policy recommendations are made since China is both the largest producer and consumer of dysprosium.
One is to crack down on illegal mining - the isolation of lanthanides and their separation is very dirty chemistry, and when wildcatted, it is even worse.
Others are to increase recycling - although as noted above - recycling will not meet supply in a case of rising demand, rising demand being operative in the dysprosium supply.
I would imagine that most people do not think about this element. It's obscure. It is rather amazing however, to recognize how much depends on access to it, even in the case where the world comes to its senses and stops building wind turbines.
The light lanthanides are all fission products; the heavy ones (those past gadolinium) are not.
June 30, 2022
Reference 129 is this one: Guiji Liu , Michelle Lee, Soonho Kwon, Guosong Zeng, Johanna Eichhorn, Aya K. Buckley, F. Dean Toste , William A. Goddard III , and Francesca M. Toma CO2 reduction on pure Cu produces only H2 after subsurface O is depleted: Theory and experiment, PNAS 118 (23) (2021) e2012649118
Here's a graphic from this paper:
The caption:
It appears that copper (I) oxide is essential for producing hydrocarbons electrochemically and improves the yield over the production of hydrogen. Once the oxide is reduced, the product is more or less just hydrogen. The electrodes can be regenerated by simply exposing them to air, albeit for extended periods.
Regrettably I don't have much time to go into the details.
Hydrogen of course, can be converted to useful fuels via Fischer Tropsch chemistry (for petroleum like fuels) or fuels superior to petroleum, the best of which is dimethyl ether, a highly flexible and easily transportable fuel. It is not, however, despite decades of stupid rhetoric that still goes on and on and on and on, a useful consumer fuel: The infrastructure for so utilizing it would be expensive, unsustainable, and frankly dangerous. Hydrogen use should be limited to its already important realm as a useful captive intermediate in the chemical industry.
Direct reduction of carbonates to carbon fuels with water as the hydrogen donor is probably a good idea, again, only under the thermodynamic constraint that the electricity so utilized is a side product of other processes, represented "captured" exergy, available to be dispatched to grids on an "as needed basis."
Note that Faradaic efficiency is not the same as thermodynamic efficiency. Faradaic efficiency can be thought of as the fraction of electrons that end up in the product or in this case the products. The overall thermodynamic efficiency can be thought of as the product of the Faradaic efficiency and the Voltage efficiency, the latter representing the overvoltage required to drive the reaction. Essentially this is the extra energy to over come electrical resistance in the systems and represents energy lost as heat.
It will be interesting to see how nanostructured materials may be applied to further move these kinds of systems to ethylene to sequester carbon as polymeric material and to eliminate the use of dangerous fossil fuels.
Have a nice day tomorrow.
The Role of Copper Oxides in the Electrochemical Reduction of CO2 to C2 Carbon Fuels.
As I often point out, electricity is a thermodynamically degraded form of energy, and storing it as chemical energy degrades it even further. The caveat to this statement is that where electricity generation is a side product of another process involving high temperatures, such as the thermochemical production of hydrogen, or, as I recently discussed in this space, zero discharge supercritical water desalination. Under these circumstances, electricity, which may represent waste electricity if demand is low, can be utilized to increase the exergy of a system even if there is a thermodynamic loss associated with the conversion of electricity to chemical energy.
Here is the zero discharge desalination scheme I discussed fairly recently, in some detail, a situation in which electricity might be a side product of another process: The Energy Required to Supply California's Water with Zero Discharge Supercritical Desalination.
A great deal has been written about the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide to give various hydrocarbons, alcohols, aldehydes and organic acids - the latter most often formic acid. Recently I came across a nice review of the topic: Modeling Operando Electrochemical CO2 Reduction Federico Dattila, Ranga Rohit Seemakurthi, Yecheng Zhou, and Núria López Chemical Reviews 2022 122 (12), 11085-11130
Here is an intriguing graphic from the paper:
The caption:
Figure 3. (a) Faradaic efficiencies of ethylene and ethanol for eCO2R in 0.1 M KHCO3 on Cu at different cathodic bias and applied temperatures. Anodic pulse, +0.6 V vs RHE; timesteps for anodic and cathodic pulses, 1 s.127 (b) Product distribution on Cu, thin Cu2O, and thick Cu2O for CO2 reduction in a 0.1 M K2CO3 electrolyte at ?1.0 V vs RHE after 1 h, 16 h of continuous operation, and regeneration of the oxide layer by exposing the catalyst to air for 2 weeks after operation.129 (a) Adapted with permission from ref 127. Copyright 2021 American Chemical Society. (b) Adapted with permission from ref 129. Copyright 2021 National Academy of Sciences.
Reference 129 is this one: Guiji Liu , Michelle Lee, Soonho Kwon, Guosong Zeng, Johanna Eichhorn, Aya K. Buckley, F. Dean Toste , William A. Goddard III , and Francesca M. Toma CO2 reduction on pure Cu produces only H2 after subsurface O is depleted: Theory and experiment, PNAS 118 (23) (2021) e2012649118
Here's a graphic from this paper:
The caption:
Fig. 2. Stable phases and catalytic activities of polycrystalline Cu and thick Cu2O under CO2RR. Ex situ GIXRD analysis of polycrystalline Cu (A) and thick Cu2O (B) after 0 (as-prepared), 2, 10, 30, and 60 min CO2RR at ?1 VRHE in 0.1 M CO2-saturated K2CO3 electrolyte (pH 7). High-resolution transmission electron microscopy images of thick Cu2O under CO2RR for 2 min (C) with corresponding fast Fourier transform (Inset) and 1 h (D) with corresponding fast Fourier transform (Inset); fragmented Cu-based nanoparticles with lower crystallinity were observed over 1 h CO2RR. (E) FEs of CO2RR toward H2 (gray), CO (gold), methane (black), ethylene (pink), ethanol (blue), formic acid (orange), and others: acetate, ethylene glycol, and 1-propanol (yellow) for Cu and thick Cu2O at ?1 VRHE. (F) Partial current densities toward H2, CO, methane, formic acid, ethylene, ethanol, and others: allyl alcohol; n-propanol, normalized by electrochemically active surface area over Cu (purple); and thick Cu2O (orange) for 1 h CO2RR at ?1 VRHE in CO2-saturated 0.1 M K2CO3 electrolyte (pH 7). Average values in E and F are based on triplicates, and the errors correspond to the SEM of data points from individual samples in SI Appendix, Table S3.
