November 28, 2021

Some insight into US Mail shipping and how to package items for it, from someone who hauls it.

Sorry this is a bit long, but I hope to help you, dear reader, understand a bit more of what happens behind the scenes.

First, let me state that I work for a Postal Contractor and I am NOT an employee of the US Postal Service, so I do not speak for them in any official capacity, but I and my coworkers, along with tens of thousands of other drivers in this segment of the trucking industry, have an ID badge that will let me in the back door or onto the loading dock of virtually every postal facility in the country.

Also, this is by no means meant to be a comprehensive look at all aspects of mail transport. I'm just trying to give you an idea of what happens between the time you put a package into the system and when it arrives at the destination.


Last night I ran a short trip to the Post Office in a nearby medium sized city. The dock wasn't too busy so I took the opportunity to grab a few photos of my inbound and outbound loads in order to provide a little insight on how your packages are handled when they move between cities.

The first photo is inside the 53' trailer I pulled down from a large Network Distribution Center (NDC) to this local Processing and Distribution Center (P&DC). The trailer is loaded to the tail with "Gaylord" boxes on pallets. Each box is labeled with the destination zip code for the contents. That piece of paper is what is scanned as it comes off the truck, NOT the individual packages inside. That individual scanning may or may not occur later, depending on what happens to that particular container, whether it goes inside the facility for further sorting or is a "cross-dock" situation where it comes off my trailer and straight onto another truck;



These Gaylords are used year round, but their frequency increases this time of year. They are almost always loaded with parcels or similar bulk items, as opposed to loose, unsorted mail because they are not attached to the pallet. Very often they are loaded with a small fraction of their capacity, as shown below.



Because they are not attached to the pallet, they can and sometimes do slide off the pallet when being moved. This is not a regular occurrence, but it does happen.



The inbound mail has been offloaded and now the outbound is being loaded. These are "General Purpose Containers" or "GPC's (often called "Jeeps" ) and are just about the most common container I and others haul that is on wheels. These are used solely on trucks and NOT on the smaller blue van that comes by your house. Note the yellow metal device. That is a tow bar that has a spring to keep it upright when not in use. It allows these units to be towed by a tug and to have several of them strung together like a train. These tugs are in almost all the larger facilities in the country and are used to pull not only GPC's but the other types of rolling stock I show below. They will move them to and from the loading dock to a particular sort line or crew, depending on mail type and zip code. I took this picture particularly because of the way it is loaded and with what. Those are all identical Priority Mail boxes, probably from the same shipper. Note that they are not stacked neatly. This is because of the massive volume and time constraints in the major sorting centers where this type of mail is handled. There is just no way to properly stack each and every box, so.....bearing in mind the picture directly above, here is the first lesson I want to impart in this thread;

PACKAGE YOUR ITEMS IN A BOX LARGER THAN YOU THINK IS NEEDED AND PAD THE ITEM EXTREMELY WELL, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS FRAGILE IN THE SLIGHTEST.

Writing "Fragile, Handle With Care" on the outside of the package is pointless, trust me. It isn't as if no one cares, its more like, as I said above, the volume handled is just enormous. Postal workers just simply can not take the time to be as careful and delicate with your package as you might think they should be. This goes for UPS and FedEx as well. There is just no point in telling them something they are not prepared (or even able) to pay any attention to, so save your money buying useless Fragile labels or writing on the package!



This is what one of the Tugs looks like. They are able to pull all sorts of different devices and containers. They are all battery powered electric and the operator stands while riding it. Toyota also makes these.



This shot shows the netting that holds the mail in on many of these GPC's. Some have hard metal cage like fronts, but this style is very common. The latches that hold the netting in place can sometimes fail, and mail will fall out onto the floor, so again, package your items with these sorts of things in mind. You can see through the netting that the items inside are literally tossed in there.



GPC's will fit 3 across in a trailer or, when turned sideways, 2 across.



