August 2, 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - August 2, 2016

97 Days to Election



Electoral Models (270 to win)

PEC: Clinton 324.

NYT: Clinton 328.

538 PO: Clinton 310.

538 PP: Clinton 298.

Cook: Clinton 304 (44 tossups).*

R&G: Clinton 332 (15 tossups).*

Sabato: Clinton 347.*


Win probabilities

PEC: Clinton 82%.

NYT: Clinton 74%.

538 PO: Clinton 68%.

538 PP: Clinton 66%.

PredictWise: Clinton 74%.




Recent Polls

General 2-way (YouGov): Clinton 46, Trump 43.

General 2-way (NBC): Clinton 50, Trump 42.

General 4-way (YouGov): Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 8.

General 4-way (NBC): Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 9.


Nevada 3-way (Rasmussen): Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 10.



Comments:

Still under construction.



Methodology

Data for electoral models and probabilities is taken from Princeton Election Consortium, the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight (the polls-only model and the polls-plus model), Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, PredictWise. Entries with an asterisk (*) have not been recently updated. Polling data is aggregated from RealClearPolitics.



Quote of the Day:

"The tax which will be paid for the purpose of education is not more than the thousandth part of what will be paid to kings, priests, and nobles who will rise up among us if we leave the people in ignorance." --Thomas Jefferson

August 1, 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - August 1, 2016

98 Days to Election


Electoral Models (270 to win)

PEC: Clinton 319.

NYT: Clinton 328.

538 PO: Clinton 293.

538 PP: Clinton 299.

Cook: Clinton 304 (44 tossups).*

R&G: Clinton 332 (15 tossups).

Sabato: Clinton 347.


Win probabilities

PEC Drift: Clinton 65%.

PEC Bayesian: Clinton 80%.

NYT: Clinton 72%.

538 PO: Clinton 60%.

538 PP: Clinton 67%.


PredictWise: Clinton 72%.

Betfair: Clinton 72%.

Hypermind: Clinton 61%.

PredictIt: Clinton 69%.

IEM: Clinton 71%.



Recent Polls

General (CBS): Clinton 47, Trump 41.

General (CNN): Clinton 52, Trump 32.

General 4-way (CNN): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 9.

General 3-way (CBS): Clinton 43, Trump 38, Johnson 10.

General (PPP): Clinton 50, Trump 45.

General 4-way (PPP): Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 6.



Penn. (PPP): Clinton 49, Trump 45.

Penn. 4-way (PPP): Clinton 45, Trump 42, Johnson 4.

Missouri 4-way (St Louis Post-Dispatch): Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 9.



Comments:

Under construction.



Methodology

Data for electoral models and probabilities is taken from Princeton Election Consortium (the random drift and Bayesian models), the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight (the polls-only model and the polls-plus model), Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, PredictWise, Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, and Iowa Electronic Markets. Entries with an asterisk (*) have not been recently updated. Polling data is aggregated from RealClearPolitics.



Quote of the Day:

"I believe that, as long as there is plenty, poverty is evil." --Robert Kennedy