It appears that copper (I) oxide is essential for producing hydrocarbons electrochemically and improves the yield over the production of hydrogen. Once the oxide is reduced, the product is more or less just hydrogen. The electrodes can be regenerated by simply exposing them to air, albeit for extended periods.
Regrettably I don't have much time to go into the details.
Hydrogen of course, can be converted to useful fuels via Fischer Tropsch chemistry (for petroleum like fuels) or fuels superior to petroleum, the best of which is dimethyl ether, a highly flexible and easily transportable fuel. It is not, however, despite decades of stupid rhetoric that still goes on and on and on and on, a useful consumer fuel: The infrastructure for so utilizing it would be expensive, unsustainable, and frankly dangerous. Hydrogen use should be limited to its already important realm as a useful captive intermediate in the chemical industry.
Direct reduction of carbonates to carbon fuels with water as the hydrogen donor is probably a good idea, again, only under the thermodynamic constraint that the electricity so utilized is a side product of other processes, represented "captured" exergy, available to be dispatched to grids on an "as needed basis."
Note that Faradaic efficiency is not the same as thermodynamic efficiency. Faradaic efficiency can be thought of as the fraction of electrons that end up in the product or in this case the products. The overall thermodynamic efficiency can be thought of as the product of the Faradaic efficiency and the Voltage efficiency, the latter representing the overvoltage required to drive the reaction. Essentially this is the extra energy to over come electrical resistance in the systems and represents energy lost as heat.
It will be interesting to see how nanostructured materials may be applied to further move these kinds of systems to ethylene to sequester carbon as polymeric material and to eliminate the use of dangerous fossil fuels.
Have a nice day tomorrow.
June 30, 2022
There's the confusion between power and energy, the misrepresentation of what solar energy provides by citing peak power rather than energy. 707 "GW" sounds impressive until one does some rudimentary calculations. It's widely reported, and has been known by many people, that a period of time known as "night" exists. If 707 GW of power were available for 365.25 days/year, 86400 seconds per day (24 hours) then the output of 707 GW would be in units of energy, not power, 22.3 Exajoules of energy, but since the sun goes down, because the sun is rarely fixed in the sky except in rather absurd Bible stories, the actual capacity utilization - I'm being generous - is 25% in ideal places where the weather isn't too bad. This works out to 5.5 Exajoules on a planet that now uses roughly 600 Exajoules per year. This miserable result comes after 50 years of wild cheering and the expenditure of trillions of dollars.
The authors calculate however, if, by magic we could make air pollution just go away using our wonderful solar energy infrastructure, or at least, import poor people to walk through our growing solar deserts with bottles of Windex and paper towels, our solar infrastructure could produce (gasp) another 10.4 TWh - now they use a derived unit of energy - in addition to the trivial and useless amounts we now derive from this fantasy that has failed to address climate change.
How much energy is 10.4 TWh? It's 0.0371 EJ. The fractional amount of energy produced compared to 600 EJ consumed each year (and rising) is 0.0000618. Let's make it more impressive by using "percent talk, multiplying by 100. It works out to 0.00618%.
Unfortunately in places like Germany, "reliance" (or the pretense of reliance) on solar energy has led to the increased use of coal, which is a major contributor to particulate matter, in fact, the particulate matter is the chief means by which burning coal kills people, not the only mechanism, but the primary one.
Nevertheless, Germany probably should import some poor people with bottles of Windex and paper towels. Otherwise they might look foolish.
The world has gone insane.
Reducing the particulates that settle on solar cells might slow their degradation, produce 10.3 TWh.
Here's a pretty delusional paper in a scientific journal: Source Sector Mitigation of Solar Energy Generation Losses Attributable to Particulate Matter Pollution Fei Yao and Paul I. Palmer Environmental Science & Technology 2022 56 (12), 8619-8628
It begins with the lie that solar energy is free, except that it's expensive as hell - as power rates in Germany show - when the sun isn't shining, since it requires redundant systems and wired infrastructure to do anything.
Our harnessing energy provided for free by the sun has a low environmental footprint and will therefore play a role in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and mitigating the harmful impacts of climate change. (1,2) A variety of technologies convert sunlight to usable electricity, but currently the most common approach is to use solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. The past decade (2011 to 2020) has seen an enormous increase in the worldwide solar PV installed capacity, from 72 to 707 GW. (3) Solar PV is expected to dominate growth in the renewable energy sector for the foreseeable future. (4) However, particulate matter (PM), a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets suspended in the air, represents a major barrier to maximizing the performance of solar PV technologies and therefore compromises our ability to generate clean energy. Atmospheric PM scatters and absorbs the solar radiation that would otherwise reach the solar panels. (5?7) PM deposited on the solar panels further impedes the solar radiation being received by the PV semiconductor material. (8?10)
There's the confusion between power and energy, the misrepresentation of what solar energy provides by citing peak power rather than energy. 707 "GW" sounds impressive until one does some rudimentary calculations. It's widely reported, and has been known by many people, that a period of time known as "night" exists. If 707 GW of power were available for 365.25 days/year, 86400 seconds per day (24 hours) then the output of 707 GW would be in units of energy, not power, 22.3 Exajoules of energy, but since the sun goes down, because the sun is rarely fixed in the sky except in rather absurd Bible stories, the actual capacity utilization - I'm being generous - is 25% in ideal places where the weather isn't too bad. This works out to 5.5 Exajoules on a planet that now uses roughly 600 Exajoules per year. This miserable result comes after 50 years of wild cheering and the expenditure of trillions of dollars.