This photo shows the 3 primary types of wheeled containers I carry. On the left is an "OTR" or Over the Road" container, the short, square one is a Rigid Wire container, often referred to as simply a "Wire" as it is a wire framed box on wheels. These can be stacked 2 high and still fit inside a trailer. The ones on the right are more GPC's. I did not take this photo, but it does give an idea of the massive size of some of the buildings in the US Mail system. (Edit: The "CIN BMC" stands for Cincinnati Bulk Mail Center" The use of the descriptor "Bulk Mail Center" has given way to "Network Distribution Center". Even though it says that, the CIN BMC does not really own this unit, they probably stenciled it on there to give it a home. It might sooner or later get back there, but no one is falling over themselves to send it back to southern Ohio!)



This is a shot I took earlier in the year inside a newer P&DC in Portland, Oregon. It's actually right on the Portland Airport property. From that spot to the far wall is about 200 yards. Just on the other side of that yellow upside down "U" shaped bollard is a line of new sorting machines. There is a similar line opposite, on the right. Here is where that building is. It is typical for a major P&DC, but certainly not the largest, by any means, measuring 1166' X 670' or about 18 acres under one roof. This facility has about 85 loading bay doors. The NDC I haul out of regularly has 166. The primary difference between an NDC and a P&DC is the latter "Sorts for the street", handles semi truck traffic as well as straight trucks and loads the blue trucks that come by your house. An NDC handles ONLY tractor trailers and large straight truck traffic and only sorts down to Zip Code.



One of the issues that result in damaged or destroyed mail is improper loading of trailers. It's clear that the Gaylords are no match for a large, aluminum OTR container. What happens sometimes is a Mail Handler will load a trailer with Gaylords and then just before the trailer is to depart, the sort line will send out a couple wires or OTR's at the last minute (Our trips are scheduled like an airline, so this sort of latecomer is not unusual). The equipment is held in place by ratchet straps, so if the heavier equipment is loaded behind the lighter boxes, and no strap is installed to keep them from rolling forward, the Gaylords can and do get crushed when the truck driver has to apply his brakes hard. This sort of thing happens all too frequently but it isn't common, I would say. The facilities that have good dock managers who train their personnel properly and those people are conscientious, tend to make sure that sort of situation is mitigated. It is the often overworked or poorly trained people that load trailers improperly, and that is where problems arise.

Very often I am picking up a loaded trailer with a seal on the door, so I have no idea how it is loaded. Also as regularly, I do a "Swap" where another driver will meet me halfway to a destination and we will swap trailers, and I will have no idea how his trailer is loaded either.

Last year I had a situation where the trailer was loaded improperly and a hard braking incident occurred. 2 or 3 heavily loaded OTR and wire containers slid forward into several lightweight Gaylords, basically destroying them and spilling mail on the floor of the trailer. When the trailer was loaded, ratchet straps were placed across the trailer, holding in the last pieces of rolling stock. But when the braking occurred and the equipment slid forward, these straps are now doing nothing, and it allowed the rolling stock to move about until the trailer hit the dock at the destination. The majority of the mail survived OK and was picked up off the floor of the trailer and placed in a wire for re-sorting but a few pieces were caught under the wheels of the rolling stock and were obliterated.

One piece in particular caught my eye and I picked up what was left of it. It was a small "Baby Yoda" type doll that some loving person was sending to a child, and it would never arrive. The package and the address on the package were completely destroyed so as to make it impossible for it to be reconstructed. The package was no bigger than the item and was basically a toy off the shelf placed in an padded envelope. Based on what happened inside the trailer, the little guy didn't stand a chance. I'm not trying to be flippant here. I was truly saddened to know that this item was lost forever to the sender as well as the recipient. There was absolutely nothing that could be done. It went into the trash.

So PLEASE...package your items for shipment PROPERLY!! Pack them extra well, in a box at least half again as large as the item. Don't use padded envelopes for anything that isn't flat. Use bubble wrap and similar materials for padding inside the box. Consider that you are shipping a fresh egg and the packaging should be such that it can survive being thrown against a wall, or dropped off a 2 story building.

