Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

marmar

marmar's Journal
marmar's Journal
January 16, 2016

Economic Growth in U.S. Cracking Under Strain of Global Slowdown


(Bloomberg) The U.S. may not be immune from the global slowdown after all.

Figures on retail sales and manufacturing Friday showed the world’s largest economy ended the year on a weak note, and the start of 2016 wasn’t any better. The one saving grace was a pickup in consumer confidence, but that was mainly because households believed inflation will be low, making subdued wage gains look good by comparison.

“The data this morning has been pretty much one way,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a U.S. strategist at TD Securities USA LLC in New York. “It’s fanning some of these fears that the economy is being dragged down into the mud by the rest of the world.”

Weakness in retail sales compounds concerns that momentum in consumer spending, which has been the backstop of U.S. growth prospects, is starting to fade. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China and other emerging markets has sent commodity prices lower and roiled stock markets around the world, exacerbating the plight of manufacturers who are being hit by an appreciating dollar.

The turbulence complicates the task of Federal Reserve policy makers, who started raising interest rates last month on the expectation that U.S. growth would continue to strengthen and inflation will pick up. ................(more)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/economic-growth-in-u-s-cracking-under-strain-of-global-slowdown




January 16, 2016

This is Where Industrial Production Normally Meets a Recession


This is Where Industrial Production Normally Meets a Recession
by Wolf Richter • January 15, 2016


[font color="blue"]The only exceptions were in the early 1950s[/font]

Painful – that’s how you can describe the slew of recent US economic data. And today’s data dump was even worse.

On a regional level, there was the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Current Activity Index plunged to the lowest level since March 2009. The last time it had squeaked into positive territory was in July 2015. The Expectations Index plummeted by an unprecedented 29 points, also to the worst level since March 2009.

Thank God it’s only regional. But wait…. California’s Inland Empire Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks manufacturing in the Inland Empire, started losing its grip in August and in December plunged to the lowest level since the dark days of February 2009.

The report pointed to the link between the index and the overall economy in the region: Historically, when the PMI drops below a certain level, as it did in December, and stays there for three months, it coincides with a recession in the region’s overall economy.

.....(snip).....

And the final shoe to drop today, in a gratuitous sort of way, was the Federal Reserve’s index for industrial production. It fell 0.4% in December, after having already fallen 0.9% in November and 0.2% in September, while August had been flat. Year-over-year, December was down 1.8%.

A year-over-year drop of this magnitude (-1% or more) has been linked to a recession every time it occurred over the past six decades. You have to dig into the early 1950s before you find the last two occurrences where this kind of drop in industrial production was not associated with a recession. .................(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/15/this-is-where-industrial-production-normally-meets-a-recession/




January 16, 2016

"Brick-and-mortar retailers are being taken out the back and shot."


Wal-Mart Rubs Salt on Deepening Retail Wounds
by Wolf Richter • January 15, 2016


[font color="blue"]Brick-and-mortar retailers are being taken out the back and shot.[/font]

With impeccable timing – the very morning that the Commerce Department would report crummy retail sales – Wal-Mart Stores rubbed salt on the wound. It disclosed in an SEC filing that it was “committed to growing,” as CEO Doug McMillon put it, but was “being disciplined about it.”

Corporate speak for shutting 154 stores in the US – its 102 Walmart Express stores, 23 Neighborhood Markets, 12 Supercenters, 7 stores in Puerto Rico, 6 discount centers, 4 Sam’s Club stores – and 115 stores internationally, for a total of 269 stores.

So this will “impact” 10,000 “associates” in the US and 6,000 internationally. Those folks will be given “priority” for open positions at other stores. If that doesn’t work out, they’re on their own with 60 days’ pay and “if eligible, severance.” They’re going to be looking for jobs just when other retailers are also whittling down their headcount.

.....(snip).....

Retail sales were largely propped up by soaring auto sales. Motor vehicle and parts dealers, by far the largest category of retailers with $1.1 trillion in sales for the year, account for 21% of total retail sales. While flat for December, sales for the year soared 7%.

But electronics and appliance retailers weren’t so lucky. Their sales dropped 3.8% in December, after dismal holiday sales, and are down 2.4% for 2015. ......................(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/15/wal-mart-store-closings-brick-and-mortar-retailers/




January 16, 2016

America’s growing student-loan-debt crisis


(MarketWatch) It’s getting harder and harder to graduate college without taking on student loans.