The authors calculate however, if, by magic we could make air pollution just go away using our wonderful solar energy infrastructure, or at least, import poor people to walk through our growing solar deserts with bottles of Windex and paper towels, our solar infrastructure could produce (gasp) another 10.4 TWh - now they use a derived unit of energy - in addition to the trivial and useless amounts we now derive from this fantasy that has failed to address climate change.
How much energy is 10.4 TWh? It's 0.0371 EJ. The fractional amount of energy produced compared to 600 EJ consumed each year (and rising) is 0.0000618. Let's make it more impressive by using "percent talk, multiplying by 100. It works out to 0.00618%.
Unfortunately in places like Germany, "reliance" (or the pretense of reliance) on solar energy has led to the increased use of coal, which is a major contributor to particulate matter, in fact, the particulate matter is the chief means by which burning coal kills people, not the only mechanism, but the primary one.
Nevertheless, Germany probably should import some poor people with bottles of Windex and paper towels. Otherwise they might look foolish.
The world has gone insane.
June 29, 2022
Another news article on the same topic is only available in German apparently:
WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNGSINSTITUT
Deutschland bei Energie extrem verwundbar
To be perfectly honest, it has been many, many years since I had to read or translate German, and my German was never really great, but I gather that it says essentially the same thing as is reported in the Berliner Zeitung.
The rumor is that so called "renewable energy" is "cheap" and nuclear energy is "too expensive."
Don't look behind that curtain to see that the highest priced electricity in Europe is that of Denmark, followed closely by Germany.
I'll chalk that one up along side the similar claim that wind and solar are faster to build than nuclear, even if, after half a century of wild cheering and the expenditure of trillions of dollars, the wind and solar industry only managed to produce 10.4 EJ of energy according to the last issue of the World Energy Outlook, a little more than 1/3 of the energy produced by the nuclear industry, 29.4 Exajoules, produced in a climate of hostility and highly selective criticism.
Germany is burning coal, pretty much continuously, and dumping the dangerous fossil fuel waste directly into the planetary atmosphere. This they say is not "too dangerous," even if they financed Putin for decades, buying Russian gas, oil, and coal, essentially funding his war. The Ukrainians may feel, with justification, that in fact that practice proved rather dangerous to them.
Um, France, isn't.
Have a nice evening.
Auf Deutch and in English: Germany Is Becoming An Electricity "High Price Island."
Two articles, one in German, one in English about the cost of electricity in Germany compared with the rest of Europe.
In English, or if you prefer in German: Energy: No country in Europe is as vulnerable as Germany
It is well known that Germany depends on Russian gas supplies. But how does the economy fare in this respect compared to other industrialized countries? Not good, sums up the Mannheim ZEW.
According to a study, Germany 's energy supply is particularly vulnerable in an international comparison - both to rising prices and to supply bottlenecks.
In the analysis published on Tuesday, the Mannheim-based economic research institute ZEW comes to the conclusion that the Federal Republic of Germany is becoming a "high-price island" together with the Netherlands when it comes to electricity supply. In terms of susceptibility to missing deliveries, Germany is therefore particularly vulnerable, together with Italy.
According to the ZEW, both factors endanger competitiveness and make Germany unattractive for industrial sectors with high energy consumption. The client was the Foundation for Family Businesses. The ZEW took a look at the energy supply of 21 industrialized countries from the point of view of how much the national economies would suffer from price increases and supply bottlenecks. The economists compared 16 EU countries, as well as the USA, Japan, Canada, Great Britain and Switzerland.
According to this, the security of supply of the three major non-European economies is not endangered at all because of the Ukraine war. The price increases there have so far been "extremely moderate or non-existent," says the paper.
In Europeis therefore the vast majority of countries with noenergy suppliesless vulnerable than Germany, which is particularly dependent on Russian gas.
Striking differences within Europe
"The price effects of the energy crisis for electricity and gas are largely limited to European locations," explained study author Friedrich Heinemann. There are striking differences within Europe. "Germany, together with the Netherlands , is increasingly becoming a high-price island." According to a ZEW analysis, electricity prices have not increased significantly in France or Switzerland, for example.
According to a study, Germany 's energy supply is particularly vulnerable in an international comparison - both to rising prices and to supply bottlenecks.
In the analysis published on Tuesday, the Mannheim-based economic research institute ZEW comes to the conclusion that the Federal Republic of Germany is becoming a "high-price island" together with the Netherlands when it comes to electricity supply. In terms of susceptibility to missing deliveries, Germany is therefore particularly vulnerable, together with Italy.
According to the ZEW, both factors endanger competitiveness and make Germany unattractive for industrial sectors with high energy consumption. The client was the Foundation for Family Businesses. The ZEW took a look at the energy supply of 21 industrialized countries from the point of view of how much the national economies would suffer from price increases and supply bottlenecks. The economists compared 16 EU countries, as well as the USA, Japan, Canada, Great Britain and Switzerland.
According to this, the security of supply of the three major non-European economies is not endangered at all because of the Ukraine war. The price increases there have so far been "extremely moderate or non-existent," says the paper.
In Europeis therefore the vast majority of countries with noenergy suppliesless vulnerable than Germany, which is particularly dependent on Russian gas.
Striking differences within Europe
"The price effects of the energy crisis for electricity and gas are largely limited to European locations," explained study author Friedrich Heinemann. There are striking differences within Europe. "Germany, together with the Netherlands , is increasingly becoming a high-price island." According to a ZEW analysis, electricity prices have not increased significantly in France or Switzerland, for example.
Another news article on the same topic is only available in German apparently:
WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNGSINSTITUT
Deutschland bei Energie extrem verwundbar
To be perfectly honest, it has been many, many years since I had to read or translate German, and my German was never really great, but I gather that it says essentially the same thing as is reported in the Berliner Zeitung.
Dass Deutschland von russischen Gaslieferungen abhängt, ist bekannt. Doch wie steht die Wirtschaft in dieser Hinsicht im Vergleich zu anderen Industriestaaten da? Nicht gut, resümiert das Mannheimer ZEW.