With very few exceptions, the people that work in this industry, both US Postal workers as well as FedEx and UPS really and truly do want to get your packages delivered on time and safely intact, but sometimes things happen that makes this impossible or delayed. You can help by properly preparing your item before it hits the loading dock.

Most of you know this, but the Zip Code is the MOST important line on an address. ALWAYS set the Zip Code apart from the state and if possible, make it a larger type.

Knowing what I know now, when I prepare a label or even a letter, I set out the address like this;

Joe Schmoe
123 Buggerall Blvd
Crapville, OK.
12345

I will make the zip code stand out because postal workers and scanning machines read addresses from the BOTTOM up, not the top down.

If you are at all interested in learning more about the equipment used and the procedures for them, this document discusses them in detail;
https://apwu.org/sites/default/files/po502_0.pdf

Thanks for taking the time to read this through. I hope I have shared some information that you found valuable.

Have a safe, healthy and happy holiday season!

September 30, 2021

Any quote platform or website will have that quote.

The bellweather "Risk Free Security" worldwide is the 10 year US Treasury Note, so that's why I brought it up. The reason it is considered to be so reliable (As it was explained to me by an economist who worked on the "Bond Desk" for AG Edwards, the same brokerage I did) is because it is a bond of substantial duration, that reliably pays periodic interest payments and so far, has NEVER failed to be redeemed at par, in full on the date of maturity. The secondary market for these securities is very deep and well regulated, and unlike most stocks and bonds of other types that settle "Trade plus 3", US Treasury Bonds settle "Same Day". As a result, Treasuries are a VERY liquid security and the purchase or sale of almost any amount of any series is typically accomplished by any bond trading desk at any bank or brokerage on the planet, in seconds. It also means these bonds (and the rest of the Treasury portfolio, for that matter) are in high demand as an interest bearing place to put money that is VERY safe.

Any government or central bank can issue sovereign bonds, but the Ten Year is denominated in US Dollars (as are all US Treasury securities, for that matter), which also happens to be the worldwide reserve currency. It must be purchased with dollars, the interest payments are made in dollars and it is redeemed when mature in US Dollars, REGARDLESS of who is the holder. The US Treasury does not send the Chinese Central Bank (Or whoever holds all their US Treasury Bonds) interest checks or wire transfers in Yuan. It's paid in dollars. It's up to the Chinese (or whoever) to convert those funds back to their own currency on the open market.

My best answer to your primary question is this;

What to watch is the Yield on the note and look for a spike. The price or cost of a bond rises or falls inverse to the yield. Yield up, the price falls, and vice versa. If there are more sellers than there are buyers, as with any open market, the price of the bonds fall and their yield rises. But the spike in yield is going to accompany some very bad news, so little, day to day jumps up or down are normal. There are various web sources for the daily trading results of these bonds, but Yahoo or Bloomberg are as good as any.

No, it's one point five seven -> 1.57 %


You're looking for the yield to spike suddenly on SIGNIFICANT bad/stupid news (likely containing the words "Mitch McConnell" ) and then steadily but dramatically rising over the next few trading sessions. If they raise the debt limit (which I frankly think they will absolutely do, even if it is at the 11th hour) then things will plow along just as they are.


Not sure what you were reading that says 15.17 (fifteen point one seven) (Edit here for further clarification; The 15.17 figure is an Index quote from the "CBOE". It's an index as opposed to a direct quote of bid/ask prices on the latest trade. It does reflect yield, however, Just move the decimal point one spot to the left! My apologies for not being clearer on this point.) but the yield quote would be 1.57%. Is it bad? Well, that depends on who you are. If you are the holder, then it is really very low by historical standards and you are getting peanuts for interest. If you are the US Treasury, and by extension, a US Citizen, then it is good because it means we can borrow money for ten years for...again...peanuts. No, it isn't inherently bad, not by any stretch, but it is exceedingly low from a historical perspective. The 11.54% is how much it went up over the last 5 trading sessions. The yield rose eleven and one half percent in 5 days time, from around 1.36% last Monday to the 1.57% you are seeing in the quote. Not much really, and when this number is looked at over a larger time span, it is a tiny blip on a large screen.

