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Buzz Clik

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Member since: Mon Dec 22, 2003, 10:13 AM
Number of posts: 38,437

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About these polls: I think CBS/YouGov has it figured out.

Not everyone likes polls, but a well designed poll can be highly informative. Michigan last week on the Dem side did not have good polling numbers, for a bunch of reasons. After standing back, digging in, and discussing this, it was clear that Michigan was NOT an anomaly but a warning about poorly constructed polls.

With about 1/3 of the states' primaries in our rear view mirror and lots of polling data, the pollsters are starting to figure it out. Specifically, CBS/YouGov seems to be nailing it: they have Sanders leading Clinton by 2% in Illinois, a state that fits the Michigan model: an open primary with similar demographics.

I'm going by the assumption that CBS/YouGov has good numbers. So, let's take a look at their poll numbers:
  • Illinois: Clinton 46%, Sanders 48%
  • Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%
  • Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%
    (I cannot find any other YouGov polls for this Tuesday)

    Resulting delegate split: Clinton 279, Sanders 234
    (I'm giving Sanders ALL the undecideds, so this is best case scenario for Sanders with these poll numbers)

    ===========

    Giving Missouri to Sanders by 10% and NC to Clinton by 10%, those delegates get split Clinton 91, Sanders 88

    My projected total for Tuesday only: Clinton 370; Sanders 321

    Running total (pledged only): Clinton 1,145; Sanders 871





  • Photoshopping Trumps mouth onto his eyes:

    SNL Opening: Hillary gets burned, Trump revealed, Cruz ridiculed, and Sanders ignored.



    Delegate estimate from Saturday: Sanders 45, Clinton 51. n/t

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