Die Energieversorgung Deutschlands ist einer Studie zufolge im internationalen Vergleich besonders anfällig - sowohl für steigende Preise als auch für Lieferengpässe.
Das Mannheimer Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut ZEW kommt in der am Dienstag veröffentlichten Analyse zu dem Schluss, dass die Bundesrepublik bei der Stromversorgung gemeinsam mit den Niederlanden zu einer «Hochpreisinsel» wird. Was die Anfälligkeit für ausbleibende Lieferungen betrifft, ist Deutschland demnach gemeinsam mit Italien besonders verwundbar.
Beide Faktoren gefährden laut ZEW die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und machen Deutschland für Industriezweige mit hohem Energieverbrauch unattraktiv. Auftraggeber war die Stiftung Familienunternehmen. Das ZEW nahm die Energieversorgung von 21 Industriestaaten unter den Gesichtspunkten in den Blick, wie sehr die Volkswirtschaften unter Preisanstieg und Lieferengpässen leiden würden. Die Ökonomen verglichen 16 EU-Staaten, außerdem die USA, Japan, Kanada, Großbritannien und die Schweiz.
Demnach ist die Versorgungssicherheit der drei außereuropäischen großen Volkswirtschaften wegen des Ukraine-Kriegs gar nicht gefährdet. Die Preissteigerungen seien dort bislang «ausgesprochen moderat ausgefallen oder ganz ausgeblieben», heißt es in dem Papier.
In Europa ist demnach die große Mehrheit der Länder bei ausbleibenden Energielieferungen weniger verwundbar als das von russischem Gas besonders abhängige Deutschland.
Markante Unterschiede innerhalb Europas
«Die Preiseffekte der Energiekrise bei Strom und Gas sind weitgehend auf europäische Standorte beschränkt», erklärte Studienautor Friedrich Heinemann. Innerhalb Europas gebe es markante Unterschiede. «Deutschland wird zusammen mit den Niederlanden immer stärker zu einer Hochpreisinsel.» Nicht nennenswert gestiegen sind die Strompreise laut ZEW-Analyse etwa in Frankreich oder der Schweiz.
Die Energieversorgung Deutschlands ist einer Studie zufolge im internationalen Vergleich besonders anfällig - sowohl für steigende Preise als auch für Lieferengpässe.
Das Mannheimer Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut ZEW kommt in der am Dienstag veröffentlichten Analyse zu dem Schluss, dass die Bundesrepublik bei der Stromversorgung gemeinsam mit den Niederlanden zu einer «Hochpreisinsel» wird. Was die Anfälligkeit für ausbleibende Lieferungen betrifft, ist Deutschland demnach gemeinsam mit Italien besonders verwundbar.
Beide Faktoren gefährden laut ZEW die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und machen Deutschland für Industriezweige mit hohem Energieverbrauch unattraktiv. Auftraggeber war die Stiftung Familienunternehmen. Das ZEW nahm die Energieversorgung von 21 Industriestaaten unter den Gesichtspunkten in den Blick, wie sehr die Volkswirtschaften unter Preisanstieg und Lieferengpässen leiden würden. Die Ökonomen verglichen 16 EU-Staaten, außerdem die USA, Japan, Kanada, Großbritannien und die Schweiz.
Demnach ist die Versorgungssicherheit der drei außereuropäischen großen Volkswirtschaften wegen des Ukraine-Kriegs gar nicht gefährdet. Die Preissteigerungen seien dort bislang «ausgesprochen moderat ausgefallen oder ganz ausgeblieben», heißt es in dem Papier.
In Europa ist demnach die große Mehrheit der Länder bei ausbleibenden Energielieferungen weniger verwundbar als das von russischem Gas besonders abhängige Deutschland.
Markante Unterschiede innerhalb Europas
«Die Preiseffekte der Energiekrise bei Strom und Gas sind weitgehend auf europäische Standorte beschränkt», erklärte Studienautor Friedrich Heinemann. Innerhalb Europas gebe es markante Unterschiede. «Deutschland wird zusammen mit den Niederlanden immer stärker zu einer Hochpreisinsel.» Nicht nennenswert gestiegen sind die Strompreise laut ZEW-Analyse etwa in Frankreich oder der Schweiz.
The rumor is that so called "renewable energy" is "cheap" and nuclear energy is "too expensive."
Don't look behind that curtain to see that the highest priced electricity in Europe is that of Denmark, followed closely by Germany.
I'll chalk that one up along side the similar claim that wind and solar are faster to build than nuclear, even if, after half a century of wild cheering and the expenditure of trillions of dollars, the wind and solar industry only managed to produce 10.4 EJ of energy according to the last issue of the World Energy Outlook, a little more than 1/3 of the energy produced by the nuclear industry, 29.4 Exajoules, produced in a climate of hostility and highly selective criticism.
Germany is burning coal, pretty much continuously, and dumping the dangerous fossil fuel waste directly into the planetary atmosphere. This they say is not "too dangerous," even if they financed Putin for decades, buying Russian gas, oil, and coal, essentially funding his war. The Ukrainians may feel, with justification, that in fact that practice proved rather dangerous to them.
Um, France, isn't.
Have a nice evening.
June 29, 2022
My sons swear they never knew Cassidy Hutchinson.
She apparently went to high school with my sons, although she wasn't at either of their grade levels. They both say they never knew her. It is, the only way they're like Trump, except I think they're telling the truth.
It's kind of disturbing to learn that in my town there is a person who served the likes of vicious racists such as Cruz, Scalise, Meadows and Trump, her important expiation in testifying aside.
She sort of looks familiar but there is a sort of generic look to women of that age in this town.
For the last two decades, this town has been blue.
June 26, 2022
Subtitle:
Excerpt:
Unbelievable...
But...but...but...but, Three Mile Island.
In Jacobabad, Pakistan, a Heat Wave Is Pushing the Limits of Human Livability
In Jacobabad, One of the Hottest Cities on the Planet, a Heat Wave Is Pushing the Limits of Human LivabilitySubtitle:
Temperatures in this landlocked city in Pakistan’s Sindh Province crossed 100 degrees for 51 straight days in March, and reached 123.8 degrees earlier last month.
