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Bloomberg The campaign for Britain to leave the European Union took a 10 percentage-point lead in a poll published late Friday, less than two weeks before the country votes in a referendum.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB for the Independent newspaper found 55 percent in favor of a so-called Brexit, up 4 points since a previous poll in April, with 45 percent for “Remain,” down 4 points. It’s the biggest “Leave” lead recorded by ORB in polls for the newspaper.
It’s the latest online poll to suggest an advance for the “Leave” campaign, while a YouGov survey published Monday put “Remain” narrowly ahead. Polling companies themselves have expressed doubt about the reliability of their surveys, having failed to forecast the result of last year’s British general election.
The pound slumped after the poll as doubt creeps into some investors minds that Prime Minister David Cameron will be able to pull off the biggest political gambles in recent British history. While pollsters have cautioned against over-interpreting their findings and another survey this week showed “Remain" in the lead, Cameron himself is showing signs of unease.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-10/brexit-poll-shows-leave-in-10-point-lead-two-weeks-before-vote
Stocks, Oil Sink While Dollar Rallies as Brexit Risk Ramps Up
Global stocks posted their steepest drop in four months, the dollar rallied, and bond yields slid to record lows, as investors braced for a series of events later this month that could renew turbulence in markets.
The British pound tumbled and stocks took another leg down after poll results showed a majority favor the nation leaving the European Union.
Both the MSCI All-Country World Index and S&P 500 Index wiped out weekly gains. Treasury 10-year note yields declined, as yields from Japan to Germany fell to all-time lows, before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and Britain’s referendum this month. Oil dropped to around $49 a barrel, leading commodities lower.
“It’s getting ugly,” Mark Kepner, managing director and equity trader at Themis Trading LLC in Chatham, New Jersey, said by phone. “There’s another Brexit poll out and the market just tanked. We’ve got our Fed meeting next week and we’re less than two weeks away from this vote. We’ve had some good gains and nice rally so when a poll late in the afternoon comes out it’s just taking some chips off the table.”
Optimism that drove riskier assets from equities to commodities higher this week may have peaked before meetings by the Fed and the Bank of Japan, Britain’s vote and U.S. political conventions, all of which have the potential to roil markets. Investors also face simmering concerns over the health of the economy, lackluster corporate profits and the effectiveness of central-bank stimulus. While policy makers have tried to shore up economies, they’ve pushed yields lower, hurting earnings prospects for banks.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/futures-tip-more-asian-stock-declines-as-dollar-unsettles-crude