Nearly 70% of bachelor’s degree recipients leave school with debt, according to the White House, and that could have major consequences for the economy. Research indicates that the $1.2 trillion in student loan debt may be preventing Americans,from making the kinds of big purchases that drive economic growth, like house and cars, and reaching other milestones, such as having the ability to save for retirement or move out of mom and dad’s basement.

This student debt crisis has become so huge it’s even captured the attention of presidential candidates who are searching for ways to make college more affordable amid an environment of dwindling state funding for higher education and rising college costs. But meanwhile, the approximately 40 million Americans with student debt have to find ways to manage it.

.....(snip).....

Over the past few decades a variety of factors coalesced to make student debt an almost-universal American experience. For one, state investment in higher education dwindled and colleges made up the difference by raising tuition. At the same time, financial aid hasn’t kept up with tuition growth. In the 1980s, the maximum Pell Grant — the money the federal money gives to low-income students to attend college — covered more than half the cost of a four-year public school, according to The Institute for College Access and Success, a think tank focused on college affordability. Now, it covers less than one-third the cost.

A college degree has also become more necessary than ever to compete in today’s workforce at the same time that Americans’ wages have remained stagnant. That means more students are going to school with less money to pay for it, resulting in an uptick in student debt. ...................(more)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-growing-student-loan-debt-crisis-2016-01-15




January 16, 2016

Chilling Thing Jamie Dimon just Said about the Economy


Chilling Thing Jamie Dimon just Said about the Economy
by Wolf Richter • January 14, 2016


[font color="blue"]“Hopefully… It’s not the beginning of something really bad.”[/font]

JP Morgan Chase is a money-making machine. Profits in the fourth quarter rose 10% to $5.4 billion, bringing the total for 2015 to a record $24.4 billion. But it was a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the rotting – of the type we haven’t seen in six years.

So revenues fell 2% for the year (under GAAP), which is to be expected, given that revenues of S&P 500 companies have fallen for four quarters in a row, according to FactSet. It’s been the worst revenue recession since 2009. It’s tough out there.

Total assets at the bank fell 3% to $2.35 trillion during the quarter, which CFO Marianne Lake explained this way during the earnings call this morning (transcript via Seeking Alpha): “The balance sheet was down in part purposefully and a little bit because of market conditions at the year end.”

But JP Morgan did what American companies do so well: it cut costs to more than make up for the revenue declines.

This cost cutting included over 5,000 layoffs across its four major business units – corporate and investment banking, consumer and community banking, asset management and commercial banking – with the first 1,000 folks already gone by May 2015 when the layoffs were first reported. At the time, the bank announced it would also overhaul its 5,000-plus branches, with technology replacing some humans. .....................(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/14/chilling-thing-jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-just-said-about-the-economy/




January 15, 2016

Wal-Mart to Shut Hundreds of Stores


(Bloomberg) Wal-Mart Stores Inc. plans to close 269 stores, including its experimental small-format Express outlets, in a push to streamline the chain that will eliminate 16,000 jobs.

The move by the largest private employer in the U.S. affects 154 locations domestically, according to a statement Friday. Overseas, the effort includes the closing of 60 money-losing stores in Brazil, a country where Wal-Mart has struggled. The plan will affect less than 1 percent of its total square footage and revenue, the company said.

Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon took the step after reviewing the chain’s 11,600 stores, evaluating their financial performance and fit with its broader strategy. The move also marks the end of its pilot Wal-Mart Express program, a bid to create a network of small corner stores that began in 2011. Wal-Mart will continue its larger-size Neighborhood Markets effort, though 23 poor-performing stores in that chain also will be closed.

“We invested considerable time assessing our stores and clubs and don’t take this lightly,” McMillon said. “We are supporting those impacted with extra pay and support, and we will take all appropriate steps to ensure they are treated well.” ............(more)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/wal-mart-to-shut-hundreds-of-stores-including-express-locations




January 15, 2016

Chilling Thing Jamie Dimon just Said about the Economy


Chilling Thing Jamie Dimon just Said about the Economy
by Wolf Richter • January 14, 2016


[font color="blue"]“Hopefully… It’s not the beginning of something really bad.”[/font]

JP Morgan Chase is a money-making machine. Profits in the fourth quarter rose 10% to $5.4 billion, bringing the total for 2015 to a record $24.4 billion. But it was a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the rotting – of the type we haven’t seen in six years.