Excerpt:
JACOBABAD, Pakistan—Sajjad Ali lies semi-conscious in the heatstroke center at Civil Hospital here, an intravenous line in his wrist delivering fluids to his dehydrated body.
Ali, 15, operates a tractor in the fields on the outskirts of Jacobabad—one of the hottest cities on Earth—and was carried to the hospital after his temperature remained at 102 degrees Fahrenheit for a week.
On the opposite side of the ward, kept at a cool 78 degrees by a whirring air conditioner, Muhammad Musa occupies another bed, its cobalt blue frame contrasting starkly with his face, which is drained of color. A farm worker in Jacobabad’s rice fields, Musa, 65, arrived with a 102 degree temperature, body aches and severe dehydration.
Jacobabad, a landlocked city in Pakistan’s Sindh Province nearly 340 miles north of Karachi, is pushing the limits of human livability on a warming planet. Since the beginning of March, an unprecedented heat wave has gripped India and Pakistan, affecting more than a billion people on the subcontinent. And Jacobabad has been among the cities worst hit, experiencing temperatures in excess of 100 degrees for 51 straight days. Last month, the temperature here reached 123.8 degrees and before that, reached 122 degrees on three separate occasions...
...The 2022 heat wave in South Asia is already estimated to have caused more than 90 deaths in India and Pakistan, and to have resulted in glacial melts in northern Pakistan and reduced wheat crop yields in India. According to a recent report published by the World Weather Attribution Initiative, the onset of the heat wave was made 30 times more likely by climate change.
Back at the heatstroke center, Bashir Ahmed, a duty nurse, asked Ali how he was feeling. But the 15-year-old struggled to gather enough energy to speak a full sentence, his lips dry and half parted.
Ahmed did not seem worried. The medical staff in the hospital is not easily phased by heat stroke patients. In May alone, more than 100 people were admitted to the center for heat-related illnesses, but no deaths have been recorded so far.
Two hours later, both patients were recovering. Musa’s body temperature had gone down to 100 degrees, but he would still need another hour to regain enough energy to sit up. Despite the fever, this was the first time in weeks he had been in a room with temperatures low enough for him to relax.
Musa kept a checkered black and white linen scarf over his eyes and drifted into a light sleep. He is among 70 percent of Jacobabad’s population of roughly 200,000 who live below the poverty line, primarily farm workers and daily wage earners in factories or brick kilns...
Ali, 15, operates a tractor in the fields on the outskirts of Jacobabad—one of the hottest cities on Earth—and was carried to the hospital after his temperature remained at 102 degrees Fahrenheit for a week.
On the opposite side of the ward, kept at a cool 78 degrees by a whirring air conditioner, Muhammad Musa occupies another bed, its cobalt blue frame contrasting starkly with his face, which is drained of color. A farm worker in Jacobabad’s rice fields, Musa, 65, arrived with a 102 degree temperature, body aches and severe dehydration.
Jacobabad, a landlocked city in Pakistan’s Sindh Province nearly 340 miles north of Karachi, is pushing the limits of human livability on a warming planet. Since the beginning of March, an unprecedented heat wave has gripped India and Pakistan, affecting more than a billion people on the subcontinent. And Jacobabad has been among the cities worst hit, experiencing temperatures in excess of 100 degrees for 51 straight days. Last month, the temperature here reached 123.8 degrees and before that, reached 122 degrees on three separate occasions...
...The 2022 heat wave in South Asia is already estimated to have caused more than 90 deaths in India and Pakistan, and to have resulted in glacial melts in northern Pakistan and reduced wheat crop yields in India. According to a recent report published by the World Weather Attribution Initiative, the onset of the heat wave was made 30 times more likely by climate change.
Back at the heatstroke center, Bashir Ahmed, a duty nurse, asked Ali how he was feeling. But the 15-year-old struggled to gather enough energy to speak a full sentence, his lips dry and half parted.
Ahmed did not seem worried. The medical staff in the hospital is not easily phased by heat stroke patients. In May alone, more than 100 people were admitted to the center for heat-related illnesses, but no deaths have been recorded so far.
Two hours later, both patients were recovering. Musa’s body temperature had gone down to 100 degrees, but he would still need another hour to regain enough energy to sit up. Despite the fever, this was the first time in weeks he had been in a room with temperatures low enough for him to relax.
Musa kept a checkered black and white linen scarf over his eyes and drifted into a light sleep. He is among 70 percent of Jacobabad’s population of roughly 200,000 who live below the poverty line, primarily farm workers and daily wage earners in factories or brick kilns...
Unbelievable...
But...but...but...but, Three Mile Island.
June 26, 2022
That's right Minister Habek, so called "Green."
You'd rather burn coal than go nuclear against climate change, because the clothes are off the Energiewende Emperor. Every living thing on this planet pays when people burn coal for no other reason than to satisfy their own ignorance.
As Russia cuts gas, German industry grapples with painful choices.
I was directed to this article by my UK based CarbonBrief newsfeed.
As Russia cuts gas, German industry grapples with painful choices
Excerpt:
FRANKFURT, June 23 (Reuters) - The German companies that drive Europe's biggest economy are contemplating painful cuts to their output and resorting to polluting forms of energy previously considered unthinkable as they adjust to the prospect of running out of Russian gas.
Reduced Russian deliveries have accelerated efforts across German industry to find alternatives to keep factories running and limit the economic cost.
Chemical giant BASF (BASFn.DE) is working out which factories could cut output first and rival Lanxess (LXSG.DE) may delay shutting some coal-fired power plants.
As Gazprom (GAZP.MM) cut flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany by 60% last week, supplier to Proctor & Gamble (PG.N) Kelheim Fibre weighed a decision to spend millions on retrofitting its gas power plant to run on oil.