Look at this quote page from Yahoo
At the top right of the little chart is a link for "Fullscreen" Click that and when the large chart opens, hit "Max" at the top, to the right of "Date Range". This will give you a better perspective of where the trend is, and it has been downward for quite some time. Click the Plus or Minus symbols (+ or - ) at the bottom of the chart to increase or decrease the number of years the chart will show. I mentioned in my post above a one percentage point rise would be alarming. That means the yield would go from 1.57% to 2.57% in one day, in an environment where we are barely seeing movements of two tenths of a percent on a daily basis. It would be alarming, but it wouldn't mean a panic, just yet. Five or more straight days of that? Yeah, that would be serious, but you would be well aware of why it was happening by day 2.

Allow me to give a quick explanation about yield;

Yield is a function of price vs redemption value and/or the value of a coupon rate. There is an "and/or" there because the US Treasury sells bonds that do not make interest payments. You can see those here. Note that under the column "Coupon" the 3, 6 and 12 month paper has "0.00" in that column. These are called understandably enough, "Zero Coupon Bonds". They do not pay interest payments on an annual basis. That's because these instruments have very short maturities and the money you make (the Yield) is the difference between what you pay for it and what it matures at, called "Par". The Par value of almost every bond issued in the United States, be it US, State, Municipal or corporate, is $1,000.00 Notice the coupon next to the remaining securities, with the 10 yr being 1.25.

These 10 Yrs we are looking at, according to the Bloomberg page, have that Coupon rate of 1.25%. That means for every $1000 face value bond you hold, the Treasury is going to send you $12.50 a year, divided into 2 payments, 6 months apart. If the bond is currently selling on the secondary market for a grand, the yield is the same as the coupon. But if the bid price is HIGHER than a thousand dollars (called a "Premium" ) , the yield will be lower because you are still getting the interest payments, but when it matures, you will get back less than you paid for it. If you buy the bond BELOW par (a "discount" ), the opposite is true, and therefore the yield is higher.

ALL BONDS MATURE AT PAR - Unless another provision comes in to play, like a specific "Call Provision"

US Treasuries are RARELY called in early.

Again, there will be some VERY BAD NEWS that will precipitate any selloff, but bond traders worldwide are likely to know about it and be reacting to it long before the regular media is able to even put it out. And I'm not talking about any kind of insider trading or anything, it's just that information from the financial wire services traders worldwide are glued to is not something MSNBC or CNN is generally leading every news block with.

I hope that helps a bit. I'm sure I missed something and I'll probably make 20 edits (!) fixing a word here and there, but after having been at this for a couple hours now, I think I should just shut up!

September 29, 2021

Keep an eye on the 10 Year Treasury yield.

It's risen about 20 Basis Points over the last week, but it is merely climbing back to where it was in June (~1.50 % )

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX


A serious spike in yield (a percent or more in a days trading) could indicate a serious selloff, and THAT would be bad news. If confidence in the integrity of Treasury Bonds begins to wane, holders will look to unload them, forcing prices down and yields up.

However, it is important to remember just how low yields are right now. That ten year paper is paying a coupon rate of 1.25% and is currently bid at a discount to par.

A true default would mean either interest payments are not made, or maturing securities are not redeemed on time or in full - or at all (ed. Or both) .

The worst case scenario would be failed auctions. The New York Branch of the Federal Reserve conducts the bond auctions for the Treasury, and if a given series (or several offerings, for that matter) of any paper are seriously undersubscribed, it means the pool of buyers is drying up, and they wont come back till yields go up enough to satisfy perceived risk. If interest payments are not made or a series is not redeemed on time, it is anyone's guess what the rate would be that would bring buyers back.