So revenues fell 2% for the year (under GAAP), which is to be expected, given that revenues of S&P 500 companies have fallen for four quarters in a row, according to FactSet. It’s been the worst revenue recession since 2009. It’s tough out there.

Total assets at the bank fell 3% to $2.35 trillion during the quarter, which CFO Marianne Lake explained this way during the earnings call this morning (transcript via Seeking Alpha): “The balance sheet was down in part purposefully and a little bit because of market conditions at the year end.”

But JP Morgan did what American companies do so well: it cut costs to more than make up for the revenue declines.

This cost cutting included over 5,000 layoffs across its four major business units – corporate and investment banking, consumer and community banking, asset management and commercial banking – with the first 1,000 folks already gone by May 2015 when the layoffs were first reported. At the time, the bank announced it would also overhaul its 5,000-plus branches, with technology replacing some humans. .....................(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/14/chilling-thing-jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-just-said-about-the-economy/




January 15, 2016

Retail sales fall again, end 2015 with whimper


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales at U.S. retailers fell slightly in December, as 2015 recorded the slowest pace of gains since 2009.

Retail sales dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.2% decline.

For all of 2015, retail sales grew just 2.1% even though job creation remained strong and more people earned an income. By contrast, sales expanded by an average rate of 5.1% from 2010 through 2014.

Much — but not all — of the year’s weakness in sales can be explained by plunging gasoline prices. Sales at gas stations, for instance, sank 1.1% in December following a 1.3% decline in November.

Still, overall sales in 2015 were on the softer side, at least in dollar terms, even after gas is stripped out. Sales minus gasoline rose a lackluster 3.9% last year despite record purchases of new autos. ...................(more)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-fall-in-december-end-2015-with-whimper-2016-01-15



January 15, 2016

U.S. Stocks Plunge at Open After Chinese Stocks Enter Bear Market



(Bloomberg) Stocks fell around the world, with U.S. equities headed for their lowest since August, and bonds jumped as oil’s plunge past $30 sent markets reeling. Treasuries extended gains as U.S. data did little to calm nerves frayed by concern that global growth is slowing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 300 points, European stocks were poised to enter a bear market and the Shanghai Composite Index wiped out gains from an unprecedented state-rescue campaign. Oil plunged past $30 a barrel as Iran prepares to export into a global supply glut. A measure of default risk for junk-rated U.S. companies surged to the highest three years. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell under 2 percent for the first time since October, while the dollar extended its longest rally since July. Gold surged with the yen on haven demand.

Crude’s drop to a 12-year low is sending shock waves around the world at the same time concern is mounting that China’s policy interventions will fall short of stoking growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Energy firms are laying off workers and currency markets from commodity-producing countries are in turmoil. The slump is also denting the outlook for inflation around the world, causing traders to curb bets on how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.
“Markets have to go through several stages and right now they’re just holding their head and crying,” Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds Inc. in New York, said by phone. “The drama and issue overnight is more related to oil prices not finding a floor. If it was just China and everything else was OK, we’d see through that. But when China is down and oil drops everyday, the market recognizes it has substantial issues.” ...................(more)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/asian-stocks-poised-to-track-rebound-as-oil-recovers-bonds-drop




January 15, 2016

Carly Fiorina, unhinged





In an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, following the so-called “undercard” debate for the GOP also-rans, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina launched a vicious and personal attack on Hillary Clinton that clearly disgusted the Hardball host.

During the debate, Fiorina sniped at Clinton without mentioning her name, saying, “Unlike another woman in this race, I actually love spending time with my husband.”

Pressed by Matthews whether the Clinton’s have a “real marriage,” Fiorina smirked and repeated, “They’ve been married for a really long time,” over and over again as he rephrased the question.

After being accused by Matthews of avoiding answering the question, Fiorina went off the rails as she attacked the Democratic front-runner while an appalled Matthews looked on.

“There are so many other things we could talk about like the fact that Mrs. Clinton wants to go to the White House — she’s qualified for the big house,” Fiorina said as she dropped all pretense of fake smiling for the camera.”She should be prosecuted. She has not been prosecuted for things that took a great warrior out of office, David Petraeus.” ..............(more)

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/01/watch-carly-fiorina-goes-bonkers-after-desperate-attack-on-hillary-clintons-marriage/




Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Detroit, MI
Member since: Fri Oct 29, 2004, 12:18 AM
Number of posts: 77,073
Latest Discussions»marmar's Journal