The 86-year old Bavarian-based supplier of viscose fibres used in hygiene products and filtration has asked the state to help fund the retrofit that would cost at least 2 million euros ($2.10 million).
"The economic situation has continued to worsen and our available reserves are rapidly depleting," executive Wolfgang Ott said.
"Oil has only one advantage: supply is secure," he added, saying a plant retrofit would take 6-8 months.
Ott added the group was also in talks about credit lines from state-lender KfW (KFW.UL), which has drawn up a support scheme for companies hit by a surge in gas prices.
Aurubis (NAFG.DE), Europe's top copper smelter, said it is also looking for substitutes, but that adapting power plants is expensive and time-consuming.
The companies are among the country's energy-intense firms that pay 17 billion euros for energy each year.
Until Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24, they were focused on reducing carbon emissions in line with Germany's efforts to meet EU climate goals.
Now the overwhelming priority is survival, even if that means a slow-down in efforts to tackle global warming.
Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the Greens, said a higher reliance on coal as an energy source would cause Germany's carbon footprint to grow.
"This cannot in any way please anybody who walks through today's world with open eyes," he said...
Reduced Russian deliveries have accelerated efforts across German industry to find alternatives to keep factories running and limit the economic cost.
Chemical giant BASF (BASFn.DE) is working out which factories could cut output first and rival Lanxess (LXSG.DE) may delay shutting some coal-fired power plants.
As Gazprom (GAZP.MM) cut flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany by 60% last week, supplier to Proctor & Gamble (PG.N) Kelheim Fibre weighed a decision to spend millions on retrofitting its gas power plant to run on oil.
The 86-year old Bavarian-based supplier of viscose fibres used in hygiene products and filtration has asked the state to help fund the retrofit that would cost at least 2 million euros ($2.10 million).
"The economic situation has continued to worsen and our available reserves are rapidly depleting," executive Wolfgang Ott said.
"Oil has only one advantage: supply is secure," he added, saying a plant retrofit would take 6-8 months.
Ott added the group was also in talks about credit lines from state-lender KfW (KFW.UL), which has drawn up a support scheme for companies hit by a surge in gas prices.
Aurubis (NAFG.DE), Europe's top copper smelter, said it is also looking for substitutes, but that adapting power plants is expensive and time-consuming.
The companies are among the country's energy-intense firms that pay 17 billion euros for energy each year.
Until Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24, they were focused on reducing carbon emissions in line with Germany's efforts to meet EU climate goals.
Now the overwhelming priority is survival, even if that means a slow-down in efforts to tackle global warming.
Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the Greens, said a higher reliance on coal as an energy source would cause Germany's carbon footprint to grow.
"This cannot in any way please anybody who walks through today's world with open eyes," he said...
That's right Minister Habek, so called "Green."
You'd rather burn coal than go nuclear against climate change, because the clothes are off the Energiewende Emperor. Every living thing on this planet pays when people burn coal for no other reason than to satisfy their own ignorance.
June 26, 2022
My 94 year old step mother had to cancel my visit to her. (We'll go in July.)
We're a little sad, but tomorrow, we'll go to MOMA to feel better.
MOMA has Max Beckmann's Departure:
It's a huge triptych, savage painting, painted in Germany just at the dawn of the Nazi era.
One stands in front of it and the feeling is completely overwhelming.
Beckmann became a refugee, escaped to Holland, only to face Holland being captured by the Nazis.
He survived, and died in New York in 1954, just blocks from MOMA.
The painting, I think, is about survival, and in these times of rising horror, it's worth seeing again.
Unfortunately MOMA doesn't always have it on display. I hope they do tomorrow.
We'll see my Stepmother in July. She's survived quite a bit herself.
June 25, 2022
Nevertheless, let's all sing Kumbaya and make promises we have no intention of keeping:
Why call it "clean energy?" It's, um, filthy. The low energy to mass density is appalling and unsustainable.
Are we really only going to mine to make this junk when the weather is nice and cooperates, when the wind is blowing at just the right speed and the sun is shining brightly and everyone shows up to work in the solar hydrogen fueled trucks whenever it is?
The poster boy for the energy is Germany, the country that financed most of the war in Ukraine. They can't burn coal fast enough as of this week, Late in June, 2022, after decades of loudly proclaimed bullshit about Energiewende for decades. It's not an energy turnaround. It's a coal driven disaster.
Climate change will only be addressed when we stop lying to ourselves.
These are serious, increasingly disturbing times, religious bigots in office for life on the far right legislating from a corrupt and illegitimate bench, savage dictators on wars of conquest, and, on top of it all - whether we concentrate on it or not - a collapsing planet.
Again, we need to stop lying to ourselves.
Have a nice weekend.
Why call it "clean energy" given the statement of the problem?
People keep talking about the so called "energy transition" to what is advertised as "clean energy."
It's become an almost Pavlovian chant, but the realities are beginning, too slowly perhaps, to sink in. Despite trillions of dollars thrown at solar and wind energy in this century, we are more dependent on dangerous fossil fuels than ever. The reality is that there is no "clean energy transition."
We've been seeing concentrations of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide rising at an accelerating rate while we chase more and more after the objects of the increasingly idiotic chants.
I assume that many people know this, including many in the scientific community where, nonetheless, thousands upon thousands upon thousands of papers offer suggestions on what we'll do with all this solar and wind energy we really haven't seen, are not seeing, and won't see. One needs to genuflect to the alabaster idol of so called "renewable energy" to get grants, I suppose.
But a little noise is being made, tenuous noise so as not to offend the idol, about some realities.
Consider this editorial in the current issue of Science:
The matter of a clean energy future
A clean energy transition will create jobs, promote energy independence, improve public health, and, ultimately, mitigate climate change. But getting to this new future will require more than just phasing out fossil fuels. The production of a wide range of energy-relevant materials—lithium, cobalt, and nickel for batteries; rare earth elements for wind turbines and electric motors; silicon for solar panels; and copper to expand the electric grid—must be scaled up substantially. Mobilizing these materials without reproducing the environmental harms and social inequities of the fossil fuel status quo poses an urgent challenge.