Keep in mind that during the Reagan years, the yield on the 30 year topped 12% ! Right now that bond is at 2.07% with a 2% coupon.

For perspective, 2% on a million dollars face value of these securities equals $20,000 a year in interest payments to the holder. It's peanuts.

March 1, 2021

I went back up to Crater Lake before dawn this morning. (Lots of pics and vids)

As I mentioned in the other thread, I planned on driving back up and attempting to do a TimeLapse of the sun rising over the lake.

I got that done, and it is included below, but I am not very happy with the way it turned out, frankly. I might have gotten better results using my iPhone 8, instead of this 3 year old iPad, but oh well!

It captured part of what I was hoping to get, and that is the sun lighting up the western side of the Caldera.

I took several other short vids with my phone, as well as numerous photos, all contained herein.

Since I am driving a relay leg that starts at 3:00 AM, getting up really early for a roughly 1:45, 77 mile drive on my only day off was no biggie. I left my hotel just about 4:30 and arrived at the parking area at about ten after 6. It was just above 20 F when I got there, so not too terribly cold, but a brisk wind didn’t make for warm conditions, of course. I do have the cold weather gear, as you’ll see. The only people I saw the entire 2 hours I was there were 3 Park Service Rangers who stopped by to service the restrooms. The only other company was a couple of Ravens who I’m sure found me an annoyance, more than anything!

The lake surface was affected by the winds, so there was no glass smooth reflection like yesterday.
All in all, an interesting and quite different way to spend my morning hours!


Enjoy!

This is what the light was like when I set up the tripod. I wanted to get up there earlier, But...well....you know! Sleep and all!



Short vid after I set up the Tripod

vimeo.com/518261027

A mountain on the eastern rim wearing a lovely pink hue as the sun rose behind it



Toward the west rim



The sun just reaching the top of what I think is “Hillman Peak” on the western rim



Short vid taken about that time. I sound muffled because I put on a full face mask, as the windchill was in the teens, I would guess.

vimeo.com/518266899

One of the two Ravens that were hanging about. Giving me the cold shoulder, it appears!



The lake looked cold and rather angry this morning!



A bit of light at the top of “The Watchman”



The sun completely lighting up the west rim now.



And a vid taken about that time;

vimeo.com/518272467

Necessary headwear at that altitude!



The sun rising over the peak to the east, the shuttered Crater Lake Lodge sleeps and awaits guests that will accompany the spring thaw



And casting my shadow



The sun has reached the lake on the west side! Glorious morning!



And the vid to go with it!

vimeo.com/518274434

And now the TimeLapse. Unfortunately the program I used shut off after about 90 minutes or so! Pissed me off, but oh well. I also moved the tripod a couple times, which was a mistake (I should have just found the right spot to begin with, but I was rushing to catch the light) and I shifted the aim a couple times.

vimeo.com/518284490

A last look as I packed up and headed down



I’ve been lucky in my life to be able to travel as much as I have, and taking little side trips like this when possible makes the days spent on the road all the more worth it.

I hope you have enjoyed these photos and vids as much as I enjoyed putting them together.

Travel as much as you can! Stay safe, folks.

March 1, 2021

I'm in Medford, Oregon. I drove up to Crater Lake. Un Bloody Real. (Video added)

This is from the southern rim. The water was so flat calm, the distant rim was a perfect mirror. This is about 7000’ altitude, and the water is over 1000’ below me.

I have a lot more, and am heading back up before dawn to get a Timelapse of the sunrise

What an incredible spectacle



By the way, I realize that doesn’t look real, but I promise you, it is a real photograph, taken about 4:30 or so Pacific time, today, Sunday, February 28, 2021, on my iPhone 8




It was breathtaking. It was truly hard to discern where the water ended and the land began, the water was so flat calm. Utterly gorgeous.


Here’s the video I took using my tripod

vimeo.com/517983142