Studies project that producing the materials to enable a clean energy transition will be a massive undertaking. The International Energy Agency forecasts that keeping the world on a path compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Accord will require expanding production of energy-relevant materials six-fold between 2020 and 2040, to 43 million tons per year. At first glance, that may seem to pale in comparison to the fossil fuel industries, which produced roughly 15 billion tons of coal, oil, and natural gas globally in 2020 alone and added 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere when burned.
But the transition will be even more difficult than it first appears. Nickel, cobalt, and copper and many other energy-relevant materials occur in low-grade ores, which entail far more mining, processing, and waste than fossil fuels. Securing the millions of tons of finished materials needed will require mining hundreds or thousands of times more raw ore. Although this transition will ultimately lower greenhouse gas emissions, especially as more renewable energy powers mining processes, it will require processing metal ores at a scale that rivals the material throughput of today’s fossil fuel industries.
The potential harms of such a transition are considerable. Large-scale mining affects ecosystems, threatens water supplies, and is sometimes linked to poor working conditions, corruption, and human rights abuses...
Studies project that producing the materials to enable a clean energy transition will be a massive undertaking. The International Energy Agency forecasts that keeping the world on a path compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Accord will require expanding production of energy-relevant materials six-fold between 2020 and 2040, to 43 million tons per year. At first glance, that may seem to pale in comparison to the fossil fuel industries, which produced roughly 15 billion tons of coal, oil, and natural gas globally in 2020 alone and added 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere when burned.
But the transition will be even more difficult than it first appears. Nickel, cobalt, and copper and many other energy-relevant materials occur in low-grade ores, which entail far more mining, processing, and waste than fossil fuels. Securing the millions of tons of finished materials needed will require mining hundreds or thousands of times more raw ore. Although this transition will ultimately lower greenhouse gas emissions, especially as more renewable energy powers mining processes, it will require processing metal ores at a scale that rivals the material throughput of today’s fossil fuel industries.
The potential harms of such a transition are considerable. Large-scale mining affects ecosystems, threatens water supplies, and is sometimes linked to poor working conditions, corruption, and human rights abuses...
Nevertheless, let's all sing Kumbaya and make promises we have no intention of keeping:
...But scaling up mining to support a clean energy transition also offers the opportunity to reform materials production in ways that are both socially and environmentally just. Wealthier countries, which have often outsourced mineral extraction abroad, need to help shoulder these burdens and model responsible approaches to development...
Why call it "clean energy?" It's, um, filthy. The low energy to mass density is appalling and unsustainable.
Are we really only going to mine to make this junk when the weather is nice and cooperates, when the wind is blowing at just the right speed and the sun is shining brightly and everyone shows up to work in the solar hydrogen fueled trucks whenever it is?
The poster boy for the energy is Germany, the country that financed most of the war in Ukraine. They can't burn coal fast enough as of this week, Late in June, 2022, after decades of loudly proclaimed bullshit about Energiewende for decades. It's not an energy turnaround. It's a coal driven disaster.
Climate change will only be addressed when we stop lying to ourselves.
These are serious, increasingly disturbing times, religious bigots in office for life on the far right legislating from a corrupt and illegitimate bench, savage dictators on wars of conquest, and, on top of it all - whether we concentrate on it or not - a collapsing planet.
Again, we need to stop lying to ourselves.
Have a nice weekend.
June 25, 2022
My son mentioned this helium problem to me in the context of his readings as he prepares to join a nuclear materials lab.
I'm unaware of the way that nickel is involved, but I note that fusion neutrons are an order of magnitude higher energy than fission neutrons, and I did take a look at some of the cross sections of the Ni-x[n,?]Fe-y reactions in these energetic regions at the BNL Nuclear Data website. (Generally I am more familiar with the capture cross sections of lower energy fission neutrons, and seldom consider [n,?] reaction cross sections in my general reading.
Nevertheless these cross sections seem to be appreciable, not large exactly but appreciable. I have always understood the neutron fluxes of fusion reactors to be relatively low, but this said, over long periods of time, it may perhaps be an issue. I don't know.
Some sample cross sections for some nickel isotopes for the [n,?] reaction are shown below. Fusion neutrons have an energy of 14.1 MeV on the right side of the graphics, but as they travel through matter, particularly lithium blankets intended to breed tritium, they will be moderated to some extent, and thus the regions at the center matter, particularly in the case of Ni-59. Ni-59 is radioactive and decays to cobalt's only stable isotope, Co-59, but has a long half life. It will be formed by [n,?] reactions in Ni-58, the most common isotope in natural nickel.
[n,?] cross sections:
Will Fusion Plants Have Worse Reliability Problems Than The Disastrous "Renewable" Energy Scheme?
Let me preface my remarks here by saying I support fusion research, in particular for the personal benefit this research has provided me in the form of lectures I've attended at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (This may be self-serving, but nonetheless it's incumbent on me to state this honestly.)
This said, in any form, fusion energy plants will not arrive in time to arrest the current global disaster in climate change which I personally regard as having arrived because of fear and ignorance. Anyone who is aware of my writings will know that I contend there is an exact equivalence between the malignity of anti-vaxxers and anti-nukes, although anti-nukes have certainly led to the death of more people, given the death toll associated with the continued use of dangerous fossil fuels, a situation so called "renewable energy" has experimentally been shown to be useless to address.
Unreliable energy cannot, under any circumstances, be clean or sustainable, nor can it function in the absence of dangerous fossil fuels.
The time to "shit or get off the pot" as the colorful metaphor states has come for fusion energy; the ITER in France will fire up soon and it will establish the operational parameters of fusion systems, but will not generate any electricity, as it's a research tool.
It is thus, with interest, I came across this news item in Science: Breakdowns could plague fusion power plants
I'm not sure if it's behind a fire wall or not, so here are some excerpts:
For decades, achieving controlled fusion was a physics challenge. But now, as the ITER megaproject gears up to demonstrate fusion’s potential as an energy source—and startup companies race to beat it—the practical roadblocks to fusion power plants are coming into focus. One is a looming shortage of tritium fuel (see main story, p. 1372). Others could prevent reactors from ever running reliably—a necessity if fusion is to provide a constant “baseload” to complement intermittent solar and wind power.
Some of fusion’s fitfulness is innate to the design of doughnut-shaped tokamak reactors. The magnetic field that confines the ultrahot, energy-producing plasma is generated in part by the charged particles themselves, as they flow around the vessel. That plasma current in turn is induced by pulses of electrical current in a coil of wire in the doughnut’s hole, each lasting a few minutes at most. In between pulses the magnetic field ebbs, interrupting tokamak operations—and power delivery. The repetitive starts and stops of the reactor’s powerful magnetic fields also generate mechanical stresses that could eventually tear the machine apart.
In theory, the beams of particles and microwaves used to heat the plasma can also drive the plasma current. So can a quirk of plasma physics called the bootstrap effect. Near the edge of the plasma, a sharp pressure gradient causes the particles to spiral in such a way that they interfere with each other and push themselves—by their own bootstraps—around the ring.
Using a combination of beams and bootstrap, researchers at ITER think they can get hourlong runs. But the bootstrap effect works best at high pressures and can push the plasma out of control, potentially damaging the reactor, says Alberto Loarte, head of ITER’s science division...
...The flood of high-energy neutrons produced by fusion reactions pose another threat. The neutrons are a “double-edged sword,” says materials scientist Andy London of the UK Atomic Energy Authority. On the one hand, they dump heat in the reactor wall that ultimately generates electricity, and they can bombard lithium to breed tritium fuel. But they can also penetrate the reactor walls and lodge in surrounding steel structures, knocking atoms out of position and weakening the material. Nuclei in the structures sometimes absorb the neutrons, creating radioactive isotopes that do further damage. For example, neutron bombardment can turn the nickel in many steel alloys into a form that gives off helium, causing the steel to swell perceptibly. “The metal turns into a sponge,” London says...
...Fixing damaged or weakened reactor components will be slow. Because of the hostile radioactive environment, repairs will rely on robots or remote handling arms that can navigate the narrow access ports of a tokamak. Mohamed Abdou, a nuclear engineer at the University of California, Los Angeles, believes future reactors may operate less than 5% of the time.
Compare this, he says, with today’s fission reactors. They can keep running even when individual fuel rods fail. Cranes can swap out fuel rods in just a couple of days. Availability can be as high as 90%. Achieving something similar for fusion will be “very challenging,” Abdou says.
Some of fusion’s fitfulness is innate to the design of doughnut-shaped tokamak reactors. The magnetic field that confines the ultrahot, energy-producing plasma is generated in part by the charged particles themselves, as they flow around the vessel. That plasma current in turn is induced by pulses of electrical current in a coil of wire in the doughnut’s hole, each lasting a few minutes at most. In between pulses the magnetic field ebbs, interrupting tokamak operations—and power delivery. The repetitive starts and stops of the reactor’s powerful magnetic fields also generate mechanical stresses that could eventually tear the machine apart.
In theory, the beams of particles and microwaves used to heat the plasma can also drive the plasma current. So can a quirk of plasma physics called the bootstrap effect. Near the edge of the plasma, a sharp pressure gradient causes the particles to spiral in such a way that they interfere with each other and push themselves—by their own bootstraps—around the ring.
Using a combination of beams and bootstrap, researchers at ITER think they can get hourlong runs. But the bootstrap effect works best at high pressures and can push the plasma out of control, potentially damaging the reactor, says Alberto Loarte, head of ITER’s science division...
...The flood of high-energy neutrons produced by fusion reactions pose another threat. The neutrons are a “double-edged sword,” says materials scientist Andy London of the UK Atomic Energy Authority. On the one hand, they dump heat in the reactor wall that ultimately generates electricity, and they can bombard lithium to breed tritium fuel. But they can also penetrate the reactor walls and lodge in surrounding steel structures, knocking atoms out of position and weakening the material. Nuclei in the structures sometimes absorb the neutrons, creating radioactive isotopes that do further damage. For example, neutron bombardment can turn the nickel in many steel alloys into a form that gives off helium, causing the steel to swell perceptibly. “The metal turns into a sponge,” London says...
...Fixing damaged or weakened reactor components will be slow. Because of the hostile radioactive environment, repairs will rely on robots or remote handling arms that can navigate the narrow access ports of a tokamak. Mohamed Abdou, a nuclear engineer at the University of California, Los Angeles, believes future reactors may operate less than 5% of the time.
Compare this, he says, with today’s fission reactors. They can keep running even when individual fuel rods fail. Cranes can swap out fuel rods in just a couple of days. Availability can be as high as 90%. Achieving something similar for fusion will be “very challenging,” Abdou says.
My son mentioned this helium problem to me in the context of his readings as he prepares to join a nuclear materials lab.
I'm unaware of the way that nickel is involved, but I note that fusion neutrons are an order of magnitude higher energy than fission neutrons, and I did take a look at some of the cross sections of the Ni-x[n,?]Fe-y reactions in these energetic regions at the BNL Nuclear Data website. (Generally I am more familiar with the capture cross sections of lower energy fission neutrons, and seldom consider [n,?] reaction cross sections in my general reading.
Nevertheless these cross sections seem to be appreciable, not large exactly but appreciable. I have always understood the neutron fluxes of fusion reactors to be relatively low, but this said, over long periods of time, it may perhaps be an issue. I don't know.
Some sample cross sections for some nickel isotopes for the [n,?] reaction are shown below. Fusion neutrons have an energy of 14.1 MeV on the right side of the graphics, but as they travel through matter, particularly lithium blankets intended to breed tritium, they will be moderated to some extent, and thus the regions at the center matter, particularly in the case of Ni-59. Ni-59 is radioactive and decays to cobalt's only stable isotope, Co-59, but has a long half life. It will be formed by [n,?] reactions in Ni-58, the most common isotope in natural nickel.
[n,?] cross sections:
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